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Beto of Everton is a prime anytime goal scorer. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)

Premier League best bets: Crucial battles await for first and fourth place

By Alyssa Clang | Last updated 3/6/24

Welcome to Matchday 28 of the Premier League season. Last week threw up some surprises (Timo Werner scoring, West Ham looking competent for the first time in a hot minute) but largely delivered exactly what we expected from a mid-season run of fixtures.

City played with its dinner, allowing United to score a banger of a goal before ripping its heart out in the second half. Arsenal scored more goals than you could count on one hand. And Liverpool, merchant of late-game chaos that it is, scored an injury time header to keep its title race in check. Who scored that header, you ask? Why, Darwin Nunez, of course, in perhaps the first weekend we didn't back him to do so against lower-table opposition. We're thrilled it finally happened but kicking ourselves for missing it.

This weekend looks exciting up and down the table. We've got a battle for the title coming between Liverpool and Man City plus a battle for fourth between Aston Villa and Spurs. Where are the best bets in all of this? We think they're here:

Manchester United vs. Everton — Saturday, March 9, 7:30 a.m. ET, USA Network. These two are having eerily similar seasons: both are dealing with waves of bad press, underperforming English center forwards and listless tactics on the field. It's easy to forget that United are sixth and Everton are 16th: this one feels much, much closer than that, and the odds reflect it.

Great soccer is all about the creation of space, the stretching of players and passes like taffy on a candy pull. These days, the most important players on the field are wide ones like Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden: they provide that width, that stretch, that gives teams more ground to explore.

So it's shocking to look at United's and Everton's possession maps and see just how little time both spend working in the wings. Their match on Saturday just might be the most centralized and narrow game of the season: only Sheffield United cedes control of the wings more than United and Everton do.

We think a draw is interesting here at +260. But given the centrality of United and Everton's play, we're also eyeing Everton's Beto — the clearest out-and-out striker on the field — as an anytime goalscorer at +275.

Crystal Palace vs. Luton Town — Saturday, March 9, 10 a.m. ET, USA Network. Palace's Selhurst Park is one of the toughest venues in English soccer: It's cramped, it's loud, and its stands are so close to the field that fans can just about reach out and smack the players they're rooting against. Lots of teams struggle to play well there. But if any team could break through the literal and figurative noise, it's Luton — proud owners of the only stadium in England that feels more vicious.

Luton's recent league results aren't great (it has four losses from its last four games) but it's been playing surprisingly well for a team in the middle of a poor streak. Palace, meanwhile, is dealing with a brand-new coach and an injury to one of its best players. If Luton wants turn its season around, Selhurst Park is the place to do it. We like a Luton win here at +350; we think Luton could've (and probably should've) won far more often this season.

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham Hotspur — Sunday, March 10, 9 a.m. ET USA Network. This game is a headliner — it'd be the tastiest prospect of the weekend if Liverpool and Man City weren't dancing with destiny a few hours later. (We'll get to them tomorrow.) While neither Villa nor Spurs is realistically competing for the title, they're both hot in the running for England's final Champions League place, which is traditionally awarded to the team that finishes fourth. Villa has a lock on the spot right now, but a loss to Spurs here could see the gap between them shrink to just two points.

This one is too close to call; while our hearts say Villa, our brains see Richarlison, Son and Werner and get all confused. One thing is for certain: there will be goals in this one. Villa lets in a shocking amount of goals — its expected conceded goals are the highest in the league —but it's flying high in fourth because it scores buckets in turn. We like backing Villa to score in both halves at +150: it's done precisely that in four of its last five Premier League fixtures.

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