Winners and losers from Day 1 of 2023 NHL free agency

We now sort through the wreckage as Day 1 of 2023 NHL free agency winds down. A market that looked like the weakest in recent memory got a late injection of talent Friday with the buyouts of Matt Duchene and Blake Wheeler, among others, and the UFA class suddenly looked more appealing by the time the market opened at noon ET on Saturday. In the end, a typical Day-1 feeding frenzy ensued. Per CapFriendly, 163 contracts had been handed out totaling more than $638M, as of 8:00 p.m. ET on July 1. Strong market or weak market, the GMs can never help themselves.

So far, we’ve seen coveted targets such as Dmitry Orlov, Ryan O’Reilly and many more find new teams on lucrative multi-year pacts. So who are the winners as Day 1 of free agency draws to a close?

Disclaimer: Teams that don’t appear in any category either (a) Did fine but didn’t stand out as big winners or losers (i.e. Arizona Coyotes) or (b) had already wrapped up a lot of offseason business and weren’t busy July 1 (i.e New Jersey Devils).

THE WINNERS

Arizona Coyotes

No, the Coyotes and GM Bill Armstrong didn’t blow the doors off. But it was refreshing to see them making moves to be competitive and not just reach the salary floor for a change. Jason Zucker, Alex Kerfoot and Nick Bjugstad stand out as their best additions of the day. Each bringing a viable two-way game, they legitimize a forward group that was already on the rise after Clayton Keller busted out for a career year in 2022-23. Now, Yotes fans can only hope the additions motivate Keller to stay put.

Carolina Hurricanes

Only three teams have more regular-season wins than the Hurricanes in the five seasons since Rod Brind’Amour took over as head coach. Yet the Canes have not been able to reach a Stanley Cup Final in that time. A turbulent 2024 offseason looms in which, for now, Sebastian Aho and Brett Pesce become UFAs and Seth Jarvis and Martin Necas become RFAs, with several other prominent Canes going to market. So this summer marked a crucial window for GM Don Waddell to do something aggressive. In Dmitry Orlov, the Canes got the No. 1 free agent on the market and made the best defensive team in the NHL somehow even deeper. They also ran it back by re-signing the goaltending tandem of Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta for a combined $4.9M in cap space. With the waiver-exempt Pyotr Kochetkov still locked up four more seasons, the Canes are again three-deep in quality goaltenders. Still – keeping pucks out was not their problem. This is already the best defensive team in the NHL. The Canes finished 15^th in goals per game this past season. It was thus crucial to find help at forward – and Carolina got it by signing Michael Bunting, an efficient scorer coming off consecutive 23-goal seasons, at an affordable AAV of $4.5M over the next three seasons. One of the best teams in the NHL might have allocated its resources differently than I expected it to on July 1, but this team undoubtedly got better.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The Jackets already made their splashy acquisitions in June with Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson. But I wanted to give them a July 1 shoutout for convincing 2023 third-overall pick Adam Fantilli to turn pro and sign his entry-level deal. The Hobey Baker Award winner had already torn the NCAA Div. I circuit up and had little left to prove at Michigan. He’s ready to step in and play a prominent role immediately. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen told me at the draft, Fantilli isn’t coming in to be a checker. While the Mike Babcock hire as head coach is highly questionable given his reputation for mental abuse of players, Columbus is an offseason winner in the sense that its player personnel is vastly improved for 2023-24.

Dallas Stars

The Stars are blessed with franchise pillars to build around for years to come in Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger. That said, a significant portion of their lineup lands in the wily veteran tier, from Joe Pavelski to Tyler Seguin to Jamie Benn. While they await the likes of Wyatt Johnston and, eventually, Logan Stankoven to ascend, the Stars sit in a mildly urgent window to take a shot at a championship. Adding Duchene, who became arguably the best UFA forward on the market upon being bought out by the Nashville Predators Friday, at an affordable $3M for one year was a coup. He’s a major upgrade in the slot Max Domi occupied during the 2023 postseason. Duchene has always struggled with his consistency, but he’s just a year removed from a career-best 43-goal, 86-point campaign. And it’s been a long time since he played on a team with as much talent as Dallas has right now. Best of all, for the first time since he was on his entry-level pact, he’s playing at an AAV that takes the pressure off. Sam Steel was a decent depth addition for Dallas’ bottom-six forward group to boot.

Edmonton Oilers

The Connor Brown contract is a stroke of genius. He slides into what should be a vital role for the Oilers at the barely there cap hit of $775,000, with potential for performance bonuses pushing it up to a $4M value that would carry into next season. Brown’s lengthy LTIR stay this past season in Washington due to a season-ending knee injury made him eligible for the bonus structure despite the fact he’s only 29. He averages 16 goals and 40 points per 82 games in his career and has a history of tremendous chemistry with Connor McDavid. The pair lit it up together with the OHL’s Erie Otters. Brown is a lovely fit to play the right wing on one of Edmonton’s top two lines, and he’s a renowned shorthanded scoring threat to boot.

THE MURKY MIDDLE

These teams don’t qualify as clear winners or losers but still warrant discussion because they made some noteworthy moves Saturday.

Detroit Red Wings

Steve Yzerman keeps adding up the middle. After backing up Dylan Larkin with Andrew Copp last season, he landed two-way maven J.T. Compher, who was legitimately one of the top pivots available in the depressed market. While he won’t score in Detroit like he did with Mikko Rantanen in Colorado, Compher will be useful in a shutdown role. On the other hand: Compher’s defensive acumen is offset by, er, whatever Justin Holl was doing out there for the Maple Leafs. Lacking in confidence and seemingly tilting the ice for the Leafs’ opponents every shift during the playoffs, Holl could be a worthy reclamation project for a lower-pressure market in theory given his past success as a penalty killer. But at $3.4M per for three seasons, there was no discount on the signing. The additions of Daniel Sprong and Shayne Gostisbehere fortified Detroit’s depth, but the Holl head scratcher put a damper on things.

Florida Panthers

The Panthers had a busy day rebuilding their blueline, adding the likes of Nikko Mikkola, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mike Reilly. Add their cap hits together and you get some respectable patchwork from GM Bill Zito. But all these additions are left-shot blueliners. The Panthers’ holes are on the right side with Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour having shoulder surgeries. With Dmitry Kulikov also added Saturday, the Cats have a glut of lefties. They only have so many contracts they can hand out; are they planning to play multiple D-men on their off sides? The fits of these deals seem a bit awkward.

Los Angeles Kings

Argh. The Kings were so close to calling it a banner week. The Pierre-Luc Dubois acquisition was quite the statement for a team ready to go all-in. The Cam Talbot signing was not. A goaltending tandem of Joonas Korpisalo and Pheonix Copley couldn’t get L.A. past the Edmonton Oilers in Round 1. The Kings seemed like prime candidates to chase a higher-impact name in net, be it Thatcher Demko or Connor Hellebuyck. A Talbot-Copley tandem (with David Rittich as a No. 3) feels no better than what they trotted out in 2022-23 and perhaps a little worse. The Kings suddenly enter 2022-23 with a weak spot in their armor. Unforced error by GM Rob Blake.

Ottawa Senators

On one hand, it’s nice to see GM Pierre Dorion attempting a big flex by signing Korpisalo to get his team over the hump and into the playoffs next season. But it’s hard not to feel PTSD over the failed four-year contract Ottawa handed Matt Murray in 2020. With his hip surgically repaired, Korpisalo looked like a new goalie this past season, especially after the Kings acquired him at the trade deadline, when he posted a .921 save percentage across 11 starts. But his subpar playoff performance served as a reminder that he’s anything but a sure thing. Yet four years on a $5M cap hit is sure-thing money. It feels like a boom/bust bet, which is always scary when you’re dealing with arguably the most fickle position in pro sports.

Pittsburgh Penguins

It was clear from GM Kyle Dubas’ introductory presser with the Penguins that the team would push forward attempting to contend as long as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang were around. Did Dubas’ first flurry of moves push Pittsburgh closer to that goal? It’s debatable. Ryan Graves is a nice addition as a sturdy defensive defenseman, and Noel Acciari is one of the handier bottom-six bludgeoners in the league. Lars Eller will also help remedy the Pens’ forward depth problem. But circling back to the inconsistent, injury-prone Tristan Jarry as a No. 1 goaltender – for five years at $5.375M annually – leaves an unappetizing aftertaste. It’s a hit/miss day for the Pens.

New York Rangers

I love the Blake Wheeler signing. Factoring in his buyout money, he’s taking just an $800,000 AAV to play for a contender, and he fills a hole on the Rangers’ right wing. So why aren’t the Rangers in my winners section? For one, they still need to add another scoring-line right winger, in my opinion, assuming both Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are gone. And secondly, I’m not convinced Jonathan Quick has anything left. He’s a shaky backup addition behind Igor Shesterkin, a hyper-athletic goalie who, like Quick in his prime, carries a bit more injury risk than your average statuesque blocker goalie. The late-day addition of underrated offensive defenseman Erik Gustafsson was nice, though.

Washington Capitals

Someone was going to make the smart play and ink Max Pacioretty on a cheap, bonus-laden deal just like Brown’s in Edmonton. I don’t love that it was Washington, a team on the decline, who did it. But at least with Patches on a one-year contract, he could be movable at the Trade Deadline next year, assuming his injured Achilles co-operates this time.

THE LOSERS

Anaheim Ducks

A rebuilding team can’t just marinate in a losing culture forever. I get the idea, in theory, of bringing in battle-tested veterans Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas in hopes of leveling up the Ducks’ culture and creating a stronger support system for youngsters like Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson. But to give four years at $6.25M per and three years at $4M per two a pair of 33-year-olds…the term was likely what helped GM Pat Verbeek successfully land them, but neither contract is set up to age well. Term is a killer.

Boston Bruins

I like the James van Riemsdyk signing. He’s a cheap replacement for Taylor Hall as a third-line left winger. But as of now, the Bruins have lost Orlov and Connor Clifton from last year’s blueline. They’re poised to lose Tyler Bertuzzi. They’ve already traded Hall. They may or may not lose Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to retirement. JVR, Milan Lucic and Kevin Shattenkirk are not enough to mitigate the damage. This team has gotten worse, clearly.

Nashville Predators

The Preds are likely the day’s most polarizing team. New GM Barry Trotz came out swinging, prying defenseman Luke Schenn and center Ryan O’Reilly away from the Toronto Maple Leafs and adding Gustav Nyquist to boot. My take: sigh. The Predators appeared to finally be embracing a team reset when they traded Mattias Ekholm and Tanner Jeannot for futures, moved out half of Ryan Johansen’s cap hit and bought out Duchene. You’re a new GM who already has legendary status in your city and thus has a massive runway. You’ve just created financial breathing room on a team that needs to bottom out and start drafting players with true star potential. And then you…immediately paper over the roster holes with multi-year deals for veterans in their 30s? Why? I don’t care how much character Schenn and O’Reilly bring. The Predators had a chance to stop living life on the playoff bubble, and they undid everything in a matter of hours.

New York Islanders

Ilya Sorokin is truly special. It feels like it’s only a matter of time before he secures a Vezina Trophy. So, Mr. Lou Lamoriello, I tip my cap to you for signing your stud to an eight-year, $66M deal. Re-upping backup Semyon Varlamov was fine, too. But to hand out seven-year contracts to useful but ultimately middling players in Pierre Engvall and Scott Mayfield was ludicrous. The AAVs are the problem. Engvall’s next 20-goal season will be his first. Mayfield is a solid defensive defenseman but quietly already 30 years old. The Isles, who have missed the playoffs two years running, went all-in to get Bo Horvat leading up to the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline, and they appear to be doubling down on mediocrity by locking up relatively low-impact talent around him.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Walking out the door on Brad Treliving’s first July 1 as Leafs GM: Bunting, Schenn, O’Reilly, Acciari. Maybe losing Justin Holl was addition by subtraction, but when the influx of signed talent consists of Ryan Reaves and John Klingberg plus some spare parts, the Leafs appear to be on shaky ground as their contract negotiations for 2024 UFAs Auston Matthews and William Nylander ramp up.

Reaves will undoubtedly bring entertainment with his magnetic personality and seems to brighten every dressing room he enters. He also remains one of if not the most feared enforcers in the NHL. But the Leafs have been down this road before with the likes of Kyle Clifford and Wayne Simmonds: fourth-line toughness doesn’t help you much in the playoffs when those players barely see the ice. The Leafs need to add some heaviness to play higher in their lineup. Not bringing the heavy: pure puck-mover Klingberg, whose game has regressed badly in recent seasons and who has become a defensive black hole. Moving to a market that has chewed up and spit out the likes of Holl and Jake Gardiner doesn’t feel like an ideal fit – despite Klingberg’s long history as a top-tier offensive defenseman in the league. He was slightly better post-trade to the Wild this past season, but even then, opponents got roughly 54 percent of the scoring chances when he was on the ice at 5-on-5. It’s tough to look at Toronto’s Day 1 moves and believe this team is improved or even anywhere near as good as it was just two months ago.

Too early to know…

I’ve created a bonus tier for teams so inactive today that I’m trying to reserve judgment.

Calgary Flames: Roster is in a state of flux as we wait on the status of Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin.

Minnesota Wild: Welcome to your buyout penalty years, Wild. Not a ton of cap space, need to save some for RFA Filip Gustavsson, so a quiet July 1 was expected.

Montreal Canadiens: Little happening July 1, but not a big deal for rebuilding squad.

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