What Can We Learn From the Maple Leafs’ Defense Plus/Minus?

Before we start to examine players, we want to add the context that the Maple Leafs have scored 203 goals while allowing 173. That is a difference of +30.

What Do These Plus/Minus Numbers Tell Us About the Team’s Defense

What Does the Plus/Minus Reveal About TJ Brodie?

There’s a narrative that Brodie has had a horrible season. Some fans say that, at 33 years of age, he’s over the hill and should be traded so the team can get a true top-four defenseman. We’ve also read that Brodie is a shadow of his former self, that he plays too much, and makes too many mistakes to be in the Maple Leafs’ top-four pairings. More recently, we’ve heard analysts suggest that, since Morgan Rielly has been out with a suspension, Brodie has been moved to his natural left side, and he’s been playing better. However, before that, he was not playing well.

And yet, here is Brodie with by far the best plus/minus of any defenseman on the team at plus-21. That sounds like he is doing more things right than critics suggest, especially when you see that his usual partner is Rielly, who, despite scoring 43 points in 50 games played, is just plus-1. Brodie is still playing the same 21-plus minutes he has averaged in previous seasons with the Maple Leafs, and using plus/minus as a standard, he’s doing pretty well.

Interestingly, before Rielly’s five-game suspension, Brodie was a plus-14. That means, with Rielly away, he’s improved by plus-7 in five games. At plus-21, as simple as can be stated, he’s been on the ice for a significant number of goals scored by the Maple Leafs while, at the same time, he’s successfully limiting goals against when he’s on the ice. These plus/minus numbers suggest that he’s been more of a key contributor to the team’s success in both offensive and defensive aspects of the game than expected.

What Does the Plus/Minus Reveal About Liljegren, Giordano & Timmins

At plus-7, Liljegren also boasts a positive plus/minus, although not as high as Brodie’s. His rating suggests that he’s been solid defensively and has made a positive impact when on the ice. Also, at plus-7, Liljegren is down from the plus-24 he was last season and the plus-15 he was the season before that. However, in the past two seasons, Liljegren has played almost exclusively in a sheltered bottom-six role. 

This season, he has played more in the top four and has been given tougher assignments. As well, since Riley has been out, Liljegren’s plus/minus has increased by plus-4 as he’s taken a larger role in the team’s defense. He’s been more than holding his own regardless of the situation, which the plus/minus suggests.

The next highest defensemen in plus/minus are 40-year-old Giordano at plus-6, and Conor Timmins, who struggles to stay in the lineup, at plus-5. Giordano is playing over two minutes less a game this season than last. The lowering of his ice time might be the thing that helps Giordano be his best at his age. Meanwhile, perhaps, as my THW colleague JP Gambatese noted in his post earlier this week, Timmins should be playing more.  

Jake McCabe has taken on a much more important role for the Maple Leafs this season. While not setting the league on fire, he’s holding his own at plus-5. Lagesson, when needed, has played the opposition even on the third pair. The same can be said of Benoit at minus-2. 

The plus/minus for Benoit is especially interesting when you consider he provides little to no offense while giving the Maple Leafs a physical edge they so desperately need. He’s been drawing more difficult matchups as he’s gained the coaches’ trust and more ice time. Taking his play this season into consideration to compare it with his horrible minus-29 rating last season with the Ducks allows Maple Leafs fans to better understand how his last season makes a bit better sense.

A Final Word About Plus/Minus as a Rating Tool

We want to close by stating once again that plus/minus has its flaws. That is why other ways of evaluating players and evaluating them in as many ways as possible are important. But, as a statistical measure, the plus/minus statistic does tell us something. 

Defensively, this Maple Leafs team can always get better. However, a look at plus/minus statistics suggests that the defensive core of the Maple Leafs is holding its own. 

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]