Salary cap deep dive: Winnipeg Jets

Let’s start with the biggest name on the list in Laine. His preference for a trade doesn’t matter a whole lot for this exercise; and knowing it’s a contract year with plenty on the line -- even if he isn’t thrilled about his situation -- it shouldn’t affect his play. There’s no denying that he is one of the better pure goal-scorers in the league, but there’s also no denying that he’s one of the streakiest scorers in the league. With a $7.5 million qualifying offer on the horizon, Laine will need to improve on his consistency if he wants to land more than a nominal bump on that if it goes to arbitration. A long-term deal might not be as lucrative as it could have been a couple of years ago considering the current financial landscape, but Laine should be one of the highest-paid wingers in the league next year if one can be reached – with Winnipeg or another team.

Stastny was brought in as a cap dump from Vegas, but this is a good landing spot for him. He’s familiar with the system and could see a small uptick in minutes. While he’ll re-enter the market subject to 35+ caveats in July, he’s still a capable middle-six center and should be able to command longer than a one-year deal -- although it will have to come with a notable dip in pay. Perreault is still a serviceable player who can move up and down the lineup but someone with that skill set should be making about half of what he currently is, and that should be his market rate this summer.

Lowry is a player who could very well be hit hard by the current financial situation. The hope that he’d be able to provide more offense has largely faded and instead, he’s someone that should have between 20-25 points in a normal season while winning a fair share of faceoffs and providing some physicality. That’s definitely an effective role player, but teams will be trying to squeeze their lower-line options for financial savings, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of a raise. Copp saw a lot of time in the top six last season, and the offensive results weren’t really there.  He’ll need to be better at that end if he wants to get much more than his $2.3 million qualifying offer. Thompson and Toninato were brought in for extra depth down the middle, and their spots will be filled by similarly priced depth players if they don’t re-sign for next season; neither should be expected to command much more than the minimum on the open market.

On the back end, Pionk vastly exceeded expectations in his first season in Winnipeg and appears to be well-positioned to land a long-term deal this offseason and if his point per game rate this season is similar to that of 2019-20, doubling his AAV isn’t out of the question. Forbort had a rough season injury-wise a year ago, which cratered his market this fall but before that, he was a 20-minute per game player. He should have the opportunity for similar ice time, and if he can stay healthy, he could re-enter free agency in July with a considerably larger number of suitors. Poolman’s progression has been slow and steady so far. He already has shown himself to be capable of handling a third-pairing workload, which on its own should help earn him a small raise. If he can work his way into number four minutes, however, he could be one of the more intriguing unheralded options in free agency next summer. Sbisa was an effective depth player last season, but it’s hard to anticipate his market growing substantially after having to wait until 2019-20 started before he could get a deal last season.

Brossoit’s second season with the Jets wasn’t anywhere near as good as his first as he went from high-end backup numbers to low-end. Nevertheless, he got a small raise but will need to be closer to his 2018-19 numbers for that to happen again next offseason.

Two Years Remaining

F Mason Appleton ($900,000, RFA)
D Nathan Beaulieu ($1.25 million, UFA)
F Jansen Harkins ($725,000, RFA)

Appleton has been in and out of Winnipeg’s lineup the last couple of years in a limited role.  If he remains primarily a fourth liner, he won’t have much leverage in securing a bigger deal two years from now with his arbitration eligibility potentially working against him at that time. Harkins made his NHL debut last season and did enough to convince the Jets to give him a one-way deal at the minimum for both seasons. He’ll need to work his way into a regular role for his arbitration eligibility to work in his favor in 2022.

Beaulieu hasn’t lived up to his first-round draft billing but since joining the Jets, he has been a serviceable option on the third pairing. That earned him this two-year guarantee, but it’s unlikely he’ll be able to land much more than that on the open market unless he can step into a spot inside their top four.

Three Years Remaining

The Jets don’t have anyone on their roster whose contract expires in 2023.

Four Years Remaining

D Dylan DeMelo ($3 million, UFA)
G Connor Hellebuyck ($6.166 million, UFA)
F Bryan Little ($5.292 million, UFA)
F Mark Scheifele ($6.25 million, UFA)
F Blake Wheeler ($8.25 million, UFA)

Wheeler has been one of the faces of the franchise since the team moved from Atlanta and was recognized for it by this deal, one that takes him through his age-37 season. There is definitely some risk in the last year or two, but he is still a top-line player and even acquitted himself well having to play down the middle for extended periods last season. Scheifele’s deal seemed like a bit of a risk at the time considering that he had only one 20-goal campaign under his belt at the time it was signed, but it has turned into one of the better bargains in the league as he has emerged as a legitimate front-line center. Little, another long-time Jet, played just seven games last season and has been ruled out for the season as he continues to recover from a perforated eardrum after taking a shot to the head. He’ll be eligible for LTIR which will get Winnipeg into cap compliance.

DeMelo has certainly seen his stock rise. He was only two years removed from a non-tender by San Jose, only to re-sign for $900,000 a week into free agency. He hit his stride after being traded to Ottawa and fit in quite well with Winnipeg after the Jets acquired him before the deadline. This was certainly a big raise, but he’s worth the price if he plays at a similar level throughout this contract.

Hellebuyck has had a heavy workload the past three seasons and has held up quite well overall, even taking home the Vezina Trophy in 2019-20. Without a top goalie prospect in Winnipeg's system, this is going to be his spot to hold for a while and at a price tag that’s barely $1MM above the median above starting goaltenders, this has become another bargain for GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

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Five Or More Years Remaining

F Kyle Connor ($7.142 million through 2025-26)
F Nikolaj Ehlers ($6 million through 2024-25)
D Josh Morrissey ($6.25 million through 2027-28)

Connor has shown offensive improvement each season and surpassed the point-per-game mark for the first time in his career last season as he tied for the team lead in scoring. The contract likely isn’t a bargain in the current financial landscape but it was certainly a fair deal at the time it was signed. Ehlers rebounded nicely last season after struggling considerably in the first year of this contract. At that price tag, the Jets need only second line production from him to get a good return and aside from his off year in 2018-19, he has been able to provide that over the last several seasons.

Morrissey isn’t an ideal No. 1 defenseman but he has been pressed into that role by default by the departures of several veteran blueliners recently. While he isn’t going to be among the top-scoring defenders, he’s above average in the offensive end and strong in his own zone. He’s being paid like a No. 2 defender, which is arguably a better spot for him on their depth chart; and if he continues to show improvement while holding down that No. 1 role, they’ll do quite well with this contract.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

F Jack Roslovic – Another player who is seeking a trade, the 2015 first-round pick hasn’t quite lived up to expectations yet. While he has been a capable complementary player, he was drafted as a center but has been moved off the position despite the Jets looking for additional help down the middle for the last few years. He’s not in a spot to command a long-term deal, so a one or two-year bridge seems likely whether it’s with Winnipeg or elsewhere if the Jets can find room for him.

Best Value: Scheifele
Worst Value: Perreault

Looking Ahead

Cap space has been an issue for Winnipeg in recent years, and 2020-21 will be no different in that regard. While the Jets will be able to get back into compliance with Little, they won’t have a lot left over if they wind up signing Roslovic or acquiring another player to take his place on the roster. LTIR room doesn’t accrue over the season on a daily basis like regular cap space, so the Jets won’t be in a position to try to add a significant player closer to the trade deadline.

The good news?  Relief is on the horizon. Yes, Laine will be owed another raise if he’s still around by then, but that is easily offset by the money coming off the books from pending UFAs. While GM Kevin Cheveldayoff will have several roster spots to fill with the nearly $30 million in projected cap room, he should be able to add another notable player to the Jets, perhaps on the back end to replace some of the veterans Winnipeg lost last year.