Rangers’ Adam Fox Deserves More Hart Trophy Consideration

McDavid is the overwhelming favorite to win the NHL’s Most Valuable Player award. He’s on pace to shatter his own personal best of 123 points from last season. He has an outside shot of achieving both 60 goals and 150 points.

However what isn’t getting enough attention are the other players having good enough seasons to warrant Hart consideration. McDavid’s teammate Leon Draisaitl is second in the NHL in scoring but still trails first by 18 points.

Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Tage Thompson, Jason Robertson and Jack Hughes are all having strong seasons and would each get more consideration in other years. On defense, Erik Karlsson is having a resurgent year sitting tied for fourth in scoring in the entire NHL. Certainly his name will be on many Norris and some Hart lists. Rasmus Dahlin is enjoying a major breakout season for the Sabres and deserves some consideration.

There is a player though who continues to be a superstar on their team but isn’t getting the attention he deserves. His team is comfortably in a playoff spot. He continues to get better with each passing game. Although he doesn’t have some of the offensive numbers that others have, his overall impact on the game is among the best in the NHL.

While other Rangers get attention such as Artemi Panarin, Igor Shesterkin and now Vladimir Tarasenko, Adam Fox is quietly putting together not only another Norris-worthy season, but also a Hart-worthy season.

Fox’s Offensive Success at Even Strength

Our Rangers’ writer Brendan Azoff did a nice job recently summarizing Fox’s season and why a second Norris trophy is well within reach.

Offensively, Fox continues to play at a near point-per-game pace. He enters action this week with 50 points in 53 games including 10 goals. Those 10 goals are just one off his career high of 11. What makes his goal scoring more impressive is the fact that 19 of his last 21 goals have come at even strength. He has just one power-play goal and one shorthanded goal going back to the start of the 2021-22 season.

Then when Fox is on the ice, the Rangers hold a 26-11 edge at 5-on-5 in HDGF/GA (high-danger goals for and against.) That’s an over 70% clip. Translation? Good things happen when he’s on the ice doing his thing.

When compared to other Norris contenders, Fox ranks second in 5-on-5 points for defensemen with 27. Only Karlsson’s 47 are ahead of him. Dahlin has 25 while Dougie Hamilton, Josh Morrissey and Vince Dunn have 24 each.

Where Fox starts to separate himself from the rest of the pack for the Norris and into the Hart conversation is his defensive impact.

Fox’s Defensive Impact

While Karlsson is running away with the offensive part of the argument, he cannot hold a candle to Fox on the defensive side. That’s what will make the Norris vote extremely interesting this season. Will the voters go with the highest scorer or the best all-round player, which is the very definition of the award?

Not only is Fox making major contributions offensively, his defensive play is a big reason why the Rangers are comfortably in a playoff spot. The Rangers don’t allow many goals when he’s on the ice.

In very simplistic terms, at 5-on-5 going into this week’s action, Fox has been on the ice for 26 goals against while Karlsson has been on the ice for 57 goals against. Fox has played 932:54 at 5-on-5 minutes this season. There are many other factors that go into defensive efficiency, but this at least paints a basic picture. Fox also has a higher xGF% of all the Norris contenders. Fox is at 64.38% while Dahlin is 56.84% and Karlsson is 56.15%.

The thing that ultimately elevates Fox to Hart consideration is the overall impact he has on the game as compared to other top players. According to Dom Luszczyszyn of the Athletic, Fox is currently tied for second in the GSVA metric at 3.6, used to measure a player’s value this season (From 2022-23 NHL GSVA Leaderboard, The Athletic, Dom Luszczyszyn, 2/8/2023). The only player ahead of that pack is the clear front runner McDavid at 4.1. That group includes Karlsson also which demonstrates his dominance offensively this season.

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While both Karlsson and Fox have compelling Norris cases, Fox elevates himself in the Hart race because of his overall play both offensively and defensively. He is the Rangers’ best player and it’s not even really that close. Without him, the Rangers are likely fighting for a wildcard spot. With him, not only are they comfortably in the playoffs, they become a threat in the Eastern Conference.

When considering who falls just behind McDavid for the Hart, Fox’s overall play has him right in that conversation. He’s been that good and that dominant.

All 5-on-5 stats provided courtesy of Nat Stat Trick unless noted otherwise.