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Quinton Byfield’s breakout season is on the horizon

Originally posted on Hockey Royalty | By Russell Morgan | Last updated 8/10/23

No LA Kings player sits under a microscope quite like Quinton Byfield. Much of that attention trends toward the negative side, but with plenty holding out hope he can live up to the high expectations that come with being a number two overall pick.

When diving into the numbers toward the end of last season, however, including a bit of bad luck coupled with a new home in the lineup, 2023-24 should see the ‘Byfield Bandwagon’ take off leaving the haters behind.

Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe

Playing alongside future Hall-of-Famer Anze Kopitar on the Kings can be intimidating. Not to mention extremely difficult. Kopitar is a constant on LA’s top line matching up against their opponent’s toughest competition, while also looked upon to produce as one of the team’s top offensive units.

It’s historically been a revolving door of players having their go on the wing with Kopitar and his new running mate Adrian Kempe on the first line, with many unable to stick.

That continued to be the case throughout the first half of last season until January 1 when a surprising new face emerged on Anze’s wing in Quinton Byfield. And the addition paid off.

The move for Byfield unlocked a new level in his game with the LA Kings. From January 1 to the end of the season, the 20-year-old registered 19 points in 42 games for a 0.45 points per game rate. Almost doubling his career 0.24 ppg rate prior to his transition from the center ice position to the wing.

In those 42 games, Byfield was tied with Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Brayden Point for 20th in the NHL among all forwards in assists-per-60 minutes during 5v5 play with 1.76, according to NaturalStatTrick.com. And the line was among the best in the league in goal differential posting a 73.8 GF% second only to the Bunting-Matthews-Nylander trio in Toronto.

Highest GF% from a line this season (min. 250 mins):

75.0% — Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
73.8% — Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe
72.4% — Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman
72.0% — Eichel-Stephenson-Stone
70.8% — Krejci-Zacha-Pastrnak

Is LA running this line back next season? pic.twitter.com/z4fBA40KNH

— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) July 30, 2023

Even with Byfield’s improved overall play, the outside negativity endured. A lot of that noise pointed toward the lack of goal-scoring during his time with Kopitar and Kempe. With only three goals in that stint on the top line, the haters still had their ammo. But there’s more to the story.

Bad luck

There’s no math formula to quantify luck in the game of hockey. But a player’s individual shooting percentage compared to their on-ice shooting percentage is a decent indicator. And one that bodes well for Byfield’s future outlook.

Perhaps best illustrated by JFresh Hockey’s Individual vs. Linemate Finishing Chart. Portraying a league-worst differential for Byfield’s on-ice shooting percentage and his goals scored above expected.

While the line of Byfield-Kopitar-Kempe ended the season with an on-ice shooting percentage of 12.65% (5th in the NHL), Byfield’s individual shooting percentage was a dreadful 1.82% during 5v5 play, eighth-worst among all forwards in the NHL during his time on the top line.

In fact, that is the lowest shooting percentage among all LA Kings forwards with a minimum of 500 minutes played dating back to 2007. A stark difference between his former teammate Gabe Vilardi’s 5v5 shooting percentage of 18.28% which happened to be the best by an LA Kings player since 2007.

A good place to begin for Byfield to improve on his finishing ability is plain and simply hitting the net. According to MoneyPuck.com, 39.4% of Quinton’s unblocked shots missed the net, the eighth highest among NHL forwards.

So be cautious if you’re fine throwing around the ‘bust’ word mentioning Quinton Byfield. With an improvement in puck luck even just to league average, coupled with more power play time, and potentially a full season on the top line, the 2023-24 season should be a good one for the LA Kings young star.

This article first appeared on Hockey Royalty and was syndicated with permission.

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