Potential Devils’ Defense Targets to Replace Dougie Hamilton

In Hamilton, the Devils are losing a truly elite, puck-moving, right-handed defenseman with top-of-the-league offensive metrics. In the 20 games he’s played, Hamilton boasts an expected goals share (xG%) of 57.78%, good for 12th in the NHL among defensemen with at least 300 minutes at 5-on-5. Under the same restrictions, Hamilton sits second in the league in expected goals for per-60 minutes (xGF/60). It certainly won’t be easy to replace the star blueliner, but there are some potential fits that the Devils could look at.

Noah Hanifin

First on the list is Calgary Flames’ star Noah Hanifin, who has been surrounded by a whirlwind of trade rumors since it was revealed that he was reportedly uninterested in signing an extension. Even more recently, it was reported that the Flames offered him an eight-year, $60-million contract in November which he turned down as he was unsure of the direction the team was heading in. All that culminates in an expiring unrestricted free agent who is more likely than not to be moved by the trade deadline.

Hanifin, much like Hamilton, is an elite puck mover. He contributes a ton of shot assists, consistently and easily finding the open men in transition, is an excellent zone entry guy himself, and is more than capable of logging the heavy minutes that Hamilton logged. This season with the Flames, Hanifin has an xG% of 52.49% and an xGF/60 of 2.91, 26th in the NHL. He is also a more-than-adequate power-play quarterback, and could find a home on the second unit — in fact, his excellent skating and ability to swerve past defending players could prove useful in transition on a second unit which lacks a real zone entry threat.

Calgary has made it clear, with the Nikita Zadorov trade to the Vancouver Canucks, that they’re selling on their expiring free agents. Hanifin, their number one two-way defenseman, sits as their most sought-after player, and as such will be expensive to acquire. I would anticipate that the Flames would ask for a first-round pick and a young, NHL-ready player — perhaps Kevin Bahl, Nolan Foote, or Graeme Clarke — in return.

Ethan Bear

Ethan Bear is currently an unrestricted free agent, coming off of an off-season shoulder surgery which will keep him out until late December. He most recently played with the Vancouver Canucks in 2022-23, who have expressed interest in re-signing him once he returned from injury — though they had the opportunity to extend a qualifying offer to the right-handed defenseman and bailed on that once he underwent the knife. In addition to that, their recent acquisition of Zadorov might complicate things on their blue line, and the 26-year-old might be more inclined to sign with a team where he won’t be the seventh option.

Bear is reportedly going to choose his next team soon, and while the Washington Capitals are the frontrunners to land him, anything is possible and the Devils should absolutely consider signing the puck-mover. In his last three seasons, he has posted xGF%s of 55.55%, 55.59%, and 50.80%, respectively. Just two seasons ago, with Carolina, he had an xGF/60 of 3.15, which would be good for 13th in the league this season with a 200-minute minimum. The most appealing part of acquiring Bear is his acquisition cost. Not only would the Devils not have to move anything in a trade, but his cap hit would likely come in at roughly $1 million — leaving the Devils with ample cap space to make another move should they desire to do so.

Mike Matheson

If there were one defenseman in the NHL who likely profiles more as a forward than a defenseman, it’s Mike Matheson. He’s a silky-smooth skater, possesses phenomenal hands, and is an aggressively positioned blueliner in the offensive zone. He’s had a rough go of it this season despite what the box score might tell you, but he’s probably more of a victim of the Montreal Canadiens’ overall poor play considering the success he’s had in prior years. Oh, and he can do this.

Much like Hamilton, he’s well known for his offensive aptitude rather than his defense, but he still has had a positive defensive impact over the last three seasons. He doesn’t shoot nearly as much as Hamilton does, but he’s an expert at perfectly placing slap passes for deflections and rebounds. As far as acquisition cost goes, the Devils now have $9 million in cap relief, so Matheson’s $4.875 million cap hit wouldn’t be an issue at all. He’s been their bona fide number-one rearguard, so peeling him from the Canadiens would likely cost a pretty penny. The Devils sit without a second-round pick, so the options would likely be either moving a first-round pick and a B-level prospect like Chase Stillman, or a third-round pick, fourth-round pick, and a higher-profile prospect like Seamus Casey.

Tyson Barrie

On Dec. 2, Nashville Predators general manager Barry Trotz announced that Tyson Barrie would be scratched in their battle against the New York Rangers and that he would be allowed to speak to other teams — indicating that a trade is the most likely scenario for the 32-year old Canadian blueliner.

Barrie certainly has his issues — he’s not particularly apt in terms of defense. He, like a couple of Devils defensemen (including Hamilton), occasionally has pretty big lapses in judgment that turn into scoring chances for the other team. There’s no arguing against his offensive ceiling, though. He’s been one of the better puck-moving rearguards in the NHL for many seasons now:

As you can see from the chart above, and as you likely already know from his years in Edmonton, Barrie is also excellent at quarterbacking a power play. He dishes the puck out incredibly well, allows his forwards to gain space in the offensive zone and is more than capable of shooting through a screen in an area where it’s easily tipped by the net-front presence.

In 2023-24, Barrie has been atrocious, there’s no denying it — hence Trotz’s decision to put him on the trading block and scratch him. This season, he sports a 45.11% xGF% and an xGA/60 of 2.95 — the highest of any Nashville Predators player with at least five games played by a significant margin. Given the historical data here though, it’s more than possible that it’s just a fluke season for the veteran. He’s proved his offensive capabilities for years at this point — it’s entirely possible that he just didn’t mesh well with Nashville’s style and players.

Given that he’s actively being shopped and scratched, and that he’s having a down year, he might be cheaper than expected to acquire. I would anticipate that Nashville, much like Calgary, wants young NHL-ready talent and draft capital for the blueliner. I’d say that something like Foote or Chase Stillman and a fifth-round pick would get the job done.

Nemec Might Not Be the Solution

Simon Nemec has filled in amicably in his few games in the NHL, owning a 56.62% xGF% at 5-on-5 so far this season. At the end of the day, though, his rookie mistakes have cost the Devils several goals already, mostly due to his overly aggressive, rover-style play on the back end. Even Barrie, who has a less-than-preferable impact in his own end, at least positions the way that a defenseman should, generally leading to fewer odd-man rushes. Nemec is obviously a very talented player in the offensive zone, but at the cost of defensive sturdiness. One of these defensemen is likely worth a look for the Devils in terms of replacing the impact of Hamilton to the best of their capabilities.