Panthers Should Be the Favorites in Playoff Rematch vs. Bruins

The Bruins ran with a top line of Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie and David Pastřnák in Game 7 against the Maple Leafs. Of course, Bruins coach Jim Montgomery could mix that up to start the series against the Panthers. But if they stick with that line, the Carter Verhaeghe, Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk unit should be licking their chops. Zacha had no goals and two points against the Maple Leafs, while Geekie totaled two goals and three points. 

Even if Panthers coach Paul Maurice mixes up his lines when Sam Bennett returns (he is out for Game 1), the Panthers forward depth is significantly better than the Bruins. Anton Lundell would slide down to the third line to center Evan Rodrigues and Vladimir Tarasenko, leaving Bennett with Sam Reinhart and Eetu Luostarainen. Compared to the Bruins’ third line of James van Riemsdyk, Trent Frederic, and Justin Brazeau, the Panthers seem to have a much deeper forward group. 

The Bruins did go 4-0-0 against the Panthers during the regular season, but I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. Florida had an xG% of 50 percent or better at five-on-five in each matchup. They just fell short each time; three of the four games were decided by one goal. They are the better team and should have their way at five-on-five. There’s just one thing that may be standing in their way. 

Could Swayman Steal the Series?

The Maple Leafs can’t score goals if their lives depended on it in the playoffs, but that doesn’t take away from how good Jeremy Swayman was in their first-round series, especially early on when Toronto played some of their better games. Swayman finished with a .950 save percentage across six games in Round 1 while saving 7.59 goals above expected. 

You may look at that as a Panthers fan and get understandably concerned. Those numbers are outstanding, but a .950 SV%, even in the playoffs, probably isn’t sustainable. I’d expect those numbers to regress, and the fact that the Panthers should be the better team at five-on-five means Swayman should face more quality looks than he did against the Maple Leafs. 

If the Panthers finish their chances and get pucks past Swayman, I don’t think they’ll have much trouble defeating the Bruins. They should feel confident since they got plenty of pucks past Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first round and made him finish that series with a save percentage below .900. 

Just like the first-round series, Sergei Bobrovsky could be the great equalizer to Swayman as he was to Vasilevskiy. He was just nominated for the Vezina Trophy after posting a .915 SV% during the regular season. He only finished with an .896 SV% in the first round, but still outdueled Vasilevskiy. And it’s not like he didn’t make ten-bell or timely saves to keep the Panthers in games. There were plenty of those. 

His SV% being below .900 isn’t a significant concern because, like the Lightning series, the Panthers should outplay the Bruins at five-on-five most nights. He likely won’t need to win or steal games for the Panthers. He just needs to be better than his counterpart in Swayman. If he is and doesn’t lose games for the Panthers, I don’t anticipate any problems in net. 

Special Teams Should Be Even

The Bruins’ special teams units are coming into this series hot. They ended the first round with a power play that converted on 35.2 percent of its chances and a penalty kill that killed off 95 percent of the Maple Leafs’ power plays. The caveat is that the Maple Leafs’ power play and penalty kill struggled in the regular season, which seemed to carry over into the playoffs. 

That might mean the Bruins’ special teams units overachieved a bit in the first round. If we look at how each team’s special teams units performed during the regular season, they were about even. The Panthers and Bruins’ penalty kills both finished at 82.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ power play converted at 23.5 percent, while the Bruins were at 22.5 percent. 

Judging by that, which might still be the better indicator than their first-round series, the Panthers and Bruins seem to be about even in special teams. I wouldn’t anticipate one team having the edge over the other, but that should be an advantage for the Panthers since they should be the better five-on-five team. It’ll probably be difficult for the Bruins to win the series if they don’t dominate on special teams.

X-Factors

Anton Lundell

Lundell moved up into the top six after Bennett’s injury and performed more than admirably against the Lightning. Most of those minutes came alongside Verhaeghe and Tkachuk, but it looks like he’ll start Round 2 alongside Luostarainen and Reinhart. Lundell finished the first round with a 56.38 xG% at five-on-five and totaled four points in five games. Whether it’s as the second- or third-line center, he could be the team’s X-factor like he was against the Lightning at times.

Charlie Coyle

Coyle had a career season, finishing with 25 goals and 60 points in 82 games. Still, the Bruins will need more from him than he provided against the Maple Leafs. No goals and two assists in seven games won’t cut it against a much better Panthers team. If he shows up, he could help give the Bruins a chance at the upset. 

Panthers Should Come Out Victorious

Everyone remembers last year’s first-round series between these two teams, but these are two completely different clubs. The Bruins are not as good as they were in 2022-23, and the Panthers are much better than they were heading into that first-round tilt against the Bruins. 

The Panthers are the favorites here because they have a deeper and more talented roster than the Bruins. Swayman could steal a game or two for the Bruins, but can he steal an entire series? I wouldn’t put it past him, but I wouldn’t consider it likely. The Bruins may be motivated to exact revenge on the Panthers for last year’s playoff meeting, but Florida will likely be too much in the end. 

Prediction: Panthers in 6

* * *

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick