NHL futures: Rangers worth a Stanley Cup bet

Backing the New York Rangers at +1500

New York is currently 32-14-8 (72 points), owners of the longest winning streak in the NHL at six games. The Rangers are third in the Metropolitan division behind New Jersey (75 points) and Carolina (78), and they feel likely to take on the Devils in the first round.

The Rangers gained our attention when they acquired former All-Star RW Vladimir Tarasenko from St. Louis. Tarasenko won a Stanley Cup with the Blues in 2019 and has solidified what is widely considered one of the best three forward lines in the NHL.

Tarasenko has slid in nicely for New York, grabbing two points in three games, with the Rangers scoring six goals in all three of those games.

The Rangers now sport a balanced roster from top-to-bottom. Mika Zibanejad is one of the league's top scorers, while forward Artemi Panarin and defensemen Adam Fox each rank inside the top 15 for assists this season.

It's the roster construction that has us confident New York can make a run here. Nine quality forwards gives teams fits no matter who is on the ice, and Fox headlines a strong group of defensemen. The kicker is between the pipes, as Igor Shesterkin — the 2022 Vezina Trophy winner — is widely regarded as one of the top goaltenders in the league.

Stats to back it up

New York has been on a tear over the past 25 games or so, solidifying themselves as one of the league's best teams. Over their last 25, the Rangers are the only team to rank inside the top-five for goals per 60 minutes and goals allowed per 60.

New York ranks third in both categories when looking at all strengths, averaging 3.71 GF/60 and 2.45 GA/60. Now, expected goals and expected goals against may be the preferred barometer that you wish to judge a team, but even then the Rangers rank above average in both categories. 

This rank is certainly buoyed by New York on the power play. Over the past 25 games, the Rangers top the league in xGF on the PP with 10.52 xGF/60. They pair that special teams dominance with a stout penalty kill as well, with their xGA/60 the 11th stingiest in the league.

If you prefer more traditional metrics, New York's power play scoring rate ranks eighth best over the last 25 games at 23.2%, while their PK is 10th-strongest, killing penalties at a 82.8% rate.

For the sake of transparency, there is a potential flag for the Rangers when skating 5v5, as their xGF/60 rank sits at 27th. There could be some luck involved here, because when you look at their last 10 games, no team is averaging more Goals For/60 minutes on the 5v5 than New York.

Do you value experience?

Heading into the 2022 postseason, New York was widely regarded as a young team that could compete, but few had them making much noise in the playoffs.

In the first round, the Rangers went down 3-1 to Pittsburgh before storming back and winning in seven games. In the second round, New York again went down to division rival Carolina 3-2 before winning the last two games and advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. 

The Rangers won the first two games against the Lightning at home before dropping their next four games, as the two-time defending champs advanced to their third straight Stanley Cup final.

With much of the team still here in 2023, that postseason experience seems like a valuable thing to hang their hat on come this season's playoffs.

Potential early-round matchups

With the NHL's relatively new playoff structure, we can pretty much guarantee who the Rangers would face in the first two rounds. Unless Pittsburgh makes up a ton of ground in the next two months, it will be New Jersey and Carolina in New York's way until a trip to the Conference finals.

The Devils have won two of three matchups this year and have been one of the surprise teams this season. Over the last two years, New York has won 10 of 13 against New Jersey.

The Rangers have had the Hurricanes' number up to this point, winning each of the first two matchups this season and scoring five or more goals in each. New York has now beaten Carolina in six of their last seven meetings.

How we're feeling

There's plenty of time between now and the postseason, and the East figures to be a battle. Despite that, the Rangers just seem to have everything you could hope for in a Stanley Cup future. A stacked roster at forward, defensemen and goalie, prior postseason experience, and favorable numbers to support their success.

We'll certainly spread the net a bit on the futures market, but our first bet goes to New York.

Betting: New York Rangers to win the Stanley Cup (+1500 FD)