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NHL best bets: Two plus-money SOG props for Friday in the NHL

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 3/31/23

Fridays in the NHL tend to be a bit wacky, so we've strayed off the beaten path to turn over some stones we may not typically catch on a normal packed night. We found two SOG bets at plus-money, and there's plenty to like about each.

Artemi Panarin over 2.5 SOG (+115 DK)

The Rangers should find more opportunities for offensive success tonight against Buffalo, a team that has really struggled defensively at home. Over the past 20 days in their arena, the Sabres are leading the NHL with 5.0 goals allowed per game and are fourth with 34.0 shots allowed per contest.

Tonight, Buffalo will be trotting out a rookie goaltender making his professional debut, Devon Levi. Now, Levi is here thanks to his success at the lower levels, so rather than fade his ability to stop the puck, I prefer loading up a SOG prop.

My view is that the Rangers will want to pepper Levi early and often as a "welcome-to-the-league" present. So very kind of them.

Panarin is my preferred choice to get in on the action. The Rangers winger has finished with four shots on goal in three of his last four games, averaging 5.5 attempts per game. His volume is the best I'm seeing from the Rangers end, and Panarin has racked up plenty of quality games against Buffalo the past few years.

He's gone over 2.5 SOG in eight of his last 10 meetings with the Sabres, averaging 4.0 shots/game during that stretch.

In a game in which I expect the Rangers to rack up shots, Panarin's recent success and history against Buffalo make him a natural choice at a terrific price.

Mackenzie Weegar over 2.5 SOG (+148 FD)

Now this one is unique. I wouldn't be surprised if not many are backing Weegar's over today; he has after all only gone over this 2.5 mark in 31% of his games this year. However, there's been a marked jump in his volume over the past few Calgary games.

On the season, Weegar is averaging just 4.2 shot attempts per game. Curiously, he's exploded over his past three. Those three in question, Weegar finished with attempt totals of 12, six and eight, resulting in 10 total SOG. Seeing such a jump after so many games with less than five attempts catches the eye.

Let's say for a moment that Weegar can maintain this volume. Over the past two seasons, when Weegar has finished with 6+ attempts, he's gone over this 2.5 line in 46 of 57 games - good for 81%.

Now it's a jump to project he finishes with six attempts or more again, but clearly he's getting more involved in the offense, and it's something I'd like to jump on.

Vancouver has allowed the eighth-most shots per game to defensemen over the past 10, making this all the better. Calgary is a desperate team, a few points back from a Wild Card spot. I expect them to get their usual stream of pucks on net, and at this price, I'm on the Weegar train tonight.

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