Kucherov’s 4-Point Night Keeps Him in the Thick of Award Races

All season, the Lightning have dominated the first period, and Kucherov continued this trend, scoring his 29th goal of the campaign to make it 2-0.

He also helped produce both goals in the second, with a power-play goal, his 30th of the season, to make it 3-0. He then picked up the primary assist on Mikey Eysimont’s power-play goal to make it 4-2, to regain a two-goal cushion after 40. Finally, he scored the second empty-net goal and final marker of the night to complete the hat trick and get point number four.

Kucherov’s performance not only helped keep the Lightning in a playoff spot – they’re in third place in the Atlantic Division – but he also continued to build his case to take home some hardware at the end of the season.

Keeping Pace in Art Ross Trophy Race

Kucherov now has 80 points – the first player in the NHL to reach the mark this season. According to Lightning beat writer Chris Krenn, Kucherov joined an exclusive group.

He also leapfrogged Colorado Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon to retake the lead for the Art Ross Trophy. MacKinnon has 77 points, and Kucherov trailed him by one point heading into the game against Philadelphia.

These two forwards are starting to pull away in the Art Ross race as no other player has reached 70 points yet. David Pastrnak is third in the NHL with 67 points, and it drops off from there.

It’s a two-player race for now, but one player might have something to say about it. The reigning Art Ross winner for the last three seasons is the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid. In years past, McDavid has been the runaway candidate. Last season, he won the trophy with 153 points, beating the runner-up (teammate, Leon Daisaitl) by 25 points. In the first of his three consecutive wins, he scored 105 points in the 56-game COVID-shortened season when no one else reached 90.

This season has been different for him, but that does not mean he’s down for the count. McDavid is clawing his way back into the race after a slow start, with 47 points in his last 27 games. At this pace, he could net 67 more points, which would put him at 127 on the season.

However, Kucherov is currently on pace for 137 points – nine more than his career high of 128 set in 2019 when he won the Hart Trophy. However, if McDavid turns on the jets a little more or if Kucherov has a cold spell for even a handful of games, it’s suddenly a tighter race.

Kucherov’s Status in the Hart Trophy Race

Kucherov is also very much in the hunt for what could be his second-career Hart Trophy. But he has to win the Art Ross to win the Hart, so he’s either taking home both or he’s going home with neither. However, winning the Art Ross could be a moot point altogether. Here’s why.

The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Auston Matthews is on pace for 70 goals, a mark that hasn’t been reached in over 30 years. While he’s far behind in points, with 56, a historic milestone in goals could be enough for him to win the Hart. Scoring 60 goals was enough for him to win it in 2021-22, and that was after reaching a mark we had waited a decade to see, let alone three. However, Matthews’ chances fully ride on reaching this milestone. If not, he’s out of the race.

Kucherov will also need his team to make the playoffs. Only three players have ever won the Hart Trophy and missed the postseason. That’s right. Only three, and there aren’t many Mike Trout-type MVP seasons going around (if you know, you know).

Even if the Lightning make the playoffs and Kucherov wins the Art Ross, he will have to show that he’s been the standout force on his team to win the trophy. There’s no doubt he has been. No one is questioning this, but how does he compare to other team MVPs?

While he’s kept the Lightning in the playoff race, McDavid pulled his team out from the bottom of the standings and into a playoff spot. The Edmonton Oilers have won 14 in a row, and the streak is still active. Meanwhile, the Avalanche have once again been a force with MacKinnon. The voters will remember that.

Kucherov’s four four-point games are more than McDavid and MacKinnon, who both have three. Matthews has two. That is one way he’s making an impact, but what else helps his case?

For starters, Kucherov has five game-winning goals (GWG) this season – he trails MacKinnon by one. However, Kucherov has had the game-winning goal in 20% of his team’s wins, the same as MacKinnon (six GWG in 30 wins). So, while MacKinnon has more game-winners, he’s producing them at the same overall rate as Kucherov. Meanwhile, Matthews has three game-winning goals (13% of wins) and McDavid only has one (3% of wins).

So, what about players like Elias Pettersson (eight GWG) and Sam Reinhart (9 GWG) who are better examples? Fair enough. Here’s a look at a few more advanced stats that show Kucherov’s impact:

He leads the NHL in: Goals created (29.8) and goals created per game (0.63). This stat weighs a player’s offensive production against the team’s overall production. Plain and simple, he’s making the biggest impact on the Lightning and the biggest impact of any player on any team. Here’s how the competition stacks up:

Then there are point shares (PS) – a stat that determines how many team points a player is responsible for. Kucherov leads all forwards in the NHL in total points shares with a 9.2 PS (he trails defenceman Quinn Hughes by 0.2) and has the highest offensive points shares (OPS) – which measures a player’s contribution solely through offense – with a 7.8 OPS. Here’s how others stack up:

Kucherov still has them all beat.

So, while it’s great that he is making his case on the scoresheet, which remains an important factor in winning the Hart, he’s also making a big impact relative to other star players in more advanced stats. One of the main factors in being named the NHL’s most valuable player is how much they contribute to their team’s success. Kucherov certainly has a case.

He will continue to make his case to win some hardware this season when the Lightning return to action on Thursday night against the Arizona Coyotes.