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Ilya Lyubushkin’s Promising Start with the Maple Leafs

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By The Old Prof | Last updated 3/8/24

A week ago, the Toronto Maple Leafs re-acquired 29-year-old physical stay-at-home defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin from the Anaheim Ducks. The trade came shortly after the Arizona Coyotes game ended on Feb. 29. In reacquiring Lyubushkin for a second time, the Maple Leafs sent their 2025 third-round draft pick to Anaheim. In return, Anaheim retained 50 percent of Lyubushkin’s $2.75 million cap hit. Toronto also sent a 2024 sixth-round pick to the Carolina Hurricanes. In return, the Hurricanes agreed to retain 50 percent of Lyubushkin’s remaining salary-cap hit.

Carolina then sent the rights to 24-year-old Russian left winger Kirill Slepets to Toronto. The 5-foot-10, 165-pound Slepets was drafted in the sixth round (152nd overall) during the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. Slepets presently plays for Khabarovsk Amur of the KHL. He has eight goals and 19 points in 53 games this season. In the end, the Maple Leafs got the rights to Slepets as well as acquiring Lyubushkin for just 25 percent of Lyubshkin’s cap hit ($687,500).

Since he came to the Maple Leafs, Lyubushkin has now played two games. What might these two games suggest about what he might offer the team moving forward?

Lyubushkin Has Begun His Second Go-Round with the Maple Leafs

This is Lyubushkin’s second go-round with the Maple Leafs. He was first acquired at the 2022 trade deadline from the Arizona Coyotes along with Ryan Dzingel and Toronto’s 2025 second-round pick for Nick Ritchie and a conditional draft pick.

In the 2022 postseason, the Maple Leafs paired Lyubushkin with Morgan Rielly in the top four of their defensive core with so-so results. In Toronto’s seven-game loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, according to Natural Stat Trick at 5-on-5, Lyubushkin was on the ice for 17 high-danger chances for and 15 high-danger chances against. That’s a 53 percent success rate.

However, he was also on the ice for three goals for the Maple Leafs and four goals against his team, which is only a 42 percent rate. As well, he had an expected goals share of 46 percent. (Anything over 50 percent is a positive, and anything under 50 percent is a negative).

At 5-on-5, Rielly’s numbers were slightly better, a 50 percent goals for percentage (5 for and 5 against) and a 50 percent high-danger chance share (26 for and 26 against). Rielly’s expected goals share was 49 percent.

Lyubushkin’s Numbers Were Generated in His Top-Pairing Role

However, the numbers above were achieved by moving Lyubushkin, who has primarily been a third-pairing defenseman throughout his career, into a top-pairing role. Flashing forward to the present, when Rielly was serving his five-game suspension, the Maple Leafs used a top-four of Timothy Liljegren and TJ Brodie on one tandem and Jake McCabe with Simon Benoit on the other pairing.

Because head coach Sheldon Keefe did not want to break up the other two pairs at 5-on-5, when Rielly returned, Keefe paired him with William Lagesson as part of the third pairing. Rielly still played on the first power-play unit and got extra ice time with other defensemen, as determined by game situations. However, the basic idea was to keep the other four pairings together as much as possible.

If Keefe were to use that same setup with Lyubushkin taking Lagesson’s place, it would mean that Lyubushkin would be playing in a more comfortable third-pairing role that he is better suited for. Is that the plan? So far, it’s been a bit up in the air. However, what Lyubushkin has brought to the Maple Leafs after two games seems to be a solid partner for Rielly, as well as positive analytics.

In Two Games, Lyubushkin Has Shown Well as Rielly’s Partner

In just two games with the Maple Leafs, Lyubushkin has already made a significant positive impact. For some reason, he’s showing far superior analytics on the ice than many expected. To my eyes, he’s shown more offensive instincts than I had previously seen. He’s shooting more and seems more engaged in the offense.

Less than a week ago, we thought Lyubushkin would be lost to the Maple Leafs after suffering a concussion when he received a controversial hit by Matt Rempe of the New York Rangers. However, he not only returned without missing any time but also emerged as the team’s standout defenseman statistically. He has been the Maple Leafs’ best defenseman statistically in both games this week.

In the Boston Bruins game on Monday, he was on the ice for eight shots for the Maple Leafs and only three shots against them. He registered an expected goals share of 72.8 percent at 5-on-5. In Wednesday’s game against the Buffalo Sabres, Lyubushkin’s metrics were remarkable. He was on the ice for 13 shots for his team and only two shots against them. He put up an outstanding expected goals share of 94.3 percent.

Why Ilya Lyubushkin was the right fit for the Maple Leafs: https://t.co/mOFXAMUBZy
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) March 1, 2024

He’s been solid in his play thus far in the Maple Leafs’ defensive lineup. He’s also shown the ability to contribute effectively in crucial situations. With just two games under his belt, Lyubushkin has already proven to be a valuable asset for the team.

Lyubushkin Might Not Be an Insignificant Pick-Up

When Lyubushkin last played for Toronto, Keefe had his specialty teams set. As a result, Lyubushkin was not used on the penalty kill. However, with the Arizona Coyotes, the Buffalo Sabres, and the Ducks, he was used on the penalty kill quite a bit. It is a role Lyubushkin is well suited for. This time around, he could see an expanded role when the Maple Leafs are a player short.

Although Lyubushkin might not have been general manager (GM) Brad Treliving’s first choice, his acquisition is not insignificant. He could play a key role as the Maple Leafs try for a deep playoff run.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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