How Will Justin Barron’s Contract Fit in Canadiens’ Salary Structure?

If Hughes doesn’t want to sell right now, he’s better off giving Barron a bridge deal with a modest raise, making him more attractive as an asset for potential trade partners.

Comparable Contracts for Barron

CapFriendly references Riley Stillman, Dyson Mayo, Alexandre Carrier, and Jonathan Kovacevic’s contracts as possible guides to establishing the value of Barron’s next deal.

Riley Stillman, a fourth-round pick by the Florida Panthers , signed an entry-level contract (ELC) with an annual average value (AAV) of $900,000. Afterwards, he was signed to a three-year contract with an $1,35 million AAV. By the end of his ELC, he had played 42 NHL games and had five points. Still, he got a $450,000 raise on his next contract.

Dyson Mayo, a fifth-round pick of the now-inactive Arizona Coyotes, signed a three-year ELC with a $798,333 AAV. He then signed a one-year contract with a $715,000 AAV, a $83,333 pay cut. However, he spent the entirety of his ELC in the AHL, meaning he got no points in the NHL.

Carrier, a fourth-round pick by the Nashville Predators, signed an ELC with a $691,666 AAV followed by a three-year extension with a modest raise to $733,333 AAV. At the end of his ELC, he had only played 23 NHL games with three points.

As for Kovacevic, he signed a two-year ELC with an AAV of $925,000. By the end of this first contract, he hadn’t player a single game in the NHL, mostly because COVID-19 hit and shortened a couple of seasons. He was signed to a one-year extension with a $750,000 AAV before the 2021-2022 season. He featured in four games with the Winnipeg Jets and was kept off the scoresheet. The Jets then offered him a three-year deal with a $766,667 AAV, but he didn’t play a single game before being claimed on waivers by the Canadiens. In Montreal, he played 77 games with 15 points in his first year, and 13 points in 63 games the following season.

So, what is Barron worth?

Canadiens Need to Establish a Salary Structure on the Blue Line

Barron’s ELC AAV was worth roughly $1.15 million, and he played in 94 NHL games over the three years of his contract. In those three seasons, he gathered 30 points. These negotiations won’t be easy, however, because even though the organization believes Barron has yet to reach his potential, he still produces offensively.

The other factor to consider is how much Hughes can afford to give Barron when Arber Xhekaj also needs a new contract. Next season, Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, and Jayden Struble will also need new deals. In other words, Xhekaj and Barron’s contracts will be the first pieces of a much larger puzzle.

Xekaj has played 95 games in the NHL during his ELC producing 23 points. He’s also been used on the second power-play unit and is a force to be reckoned with physically. Xhekaj doesn’t shy away from confrontations and protects his teammates and his presence alone is a warning to opponents to behave. He hasn’t finished developing either and will likely want more ice time in the future.

In other words, it seems obvious that Hughes will want to deal with Xhekaj first and start establishing a salary structure on defense, just as he has with the forwards — Nick Suzuki has the highest contract and no other forward can earn more than he does. Of course, Xhejaj won’t be the highest-paid defenseman, but it will still set a number that Barron’s deal should not exceed. In short, Xhekaj should be signed first as he should earn more than Barron. At the end of next season, Guhle should be signed to a contract worth more than Xhekaj and perhaps, if Lane Hutson’s development goes as planed, he will be the highest-paid player on the blue line. For now, Barron should be offered a two-to-three year bridge deal; considering Stillman got a $450,000 raise, I would offer Barron $600,000 raise and offer him a contract with a $1,758,300 AAV. We’ll find out later this summer if Hughes’ evaluation is close to mine. Whatever happens though, Hughes will definitely want to sign him.