Goalie matchmaker: Picking destinations for 2023's top free agents

The NHL goaltending landscape is ever-shifting, and the 2023 offseason could have some fireworks. Big-name goalies like Connor Hellebuyck and John Gibson are on the trading block, and many teams are looking to upgrade in goal.

I expect some of the openings listed below to be closed before the NHL free-agency period opens on July 1, but if not, here’s my best guess on a landing spot for each unrestricted free-agent goaltender.

Tristan Jarry

Age: 28
AFP Analytics projected contract: 4 x $4.8m
McKenna’s match: Ottawa Senators

Of all the UFA goaltenders available, I think Jarry has the highest ceiling. In the past few seasons with the Penguins, he’s had some incredible stretches of play worthy of Vezina Trophy consideration, but health is a big concern. Jarry has missed significant time due to injury and battled through pain for extended periods. Signing him would be a gamble, which I think will limit the length of term on his new contract more than the actual dollar figure. Ottawa will likely have to overpay to find a new No. 1 goaltender, and Jarry will be looking for a significant raise from the $3.5 million he made annually on his last deal. I expect Jarry to ink a new contract at more than $5 million per season, which falls in line with what Ottawa could spend, but with Jarry’s injury history, four years or fewer seem likely.

Frederik Andersen

Age: 33
AFP Analytics projected contract: 2 x $4m
McKenna’s match: L.A. Kings

Andersen’s stock went up during the 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoffs, when he performed admirably in nine games for the Hurricanes, but he was injured often during the 2022-23 campaign and limited to 34 games. When healthy, Andersen is a predictable goaltender capable of finishing the season top 10 in save percentage, but he’s also had fluctuations to his performance. On a stable defensive team like Carolina, he can shine. That’s why I think the Kings are a good fit for the big Danish netminder. At 33, Andersen likely won’t receive a long-term deal, but his new contract could be near $5 million, especially if he signs with Los Angeles, where the cost of living is astronomically high.

Adin Hill

Age: 27
AFP Analytics projected contract: 2 x $3.3m
McKenna’s match: Carolina Hurricanes

Throw that $3.3 million figure listed above out the window: Hill is going to make more than $4 million a year on his next contract. Book it. But I don’t think he sticks around Vegas to see the Stanley Cup banner raised at the start of the 2023-24 NHL season. The Golden Knights are desperate for cap space, and they already have Logan Thompson under contract for the next two seasons at under a million dollars. Hill has plenty of NHL experience at this point, along with a championship, but he still has yet to log No. 1 minutes over the course of an entire NHL season. He would make a great tandem with upstart netminder Pyotr Kochetkov in Carolina.

Joonas Korpisalo

Age: 29
AFP Analytics projected contract: 2 x $2.6m
McKenna’s match: Pittsburgh Penguins

Korpisalo is exactly the type of goaltender Kyle Dubas – the new Penguins president of hockey operations – seeks. Pittsburgh is in a cap crunch, and with UFA Tristan Jarry unsigned, the team needs a quality, affordable goaltender with underlying value. Korpisalo was one of the only rays of sunshine in Columbus during the 2022-23 season, enough so that the Kings acquired his services at the trade deadline. At 29, Korpisalo is young enough that a team can build around him, but several poor seasons depressed his stock, even though Korpisalo was playing through multiple ailments. Now that he’s healthy, I think he’ll surprise some people next year. If Pittsburgh can lock him up for under a $4 million cap hit, a two- or three-year deal could turn out to be a steal.

Semyon Varlamov

Age: 35
AFP Analytics projected contract: 2 x $2.75m
McKenna’s match: New York Rangers

Semyon Varlamov is better than his current label as a No. 2 goaltender, but he hasn’t been able to show it on Long Island recently where Ilya Sorokin has stolen the show. I think the Islanders would love to keep Varlamov, but the team is in deep cap trouble. Signing a No. 2 goaltender at nearly $3 million a season – while knowing Sorokin is one year away from a huge increase in salary – would be tough to swallow for Hall of Fame GM Lou Lamoriello. Varlamov would be good anywhere in the New York Metro area, New Jersey included, but I think the Rangers make a ton of sense. Varlamov would be an upgrade behind Igor Shesterkin – one that the Blueshirts could rely on to win games. Signing Varlamov would be worth the expense for the Rangers.

Cam Talbot

Age: 36
AFP Analytics projected contract: 1 x $2.3m
McKenna’s match: Winnipeg Jets

I’m very curious to see where Talbot ends up. He’s already played for six teams during his 10-year NHL career and never really been able to find a home. At soon-to-be 36 years old, that trend is likely to continue. Talbot spurned a contract extension from the Senators, instead electing to test free agency. Last season his play fluctuated wildly, and Talbot finished the season with a sub-.900 save percentage for the second time in his career. He was also hurt for a span. Why Winnipeg? Because I think the Jets are going to trade Hellebuyck, and Talbot has the best resume among the remaining goaltenders capable of playing No. 1 minutes. He hasn’t made less than $2.75 million since the 2016-17 season, and I don’t see that changing. But I’d be surprised to see him get more than a two-year deal.

Antti Raanta

Age: 34
AFP Analytics projected contract: 2 x $3.2m
McKenna’s match: New Jersey Devils

The Devils are shopping for a goaltender to pair with Vitek Vanecek, and if they can’t acquire one through the trade market, I fully expect New Jersey to sign a veteran UFA netminder. Believe it or not, I think Raanta is a good fit because his chronic injury troubles will not only depress his value on the market, but also give prospect Akira Schmid a chance to continue his evolution into an NHL backstop. I understand that might be some strange logic, but Raanta has a career .918 save percentage — and the best version of the Finnish netminder is an upgrade from Vanecek. The problem is Raanta has only played more than 33 games in an NHL season once. A two-year deal around $3 million would give New Jersey strength and flexibility in goal.

Laurent Brossoit

Age: 30
AFP Analytics projected contract: 1 x $1.5m
McKenna’s match: Vegas Golden Knights

I wouldn’t be shocked if Brossoit re-ups with the Golden Knights. He played fantastically down the stretch for Vegas and was just as good during the Stanley Cup playoffs before a lower-body injury shut him down. As I mentioned earlier, I think it’s unlikely Hill returns to Vegas, which opens the door for Brossoit to remain in Sin City. Logan Thompson is still the likely long-term solution in Vegas, and his cap hit is under a million dollars for each of the next two seasons. Retaining Brossoit at a dollar figure similar to his current AAV of $2.325 million would be smart business for the Golden Knights. With Bruce Cassidy coaching, Vegas knows it doesn’t need to spend big on goaltending in order to repeat as Stanley Cup champions.

Martin Jones

Age: 34
AFP Analytics projected contract: 1 x $1.7m
McKenna’s match: Tampa Bay Lightning

Maybe the hardest goaltender to predict is Jones. He played 42 games last year for the Seattle Kraken and won 27 times, but Jones’ save percentage has been below .900 in four of the past five seasons. Despite all the victories, I’m not sure a return to Seattle is in the works for Jones. I don’t think any NHL team would trust him as their No. 1 netminder, but Jones, with over 500 NHL games played, comes with plenty of experience. He seems ripe for the Tampa Bay Lightning, who recently employed Curtis McElhinney and Brian Elliott as backups to Andrei Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay needs an affordable, experienced netminder for that role, and Jones fits the mold of previous hires.

Joey Daccord

Age: 27
AFP Analytics projected contract: 1 x $775,000
McKenna’s match: San Jose Sharks

Which team is going to have the guts to sign Daccord to a multi-year, one-way NHL contract? I wonder because that’s what I believe it will take to retain his services. Daccord led the AHL Coachella Valley Firebirds to Game 7 of the Calder Cup Final this year, eventually losing in overtime. The puck-stopper from Boston appeared in 26 postseason games and posted a sterling .926 save percentage for the Seattle Kraken’s top minor league affiliate. Daccord has 19 games of NHL experience, albeit with lesser teams. He’s ready for the next step. Why San Jose? Because the Sharks need goaltending, and Daccord – as a Group 6 unrestricted free agent – is a diamond in the rough. I think Daccord could fetch a contract similar to the three-year, $1.1 million AAV pact Charlie Lindgren signed with the Washington Capitals in 2022. San Jose is in rebuild mode and would be smart to gamble on Daccord.