Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning

Free agency is less than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Lightning.

Key Restricted Free Agents

F Tanner Jeannot – Jeannot was traded just prior to this year’s deadline for one of the most eye-popping returns we’ve seen in recent memory. Tampa Bay traded five draft picks plus Callan Foote for Jeannot who was held pointless in three playoff games this year. It remains to be seen if Jeannot can recapture the magic he showed in the 2021-22 season where he put up 24 goals and 17 assists in 81 games for the Nashville Predators and looked to be well on his way to being the NHL’s next power forward. This past year was a different story for the 26-year-old as he appeared lost at times and struggled to get to his game. He put up just six goals and 12 assists in 76 games between Nashville and Tampa Bay and looked as though he was searching for answers as the season went on.

Tampa Bay will be looking for bigger things from the Saskatchewan native next season as their depth will be tested in the absence of some key contributors. Jeannot’s deployment changed after the trade from Nashville, and he was gifted the opportunity to have about 10% more offensive zone starts than he was getting with the Predators. He also saw less time on both the penalty kill and the powerplay which led to an average of three minutes less ice time per game. Jeannot may see more ice time this coming season as a lot of the forwards that were pushing him down the depth chart are likely to be exiting Tampa Bay this summer. This could lead Jeannot to sign a short-term deal to try and rebuild some of his value after coming off what was a bit of a lost season. I would expect a two-year bridge contract, but it is hard to nail down the annual value given how wildly different his past two seasons were. There are few comparables to Jeannot which should make for an interesting negotiation.

F Ross Colton – Colton has become a bit of a Swiss army knife for the Lightning and therein lies his value in the trade market, but also for any contract extension he is to sign. Colton is due for a significant raise on the $1.25M he made last season. Given that he is a good penalty killer, can play center and the wing as is a good bet to hit 15 goals and 35 points he could triple his salary next season on a long-term deal.

Tampa Bay will have to decide if Colton is the piece to move out to bring in younger and cheaper assets, or if he is a piece that want to extend on a contract not unlike the one they signed Nick Paul to last summer. At 26 years old, Colton has plenty of productive seasons in front of him and could even develop into a perennial 25-goal scorer. He already has a season in which he scored 22 goals and is coming off a year where he put up 16 goals in 81 games while playing just 12 minutes a night.

Other RFAs: F Rūdolfs Balcers, F Gabriel Fortier, F Cole Koepke, F Grant Mismash, F Simon Ryfors, D Dmitri Semykin

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F Alex Killorn – Killorn is the longest-tenured Tampa Bay Lightning player having been drafted back in the third round of the 2007 NHL entry draft. The 33-year-old Halifax native is coming off a season in which he posted a career-high 27 goals and 37 assists in 82 games. According to Elliotte Friedman, Tampa Bay has reportedly already made Killorn a long-term contract offer, but given his track record, he will be in demand and could be difficult for Tampa Bay to retain given their salary cap troubles.

Killorn has been consistently available for the Lightning, having missed just two games since the 2015-16 season and scoring 40 points or more in nearly every season. While his 64 points this past season appears to be an outlier, he did put up 59 points last season and has shown steady offensive improvement despite being on the older side of 30. Tampa Bay can still make Killorn’s situation interesting, but it does appear that the long-time Lightning veteran will start next season in a different uniform. Killorn should be able to fetch a four-year contract with an average annual value north of $5M per season.

D Ian Cole – Two-time Stanley Cup winner Ian Cole signed last season in Tampa Bay to provide the Lightning with a depth defenseman who could provide steady minutes on the backend as well as kill penalties. He did exactly that.

While his best years are likely behind him, Cole still played nearly 20 minutes a night and took almost 60% of his starts in the defensive zone. He doesn’t chip in much offensively, but he can still move the puck and get around the ice when he needs to. Cole had three goals and 14 assists in 78 games last season for Tampa Bay and could likely produce something similar again next season. Cole is likely looking for more security on his next deal as he has signed in back-to-back offseasons for just a single year. However, I can’t see him getting more than two years at around $2.5M-$3M per season. It’s hard to say though, given the contracts NHL general managers threw at defensive defensemen last offseason. Anything is possible for the 33-year-old.

C Pierre-Édouard Bellemare – Bellemare struggled in the minors before breaking into the NHL in his age-29 season. While it was a nice story at the time, Bellemare used his arrival to springboard himself into nine seasons in the NHL. Now at the age of 38, the native of France is coming off a down year in which his age appeared to catch up with him. Bellemare looked tired near the end of the year and struggled his way to four goals and nine assists in 73 games. Bellemare appeared to chase the game a lot more this season and had a hard time lining up hits, he also took more penalties as he uncharacteristically found himself out of position and was forced to take obstruction penalties.

Should he choose to keep playing, Bellemare could get a one-year contract, but given his age and lack of production last season, he is likely looking for something that is just above the NHL minimum.

Other UFAs: D Trevor Carrick, G Brian Elliott, F Pierre-Cédric Labrie, G Maxime Lagace, F Corey Perry, F Gemel Smith, F Daniel Walcott

Projected Cap Space

The Tampa Bay Lightning are one of a handful of teams that are right up against the cap with several key free agents to still try and lock up. Tampa has 17 players signed to NHL contracts with just $450K left to try and fill out their lineup. They will be able to put Brent Seabrook onto LTIR which will free up nearly $7M in additional space. While this gives the Lightning some breathing room, it still won’t be enough to dress a full lineup for next season.

The club will likely have to move out a roster player or two to sign their remaining RFA’s which will create an additional complication. The Lightning have four players with full no-movement clauses and an additional four players with full no-trade clauses or modified no-trade clauses. That effectively takes half of their signed players out of play if they are looking to make a move to free up cap space which will limit general manager Julien BriseBois’ options.

Tampa Bay has done a good job navigating cap challenges in the past but could be facing their toughest task yet as their two-time-cup-winning core has become increasingly expensive.