Frank Vatrano Should Be Atop Rangers’ Trade Deadline Wish List

Trade deadline pickups are hardly guaranteed to work the way the acquiring team intended – see Patrick Kane, 2023 – but after fitting the Rangers like a glove and helping them reach the 2022 Eastern Conference Final, Drury should have a reasonably high comfort level that Vatrano would be a successful add yet again.

A look at the pros of trading for Vatrano a second time makes it seem obvious that he’s worth the considerably higher return he’ll fetch now after the Rangers shrewdly picked him up from the Florida Panthers for a fourth-round pick two years ago.

Vatrano Can Unlock Mika Zibanejad’s 5-on-5 Play Again

It’s only been an OK season for No. 1 center Mika Zibanejad, who despite totaling 54 points in 59 games has struggled to make a significant impact at even strength. Zibanejad somehow hasn’t scored an even-strength goal since Dec. 23, and though he’s contributing all the other invaluable facets of his game – faceoffs, exceptional two-way play, penalty killing – his scoring is down, and he almost certainly won’t approach his career-best 39-goal, 91-point totals of last season. The 30-year-old has eight even-strength goals after recording 18 in 2022-23.

Making excuses for that accomplishes nothing, but it’s equally ridiculous to discount the fact that he and long-time running mate Chris Kreider have operated all season without a consistent, or consistently effective, right wing. Kaapo Kakko started the season with them, was demoted to the third line, got injured, came back to the third line and was moved back up with Zibanejad and Kreider shortly after veteran Blake Wheeler suffered a season-ending leg injury Feb. 15. Wheeler was hardly tearing it up as the third member of the trio, and Drury had already been planning on upgrading at the deadline before the 37-year-old offseason signing got hurt.

Jimmy Vesey also got a spin with the duo initially after Wheeler went down, but he’s much more effective in his bottom-six role than in a top-six scorer’s spot.

Vatrano slipped seamlessly into the Blueshirts’ locker room and culture back in 2022, and a big part of that was how perfectly his game complemented those of Zibanejad and Kreider when he drew the assignment to join them on what then was the Rangers’ unquestioned top line. With Kreider and the future Best Man at his wedding often guilty of slipping into overpassing mode, Vatrano’s straight-ahead style and volume-shooting mentality had an unquestionably positive effect on the personality of the line that season and into the postseason.

The numbers told the story: In 186:34 together at even strength over 21 regular-season games, Kreider-Zibanejad-Vatrano generated a 57.8 Corsi for percentage, with 11 goals for to five against and a 92-72 edge in scoring chances for. Before Vatrano showed up that season, Zibanejad and Kreider still had decent stats, but the Rangers weren’t nearly as good when Vatrano wasn’t the pair’s third wheel: The two best friends posted a 48.3 Corsi for mark and were outchanced 333-370 with other linemates in 2021-22.

A different, albeit smaller sample-sized metric, enhances the point: Zibanejad and Vatrano spent 17:57 on ice at 5 on 5 without Kreider that season, and the results, to put it mildly, were pretty good: a 65.5 Corsi for, 84.6 shots for percentage and 10-6 edge in scoring chances.

It appears obvious that Vatrano’s presence unlocks Zibanejad’s full effectiveness. If the Rangers, who sit near the top of the NHL, are going to make a run at the Stanley Cup, they’ll need Zibanejad to be one of their best players. He hasn’t even been their best center this season, that distinction going to Vincent Trocheck.

With Kreider enjoying another strong season – including at even strength, as he’s scored 17 of his 30 goals in that situation – the Rangers have to get Zibanejad’s game firing on all cylinders. There’s little doubt Vatrano can help do that; he’s a known quantity for the Blueshirts, whereas no guarantee exists that another high-profile acquisition will click on that line.

The season-long brilliance of the Artemi Panarin-Trocheck-Alexis Lafreniere line has provided cover for good, yet hardly elite, production from Kreider, Zibanejad and a rotating right winger. That won’t work in the playoffs, where scoring depth is paramount and goals become harder to come by.

Kreider and Zibanejad have quite simply never had a better linemate than Vatrano. Even the vaunted “KZB” line that included the departed Pavel Buchnevich didn’t produce as well as the one that included Vatrano: From the 2018-19 season through 2020-21 – Buchnevich’s last in New York – KZB posted a 49.8 Corsi for and had a 330-288 edge in scoring chances, but opponents held a 130-133 advantage in high-danger chances. With Vatrano on the unit in 2021-22, the Rangers had 37 high-danger chances for to 27 against.

A Vatrano Reunion Would Allow Kakko to Rejoin Effective Third Line

Speaking of balance, Kakko’s uneven, injury-interrupted season was starting to develop purpose with his third-line assignment, as he joined Will Cuylle and Jonny Brodzinski on a speed-and-size unit that possessed the puck below the hashmarks and attacked the net. The trio outscored opponents 7-4 at 5 on 5 in 94:34 together, providing Peter Laviolette with a heavier forward unit that provided a different look than the Rangers’ highly-skilled top two lines.

Moving Kakko up has reverberated through the lineup, even if the Rangers have stayed on a winning path. The third line, which now includes Vesey on the right side, has lost some of the ethos that made it effective. Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko, meanwhile, has essentially broken even in 15:39 since being re-formed: 48.4 Corsi for and 7-7 in scoring chances, including 4-3 in high danger chances. Weakening one line to create another that’s hardly been dominant does not amount to a net improvement.

Laviolette, of course, doesn’t have a ton of options at this point. Vesey is miscast in the top six, his all-around contributions playing much better lower in the lineup, and Kakko is the only other obvious candidate to handle the spot. The Rangers have had a gaping hole on the right side since the departure of Buchnevich in an ill-fated trade to the St. Louis Blues. For the third straight deadline, they’ll be looking to fill it. A Vatrano return would, in theory, strengthen two lines, not just one if Kakko drops back down with Cuylle and Brodzinski or perhaps another deadline acquisition in the middle.

Vatrano Solves the Right-Wing Issue for Another Season

Which brings us to the future, which obviously isn’t the Rangers’ primary focus of the March 8 deadline, but would also get a boost by bringing back Vatrano. A full 2024-25 season of the Rifle being the beneficiary of Zibanejad’s distribution and Kreider’s prowling around the net looking for deflections is tantalizing, and in theory ends the now-annual search, both before the season and at the deadline, for wingers who can play in the top six – for one more season, at least.

Vatrano’s $3.6 million salary-cap hit won’t work on the Rangers’ payroll; retention will be needed by the Ducks and perhaps a third team, a strategy the Blueshirts employed in dealing for Kane last year. That drives up the price, which was going to be high anyway.

A full season of Vatrano also buys added developmental time for Kakko, if the Rangers re-sign him and choose not to move on this summer, or Brennan Othmann or even 2023 first-round pick Gabe Perreault to cook in the minors before trying to win a spot at right wing in 2025-26. The Blueshirts need to create some stability at the position, even if it’s only for one more season, and get off the merry-go-round of sacrificing assets every year to fill the hole on a temporary basis.

Rangers Should Be Willing to Trade 1st Rounder, Involve Henrique in Deal

The Blueshirts aren’t the only team that will be looking for impact wings at the deadline, and there’s no player available this year that’s seen as a huge needle-mover for championship contender. Yet Vatrano might be just that for a team for which he delivered a significant impact the last time around. The childhood friend of Rangers captain Jacob Trouba scored eight goals with five assists in 22 regular-season games after being acquired in 2022 and added five goals and eight assists in 20 postseason contests.

The Rangers’ first-round pick, sure to be in the low 20s if not the 30s in the June draft, should absolutely be in play. That’s especially true if Drury, who’s also seeking a third-line center upgrade, can expand a potential deal with Anaheim to include veteran Adam Henrique. Any prospects not named Perreault or Othmann would also have to be available, as the Blueshirts are somewhat thin on high picks, especially next year when they lack their second-, third- and fourth-round selections.

“Playing in New York was the biggest thing that’s happened in my career to this point,” Vatrano said last month at media day for the All-Star Game, to which he was selected for the first time in his nine-year career. “When I was there, I loved it, and playing with those guys (Zibanejad and Kreider) was unbelievable.”

Even if Henrique can’t be had or the Rangers prefer another potential center target such as Alex Wennberg of the Seattle Kraken, there’s every reason to pursue an encore with Vatrano, who would provide value in a multitude of ways. His presence felt natural on the roster in 2022, with a personality that blended with the core guys and a game that fit like a missing puzzle piece for Zibanejad and Kreider. Contrasted with Kane’s acquisition last year, which seemed forced and awkward at times, the Blueshirts shouldn’t overlook that element of a potential Vatrano acquisition – especially when the team would benefit for more than half a season’s worth of games this time.