Five underrated NHL goaltenders to monitor this season

The goaltending landscape of the NHL is one filled with unpredictability. As a result, goaltenders tend to become underrated assets, treated as if they grow on trees. After all, look at what Adin Hill accomplished in the Stanley Cup playoffs last spring after not even being the starter for the Vegas Golden Knights when the playoffs commenced.

When identifying underrated goaltenders in the NHL, goals saved above expected can be a key indicator. It allows for accurate calculation of the number of goals a netminder has saved in relation to the expected goals associated with the team he is taking on during that game. 

This can be a valuable tool when trying to compare goaltenders among their counterparts. It presents a view that places a focus on different goalie statistics aside from the traditional save percentage and goals against average. 

For those unfamiliar, the definition of goals saved above expected as per Money Puck is: a netminder’s expected goals against minus the actual number of goals he has let in. Essentially, if a goalie has a positive goals saved above expected, this means he is stopping more goals than an average goalie would. 

Listed below are the goaltenders I’ve identified as underrated commodities heading into the 2023-24 NHL regular season. One notable theme among all five netminders is they were within the top 15 in goals saved above expected statistics throughout the league in 2022-23.

Filip Gustavsson, Wild

Gustavsson’s trajectory has completely changed since he was traded from the Ottawa Senators to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Cam Talbot. With the Senators the 6-foot-2, 184-pound goaltender largely played a third-string role as he suited up for only 18 games in 2021-22. Before last season the netminder had a combined 27 games of NHL experience, making him an unknown commodity to many. He’s gotten a substantial increase in playing time after being acquired by the Wild, essentially splitting the crease with veteran Marc-Andre Fleury. Gustavsson played a total of 39 games last season and posted a 22-9-7 record, a .931 save percentage and a 2.10 goals against average.

The 55^th overall pick in the 2016 draft established himself as an NHL mainstay with his performance last season and appears to be the designated starting goaltender for Minnesota heading into this regular season. Gustavsson managed to secure the starting role during the Wild’s six-game playoff series against the Dallas Stars last spring. 

One reason Gustavsson is considered an underrated goaltender heading into 2022-23 is the fact that he’s still in Fleury’s shadow to a degree. The future Hall of Famer played 41 games last season and could still get considerable playing time this year. Nonetheless, it appears that Gustavsson should get more starts than he did last season at least for now.

Scouts have stated the 25-year-old is prone to consistency issues periodically, but as the netminder becomes more comfortable taking on a starting role that should improve. Gustavsson finished seventh in the entire NHL with a 24.2 goals saved above expected rating (according to MoneyPuck.com). With Fleury turning 39 in November, the likelihood of Gustavsson receiving an increased workload this season is high. That should ensure the netminder garners more recognition throughout the upcoming season as compared to 2022-23.

Carter Hart, Flyers

Once thought of as Canada’s next elite goaltender by various pundits, Carter Hart is a talented young player who’s had an up and down start to his professional career. Unlike the majority of goalies, Hart debuted for the Flyers as a 21-year-old and played 31 games in his rookie season. The 48^th overall pick in the 2016 draft had an impressive debut year considering the bulk of goaltenders are still in the developmental stages of their careers at similar ages. He followed it up with an even stronger sophomore season where he finished seventh in the league in goals saved above expected with a rating of 6.9 in 2019-20 (according to MoneyPuck.com).

Over the next two seasons, Hart’s play fell off a cliff. The netminder went from looking like a bona fide NHL starter with elite potential to a backup goalie in the NHL at best.

During 2020-21, Hart posted a -18.3 goals saved above expected rating (according to MoneyPuck.com) which placed him as the second worst goalie in the league for this metric. He continued his disappointing play the next season and finished with – 6.6 goals saved above expected (according to MoneyPuck.com). Two underwhelming seasons in a row led to a cloud of uncertainty surrounding Hart and his NHL future. After making some adjustments to his game last offseason with Flyers goaltending coach Kim Dillabaugh, the Sherwood Park, Alberta native returned to his prior form in 2022-23. Hart recorded a 10.3 goals saved above expected rating (according to MoneyPuck.com) in 55 games played. That placed him 15^th overall among his peers for the statistic.

Despite his ability to bounce back, the previous two seasons of unsatisfactory play have done some damage to Hart’s reputation in terms of how he is viewed leaguewide. With the Flyers being a consistent bottom-10 team, it hasn’t allowed Hart to regain the pedigree he once had, although he rebounded last season. The young netminder was an integral part of Philadelphia’s wins and did not receive much help from one of the worst defenses in the league. The Flyers defensive core let up 31.5 shots per game (12^th worst in the league) in 2022-23.

The heavy workload partially explains Hart’s ho-hum save percentage of .907 and goals against average of 2.94 last season. It’s also a significant factor to why Hart is an underrated goalie heading into 2023-24. Save percentage and goals against average statistics that are far from top 10 in the league naturally do not bring a goaltender much focus around the NHL.

With the Flyers hoping to take another step forward this season under the new regime of Danny Briere, Hart’s stock may continue to rise as his development progresses. It should be noted he’s still only 25 years old, which is roughly when most goaltenders enter the league.

Joonas Korpisalo, Senators

Korpisalo is the most experienced goaltender on this underrated list as an eight-season NHL veteran. He played for the Columbus Blue Jackets for much of his career before being traded to the Los Angeles Kings on March 1 last season.

The netminder has never played more than 39 games in one campaign. Aside from a few years in Columbus and his brief stint with the Kings, Korpisalo has found himself in the backup goaltender role far more often than the starter’s position throughout his career. Additionally, Korpisalo has played for a handful of Columbus teams that were some of the worst in the NHL defensively over the last three years. 

The Blue Jackets have consistently been a bottom-seven team in the NHL in goals against for the past three seasons, while allowing 35.4 and 35.2 shots against per game the last two seasons, ranking them bottom two in the league. Any netminder playing behind such an inefficient defense is not only going to have his numbers suffer, but his stock around the league as well.

When assessing the fact Korpisalo was the Blue Jackets backup for long periods of time on bad teams it’s not unusual that there’s been minimal recognition for some of the stellar stretches he’s had. For instance, Korpisalo posted a .910 save percentage or above in three seasons over the span of his career. Specifically, during the 2022-23 season the goalie had a .913 save percentage while playing for the Blue Jackets and a .921 save percentage with the Kings. In regard to goals saved above expected, Korpisalo was ranked 12th overall with a rating of 12.7 (according to MoneyPuck.com). This particularly exhibits how underrated Korpisalo has been for multiple seasons at this point.

Now that the veteran netminder has signed a five-year, $20 million contract with the Ottawa Senators, Korpisalo is set to become a full-time NHL starter in a Canadian market for the first time in his career. Look for the 29-year-old Finnish netminder to gain further notoriety this upcoming season while playing for the up-and-coming Senators.

Sam Montembeault, Canadiens

Before the 2021 season, Montembeault was a goaltender who had relatively limited experience in the NHL. He was selected 77^th overall by the Florida Panthers in the 2015 draft and played just 25 games total for the organization between 2018-2020. The netminder was eventually claimed on waivers by the Montreal Canadiens ahead of the 2021-22 season and has started his fair share of games since then.

Over the last two years, Montembeault played a total of 78 games for the Canadiens, proving he can handle a starter’s workload. Last season he put up very respectable goals saved above expected numbers as compared to the traditional statistics of save percentage and goals against average. In 2022-23, Montembeault was 13^th in the NHL in goals saved above expected with a rating of 11.8 (according to MoneyPuck.com). Due to his save percentage being .901 and a goals against average of 3.42, it’s not surprising the netminder hasn’t been recognized as one of the more impactful goaltenders in the NHL. However, it cannot be discounted that those numbers are largely a product of the Canadiens team playing in front of him.

Montreal finished 28^th in the league last season, was fifth worst in shots against per game, allowing 33.6, and fourth last in goals against per game, allowing 3.72. It’s evident that the Canadiens being one of the worst defensive teams contributed to Montembeault’s poor save percentage and goals against average. What the goals saved above expected metric reveals is that based on the quality of chances the goaltender has faced and the shot volume, he was one of the most effective goalies in the NHL last season.

Montembeault’s size and athleticism have always provided him the tools to be a starting goaltender; he’s simply never gotten an extended opportunity before his stint with the Canadiens. The former Panther will be one to watch this upcoming season as he potentially receives more starts than ever.

Karel Vejmelka, Coyotes

Vejmelka is an interesting case due to the fact he gained pro experience playing in the Czech Extraliga for seven seasons before finally making his NHL debut with the Arizona Coyotes in 2021-22. During that time, he established the foundations of his game while also understanding what it takes to be a goaltender at the pro level. 

Since his debut for the Coyotes, he’s become a stabilizing force in net for the club. The 6-foot-4, 224-pound Vejmelka is a rare right-handed-catching goaltender, a facet of his game that makes him more difficult for opposing shooters to read. Coupling that with his size and lateral speed, he’s become one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL over the past two seasons. 

The 27-year-old amassed quite a workload with the Coyotes, playing a combined 102 games for the organization so far. In 2022-23 specifically, Vejmelka suited up in 50 games and registered a goals saved above expected rating of 11.1 (according to MoneyPuck.com), placing him 14th leaguewide. Considering his expected goals against for the entire season was 179.09 and he only allowed 168 goals against in total, it’s evident Vejmelka’s strong play resulted in saving more goals than your typical netminder would in similar circumstances. 

Accounting for the team playing in front of him last season points to Vejmelka being one of the most effective NHL goaltenders in 2022-23. As the Coyotes continue to add talented prospects to their roster, look for Vejmelka to gain further recognition, especially if the team becomes more competitive this season ahead.