Devils vs. Rangers: Stanley Cup playoff series preview and prediction

New Jersey Devils: 2nd in Metropolitan Division, 112 points
New York Rangers: 3rd in Metropolitan Division, 107 points

Schedule (ET)

Tuesday, April 18: New York at New Jersey, 7 p.m. EST
Thursday, April 20: New York at New Jersey, 7:30 p.m. EST
Saturday, April 22: New Jersey at New York, 8 p.m. EST
Monday, April 24: New Jersey at New York, 7 p.m. EST
Thursday, April 27: New York at New Jersey, TBD*
Saturday, April 29: New Jersey at New York, TBD*
Monday, May 1: New York at New Jersey, TBD*

*only if necessary

The Skinny

While the Hudson River rivalry is a historic one, it’s been 11 years since Adam Henrique scored his iconic series-winning goal in Game 6 to send the Devils to the Stanley Cup Final. Since then, both teams have gone down very different paths.

The Rangers continued to contend for the Cup, with two more Conference Final appearances and a trip to the Stanley Cup Final before that team’s contention window closed, forcing them into a rebuild in 2018. They quickly restocked the cupboards, bringing in the likes of Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox through the trade market, Igor Shesterkin, K’Andre Miller, Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere in the draft.

The Devils went in the polar opposite direction. They fell out of contention right after that and proceeded to miss the playoffs for nine of the next 10 seasons, with a brief blip on the radar in 2017-18 when they were carried into the playoffs by a Taylor Hall MVP season. First, they struggled to fully commit to a rebuild, and then when they finally did, they just couldn’t get the right pieces for a long time, especially in net. But, a few years of smart, savvy moves and capitalizing on other teams’ cap troubles allowed the Devils to finally piece it all together and not only come out of the gate looking like a playoff team but like a Cup contender.

Each team has quite an impressive makeup, with a very deep group up front and on the back end, and while the Rangers certainly have the advantage in net with Shesterkin, the Devils boast the most talented player in Jack Hughes. Will the Rangers carry the momentum of last season’s playoff run into this series? Or will this Devils team not be satisfied with just a return to the playoffs and look to make some serious noise?

Head to Head

New Jersey: 3-0-1
New York: 1-2-1

It’s safe to say that, for the most part, the Devils had the Rangers’ number in the regular season, as the Rangers couldn’t beat them in the allotted 60 minutes of regulation. The Rangers blew an early 2-0 lead to give the Devils a 5-2 win in the first game in late November, but New York got revenge a couple of weeks later by coming back from an early 2-0 deficit themselves to win 4-3 in overtime. Blowing 2-0 leads is a pretty common theme here, as, in early January, the Rangers did it again to give the Devils a 4-3 overtime win in the third game. And they concluded the season series by getting one game in with both the Devils’ and Rangers’ new trade deadline additions at the end of March, with the Devils’ add paying off in that game as Timo Meier got the game-winner in a 2-1 win, while both Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko were held off the score sheet.

Both Shesterkin and Vitek Vanecek were in net for all four games, so the Rangers can’t chalk any of it up to the Devils taking advantage of Jaroslav Halak either. Shesterkin allowed more goals than expected in two of the games, while Vanecek did in three of the four, although Vanecek’s were by much slimmer margins. The Devils were simply the better team at driving scoring chances throughout the series, particularly in games two and four, while the Rangers only won that battle once in the third game, and only at 51.41%. Ultimately, the Devils had the 10.17-6.94 expected goals advantage at 5v5, good for a strong 59.44%, and it could prove to be a solid indicator for the series.

Top Five Scorers

New Jersey
Jack Hughes, 99 points
Nico Hischier, 80 points
Dougie Hamilton, 74 points
Jesper Bratt, 73 points
Timo Meier, 66 points (14 points with New Jersey)

New York
Artemi Panarin, 92 points
Mika Zibanejad, 91 points
Adam Fox, 72 points
Vincent Trocheck, 64 points
Patrick Kane, 57 points (12 points with New York)

X-Factor

While other teams made more additions at the trade deadline than the Devils and Rangers, it’s safe to say that no one added more in terms of quality than these two teams. The Devils went after the guy who in my opinion was the best player available at the deadline in Meier, while the Rangers doubled down on big names with Cup-winning experience in Tarasenko and Kane. All three were good, but not great for their new respective teams, and with these two teams being so close, especially offensively, it may come down to which of their deadline additions prove to be the biggest difference maker for their team that decides the winner.

Offense

Offensively, this Rangers team harkens to the pre-salary cap era teams that loaded up on big-name veterans that were beginning to exit their prime, especially after the Tarasenko and Kane trades. Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck are the only players under 30 in their top six, although Zibanejad will be turning 30 on the day of Game 1 in this series, and Trocheck also sits at 29 at the moment. It’s still a high-octane group, but it’s certainly past its play-driving prime, and it shows in the team’s output, as they sit 10th in 5v5 goals per 60 and 21st in 5v5 expected goals per 60 minutes. They make up for it a bit with the seventh-best power play percentage, but it still doesn’t quite overcome the deficit. That said, don’t take them lightly either, as they can still put up a ton of points on a good night. Give any of Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider, Tarasenko, Kane, or Trocheck the time and space, and they’ll burn you, especially the former two who put up more than 90 points each.

The edge they have offensively is a slightly deeper lineup thanks to the Kid Line of Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, and Alexis Lafreniere. They had their breakout during last year’s playoff run and have been a thorn in the side of many teams as they eat up easier moments. It also allows players like Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey to not play out of their element and be solid players in a fourth-line role. Add some solid offensive threats on the blueline in Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, and K’Andre Miller, and there are a lot of ways this team can beat you offensively.

While the Rangers have the bigger offense by name, the Devils have some names that don’t jump out at you as much, but they’re all either in their primes or entering their primes and might actually be better than the Rangers group, especially in the top six. Jack Hughes is the Devils' biggest advantage, as he is the best skater in this series and brings a dynamic of talent and two-way play that no one on the Rangers can really match. Add Meier and Jesper Bratt on his wings, and that is a scary line for any team to handle. Nico Hischier is also starting to live up to his draft hype and become a quality two-way center, and having another excellent play-driver in Tomas Tatar by his side has allowed that line to thrive, and Dawson Mercer’s breakout year has given them another scoring threat to work with there. Both lines can also shut you down, so they could easily go toe-to-toe with the Rangers’ top two lines and keep them in their own zone. It’s why they were fifth in 5v5 goals per 60 and second in 5v5 expected goals per 60 this season, and while they haven’t quite figured out their power play, which ranks 13th, it’s a dangerous group, especially at 5v5.

Beyond that, the offense does take a slight step back, but they all still either drive offense or defend well, so it makes for a good mix of players to take on the Devils’ weaker matchups. Erik Haula leads that group scoring-wise with 41 points, but a lot of that also came from his time alongside Hughes before they added Meier, so I wouldn’t expect a 0.5 per-game production throughout the playoffs. Ondrej Palat is likely the true best player outside the top six, and the only reason I say likely is because it’ll depend on if he ends up in the top six and they swap him with Tatar or Mercer. They also really only have one true offensive threat on the blueline in Dougie Hamilton, who set a career-high in points with 74, but that doesn’t mean the rest of the blueline can’t beat you in other ways…

Defense

The Devils' blueline brought in a lot of misfits that didn’t work out with other teams to make one of the best defense corps in the league this year. Hamilton’s defensive play isn’t what it used to be, but he has Jonas Siegenthaler to balance him out, a no-name addition to their blueline in 2021 that’s paid off in spades. Then John Marino and Ryan Graves make up their second pair, with both being casualties of the salary cap or the expansion draft and have proven to be excellent in a shutdown role. After that, it’s analytics darling Damon Severson dominating third pair minutes with one of Brendan Smith or Kevin Bahl, although if Lindy Ruff wanted to be bold, he could also run with Luke Hughes, their 2021 fourth-overall pick (and brother of Jack). Hey, the Colorado Avalanche also added a fourth-overall pick defenseman to their blueline for the playoffs in 2019 in Cale Makar, and that’s turned out well for them.

Up front, they’ve only had one line combination play more than 50 minutes of even-strength ice time together that didn’t have a positive expected goal share, so that group can also handle its own as well. Hischier in particular has stepped up as an excellent two-way presence in that top six, but the Hughes line is no slouch in that regard either. And their penalty kill group is certainly one that can handle the Rangers' offense, as theirs was the fourth-best this year.

The Rangers’ top pair of Fox and Ryan Lindgren holds a similar dynamic to the Hamilton-Siegenthaler, although Fox is a much better all-around player than Hamilton, and they are the Rangers' key pair. Why wouldn’t they be, with Fox being to the blueliners of this series what Jack Hughes is to the forward group? There’s a reason he’s already won a Norris trophy just four seasons into his NHL career and might win another this season, as he does an excellent job of driving play from the back end and propping up a team that struggles a bit in that regard.

It’s a good thing they do because, beyond that, there are plenty of holes defensively. Not that the Rangers struggle to defend like last year’s rendition of the team, but the rest of the lineup is littered with players and combos in the 48-52% range, so not a ton of impact in the lineup in terms of pure domination outside of Fox. That’s not entirely bad, you can survive with a team like that, but the Devils are possession monsters, so they won’t give the Rangers too much room to breathe. Add in that the Rangers’ penalty kill is also middle of the pack in 13th, and it looks like they will need an elite goaltender if they want to keep the goals against to a manageable level in this series. Oh wait, they have one.

Goaltending

The biggest difference maker in this series is, without a doubt, Shesterkin. The Rangers netminder didn’t quite dominate the crease like last season, but when he’s on his game, he’s nearly impossible to beat. He ranked eighth in the league in 5v5 save percentage, sixth in 5v5 delta save percentage, and third in 5v5 goals saved above expected this season, so he’s still one of the league’s best, and he can mask a lot of the Rangers’ mistakes. He didn’t do that quite as much against the Devils this season, so maybe they have his number, but he can easily turn it on and be lights out for the Rangers when they need it.

Vanecek has proven to be an excellent addition to this Devils team by giving them what they’ve needed the most these past couple of seasons: goaltending that isn’t outright terrible. He’s managed to play well enough that he keeps the puck out enough for the Devils to outscore their opponents with their relentless possession, and that’s allowed them to go from lottery contention to Cup contention in a single season. He ranks 17th in 5v5 save percentage, 20th in delta save percentage, and 18th in 5v5 goals saved above expected, so he’s not a world beater like Shesterkin, but he gets the job done.

However, Vanecek may need to be as good as Shesterkin in games where the Devils can’t find the back of the net, and whether he can do that may be the biggest factor for the Devils in this series. He does have three games of playoff experience, but it’s not much to write home about, and if he falters, Mackenzie Blackwood doesn’t exactly inspire hope in relief. It’ll be interesting to see how this goalie duel turns out and if it does prove to be a big impact on either team.

Injuries

Right now, both teams are remarkably healthy, with the lone player officially on injured reserve or long-term injured reserve between the two teams being goaltender Jonathan Bernier, who hasn’t played since 2021. The Rangers are currently icing their ideal lineup, while the only player of note that the Devils are missing is Michael McLeod. That said, both teams had some players in and out of the lineup after clinching a playoff spot for load management, so who knows who’s truly injured? Regardless, every player should be good to go for Game 1, with McLeod as the lone question mark.

Intangibles

The Rangers have a relatively similar lineup to the one from last season’s run to the Conference Finals, particularly the nucleus of the group, so they bring plenty of experience to the table, and they added two Cup winners that were big difference makers in Kane and Tarasenko, so from an intangibles perspective, they’re looking even better than last year. Kreider is really the lone player from the previous era of the team when they were making playoff runs, so a lot of the team is still new to this level of competition, making last year’s run all the more valuable for their younger players against a team with so many players getting their first tastes of playoff action in the Devils.

That’s not to say that the Devils don’t have some experience in their lineup. Palat definitely has the most from his time with the Lightning. Tatar, Graves, and Hamilton also have some experience although don’t have Cup wins, and even Meier went on a deep run with the Sharks back in 2019. But the main core of their group has had limited experience, with Hischier, Bratt, and a few other players being the only ones getting any playoff action in that five-game series in 2018 against the Lightning. That said, you don’t know how to win until suddenly you do, and the Rangers proved last year that a relatively inexperienced core can make a big splash on their first go-around.

Series prediction

This may have been the final series of the eight first-round matchups that I managed to come up with a prediction for. It’s just that close. The Devils have the advantage in terms of overall play, the Rangers have the kryptonite for that inefficient shooters and elite goaltending, and from a pure talent perspective, they’re pretty evenly matched up front and on the back end. That said, I’m a stats nerd to my core, and in a coin flip as close as this, I’m going to favor the team whose edge is driving play over the team whose edge is goaltending, because the latter can be quite volatile, even with one of the best in Shesterkin (just ask 2019 Andrei Vasilevskiy what a few bad games can do to a series). I’ve followed both teams all year while doing the power rankings, and while the Rangers were consistently a top-10 team, the Devils were always in the elite group of four with the Bruins, Hurricanes, and Leafs fighting for the top spot in the list, and I’m going to trust my gut, which tells me that advantage will prove to be the difference.

Devils in seven games.