'Clarity' on Erik Karlsson trade could come this weekend

The Pittsburgh Penguins could finally be inching closer to landing defenseman Erik Karlsson with a second buyout window opening for the team this weekend. The pursuit of Karlsson by the Penguins, Carolina Hurricanes and others has been a dominant storyline for the past two months, and now there’s a sense that some clarity might be on the horizon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman said on NHL Network yesterday.

Now armed with some additional salary cap flexibility thanks to Jake Guentzel’s ankle injury that should place him on LTIR for the first month of the season, the Penguins have more dice to roll in regard to a Karlsson deal. The team could also free up more space through that second buyout window, using one on someone like Mikael Granlund, who’s locked in at a $5M AAV for two more seasons. It would be a change in pace for GM Kyle Dubas, though, who’s expressed publically he’s hesitant to go the buyout route. As GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs, he offloaded a first-round pick for the Carolina Hurricanes to take and buy out the final season of Patrick Marleau’s contract in 2019.

That being said, there aren’t a whole lot of other options for the Penguins to free up enough space to make a deal unless the Sharks are willing to take on a bad contract or two in return. The latter is unlikely, given they’re undoubtedly going to retain more salary than they’re comfortable with to facilitate a Karlsson trade. With Friedman hearing there’s increased activity this week on the Penguins/Karlsson train, it’s not hard to connect the dots on Dubas’ potential cap-clearing plans.

While the list of teams connected to Karlsson is largely public knowledge at this point, what a potential deal could look like isn’t. It’s been reported multiple times that San Jose will likely have to retain at least $3.5M of Karlsson’s $11M cap hit for four more seasons to move him out, but other than that, it’s anyone’s guess as to what amount of roster players, picks, and prospects it’ll take to win a bidding war for last year’s Norris Trophy winner.

Speculatively, one player who could head to San Jose is 23-year-old defenseman Ty Smith. The 2018 17th-overall pick burst onto the scene with 23 points in just 48 games during his rookie season with the New Jersey Devils in 2020-21, but he struggled heavily on the defensive end of things the following season and was traded to Pittsburgh in 2022. He spent most of last season in the minors, only skating nine games with the Penguins, but he’ll need waivers to return there next season if he can’t find a spot in the NHL lineup. On a team with paper-thin defensive depth such as San Jose, he’d likely immediately factor in as a top-four threat.

It’s worth noting that Pittsburgh also has all six of their first- and second-round picks in the next three drafts.