Blues Captain Brayden Schenn’s Regression This Season

Of his 31 points, nine came within a four-game span in November that included a hat-trick against the Colorado Avalanche, and then another eight came during a five-game stretch in early January. That is 17 of Schenn’s 31 points in nine of his 59 games this season. The lack of steady production has been a common theme for the Blues this season, but it is reasonable to expect more from a team captain.

The 32-year-old should be making up for his lack of offensive contributions in other areas, but he isn’t. According to JFresh Hockey, Schenn is near the bottom in defensive efficiency rating among forwards, at an 11, while only bringing in a rating of 39 in offensive efficiency. Because of the drop in play, Schenn is averaging the lowest ice time of his St. Louis tenure, and he lost his full-time spot on the team’s penalty kill this season, overtaken by Alexey Toropchenko, Oskar Sundqvist, and Jake Neighbours.

What made Schenn such a valuable piece of so many Blues playoff teams was his versatility and ability to play up and down the lineup and contribute consistently in multiple facets of the game, like special teams. With his dip in performance and lack of production, many wonder if general manager Doug Armstrong can afford to keep the captain around long-term at his current cap hit of $6.5 million a year for the next four seasons after this one.

Schenn’s Contract

After St. Louis won the Stanley Cup in 2019, Schenn decided to stay in St. Louis and signed an eight-year contract worth $6.5 million per year until 2027-2028. His play is declining only four years into that contract. Management is trying to complete a competitive retool, and a 32-year-old barely producing at a half-point per game clip making north of $6 million is not a recipe for success.

Armstrong has given several long-term contracts to veteran players like Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, and Brandon Saad, all including modified or full no-movement clauses. In doing so, he has made it difficult to change an underperforming roster. Schenn’s contract is no different; he has a full no-trade clause until 2025 when it becomes a modified no-trade clause for the rest of the deal.

It is hard to see a world where Schenn is no longer with the Blues. His contract, combined with his age and current production makes him difficult to move, and frankly, the Blues probably don’t want to move him anyway. The team just named him captain, and he is a valuable mentor, despite his lack of production. However, continuing to play him at second-line center should not be an option past this season.

Schenn’s Role Moving Forward

Even though the team’s forward depth has been lackluster this season, some significant reinforcements are coming up the ranks very soon. Wingers Jimmy Snuggerud and Zachary Bolduc are almost certainly going to be full-time NHLers next season, which will help a top six that has seen far too much of Kasperi Kapanen and Kevin Hayes this season, while Dalibor Dvorsky is likely on his way to the NHL as well. Moving Dvorsky up to the Blues, potentially as early as next season, would allow Schenn to take on a more reduced role where the team will not be relying on him for heavy minutes and consistent point production, which is more in line with this stage of his career.

The struggle is that the Blues’ second line has not delivered offensively to expectations. Here’s how the lines could shake up next season if these prospects make the roster, and Schenn would then be an integral part of a leadership group to mentor these young players.

Things could change depending on the moves Armstrong makes in the off-season. Oskar Sundqvist was not included in this projected lineup but is likely to stay in St. Louis. These lines also do not consider a potential Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou trade, or a possible Hayes move. Pushing Schenn down the lineup makes the Blues’ forward core more balanced and well-rounded.

Trading Schenn would help the team in the short and long term, but keeping him around to mentor Snuggerud, Dvorsky, Bolduc, and Otto Stenberg would be in the team’s best interest. Schenn’s days of being a 50-60-point producer may be over, but if the Blues coaching staff can find a reduced role that does not require him to be an offensive motor, he could be vital to the retooling effort.