2023-24 NHL team preview: Montreal Canadiens

LAST SEASON

The Montreal Canadiens had modest expectations going into the 2022-23 season. They had come off a disaster of a year in 2021-22 in which they finished with 55 points in the standings, good for dead last in the NHL. Going into the 2022-23 season they hoped their fortunes would move in the right direction. They did improve in the standings but not enough to compete for a playoff spot at any point in the season.

The Canadiens finished 28th overall with a 31-45-6 record and 68 points. In goals per game and goals against per game they were predictably near the bottom of the league at 26th and 29th, respectively. Additionally, their special team units did not give the team a jolt of energy. There were, however, some bright spots for Canadiens fans. Nick Suzuki progressed in his development and led the team in points with 66. They also saw positive signs from sniper Cole Caufield, albeit in a smaller sample size due to injury.

And of course the main objective of the season was realised on the draft floor when they selected Austrian defenseman David Reinbacher fifth overall. He will improve their prospect pool and the hope is he can join the NHL lineup at some point in the next couple of years.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Alex Newhook, C
Lias Andersson, C
Casey DeSmith, G
Nathan Legare, RW
Gustav Lindstrom, D

Departures

Jeff Petry, D (Det)
Joel Edmundson, D (Wsh)
Jonathan Drouin, LW (Col)
Denis Gurianov, RW (Nsh)
Chris Tierney, C (NJ)
Rem Pitlick, C (Pit)
Mike Hoffman, RW (SJ)
Paul Byron, C (UFA)

OFFENSE

The Canadiens’ forward group isn’t expected to see a huge improvement over last season, but they do have potential to make some small strides in the right direction. They hope to see full seasons from Caufield, Kirby Dach, and Sean Monahan this year which will naturally help their scoring. Those three key players missed a combined 117 games last year, and that was a big reason the team finished near the bottom of the league in scoring. Taking into account their goals-per-game averages from the games they did play, the Canadiens missed out on an estimated 39 goals from those three players. All that simply proves is that health plays a major role in every aspect of a team’s performance.

Going into 2023-24, the Canadiens will be without the services of Mike Hoffman, Denis Gurianov, Rem Pitlick, and Jonathan Drouin. However, the additions of Alex Newhook and Lias Andersson could make up for some of that production, particularly if Newhook can experience a post-hype breakout similar to Dach’s last year.

If the Canadiens’ top players can somehow stay more or less healthy this year, they can put up a surprisingly deep forward group. It will be led by Suzuki and Caufield on the first line but the supporting cast of Newhook, Dach, Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak, Monahan, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Brendan Gallagher have the skill and potential to really make a difference on the ice. The key to this year’s offense is for the younger players to reach closer to their potential and the veterans to find some previously unforeseen gas left in the tank.

DEFENSE

For the first time in a long while, the Canadiens’ defense corps will be made up of mostly younger players. Players like Kaiden Guhle, Justin Barron, and Jordan Harris have proven that they can handle the rigors of an NHL schedule. Guhle was near the top of the Canadiens’ prospect pool since he was taken 16th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft by Montreal. The left-handed defenseman was thrust into an unpredictable situation as a rookie on a team that was undergoing a lot of changes. None of that seems to have phased him, as he appeared in 44 games in the NHL, putting up a respectable four goals and 18 points, which would have put him on track for 33 points over an 82-game season.

Additionally, the Canadiens will be employing a few veterans of varying capabilities on their blueline. Mike Matheson was by most accounts the true No. 1 defenseman on the team last year with a strong showing of 34 points in 48 games. He was far and away the leader in average ice-time per game on Montreal, playing 24:27 a night. That is more than two minutes on average than David Savard, who came in second. Whichever way you slice it, the Canadiens have a dearth of defensive depth right now and it will likely become more pronounced as the season goes on and players start getting injured.

The Canadiens will be relying on the youngsters, from Guhle to Harris to Barron to Arber Xhekaj, to shoulder the load on the back end, and while they will inevitably gain valuable experience in the NHL, this does place Montreal near the bottom of the league on paper in the defensive side of the game. The only other defenseman who can be considered a veteran is Chris Wideman, but he will likely play most of the season in the American Hockey League. The kids have the keys to the car.

GOALTENDING

The Canadiens have three goalies on one-way deals going into the 2023-24 season. They include Jake Allen, Casey DeSmith and Samuel Montembeault. It’s safe to say that Carey Price will be on LTIR indefinitely, so he does not factor into the team’s plans. They also have Cayden Primeau waiting in the wings but it’s unlikely he’ll see much NHL action this year. Last season they ran with a tandem of Allen and Montembeault, who played 42 and 40 games, respectively. They might continue with that strategy as Montembeault in particular flashed starter ability at times.

But the addition of DeSmith, who the acquired in the Erik Karlsson/Jeff Petry trade, does complicate things slightly. DeSmith posted better stats than both Montreal goalies last season, albeit with a considerably better team in front of him. The Canadiens could start the season with all three goalies on the roster and cycle them until, hopefully, one of them takes the starting job. There is also the possibility of one or more of the goalies being traded at some point during the season. DeSmith is the obvious choice, being the odd one out and having the better stats in recent years than Montembeault or Allen. It’s important to note that while other teams might not have the cap space to run with three active goalies on the roster, the Canadiens are going into the season with a projected ~$5.7 million in cap space once Price is placed on LTIR.

COACHING

The Canadiens will be keeping last year’s coaching staff intact. Martin St-Louis stays on as the head coach and all his assistant coaches from last year will be back behind the bench. They include former NHL players Alex Burrows, Stephane Robidas, and Trevor Letowski. All four coaches have never been behind any other NHL bench. A breath of fresh air can sometimes pay off dividends as opposed to the strategy of only hiring coaches with extensive experience in the NHL. The St-Louis era has given reason for cautious optimism thus far, with him resurrecting the career of Caufield right off the bat and creating a good locker room culture.

St-Louis has been behind the bench in Montreal for 1.5 seasons and has compiled a record of 45-64-10, which obviously isn’t great. But the true record is how he has been able to continue the development of his younger players. The Canadiens are going into the 2023-24 season as the third-youngest team in the NHL with an average age of just under 26. Many key areas of the team will be completely manned by inexperienced players who will have to step up to the plate. St-Louis’ main challenge this year is to make sure that his younger players don’t get demolished out there while also continuing their development into long-term NHL players.

ROOKIES

The Canadiens find themselves in an interesting spot right now. They have undoubtedly one of the best prospect pools in the league but most of their younger players have either become full-time NHLers or are a couple of years away from joining the NHL. Players like Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Barron, Harris, Jesse Ylonen, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Xhekaj, and Johnathan Kovacevic had all graduated rookie status during the 2022-23 season and are now, at least by Calder Trophy eligibility rules, full-time NHLers.

However, Montreal does have one of the most anticipated prospects in the NHL who could become a full-time NHL player this year. Sean Farrell played six games in the NHL last year after scoring 53 points in 34 games for Harvard University. The 21-year-old proved everything he needed to prove at the collegiate level and has now turned pro. If he does end up playing the 2023-24 season in Montreal he could be a candidate for the Calder Trophy, but there is also a chance the team sends him down to the AHL for further development.

Center Owen Beck is also a guy who can make a difference at the pro level, but it remains to be seen whether the team will give him an NHL spot this year. He put up good numbers in the OHL with 66 points in 60 games this past season as well as 16 points in 22 playoff games with the Peterborough Petes.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1: Who will be the starting goalie this year? The Canadiens have three goalies who can all handle a significant workload in the NHL. While it is true that one of Montembeault, DeSmith, or Allen could very well be traded at some point this year, as of now all three are set to play in Montreal. It will be up to all three goalies to fight for playing time in the crease this season. It will be interesting to see how DeSmith fares without the veteran Penguins in front of him. And can Montembeault continue to slowly progress towards becoming a legit NHL 1A goalie?

2: Can the defense hold up? As of now, the Canadiens have only two defensemen in their projected lineup who have at least two seasons of experience in the NHL. Matheson can play in most situations and lead the group but Savard, the other veteran on the back end, has taken a step back in recent years and is a limited usage, defensive-minded player. Do the Canadiens go out and acquire another veteran or two, or do they rely on their inexperienced sophomores to get the job done? And unfortunately for them, they won’t have a goalie who can bail them out of bad situations, like they used to have with Carey Price.

3: Will Juraj Slafkovsky take another step in his development? Over the last 15 years or so, the Canadiens have had an abysmal first-round drafting record. And although he has improved over the last few years, they cannot afford to miss on a first overall pick. Slafkovsky had a forgettable rookie season, posting four goals and 10 points in 39 games. His underlying numbers weren’t great and didn’t either post satisfactory numbers alongside his most common linemates, Anderson and Dvorak. The Canadiens are at the point in their rebuild where they desperately need guys like Slafkovsky to realize their potential and help round out their top-six scoring.

PREDICTION

It’s clear to anyone who follows the NHL that that the Canadiens are in no position to qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2023-24. They will finish at the bottom of the hyper-competitive Atlantic Division this year, probably a good 10-15 points below the 7th place team. The goal for this year is to identify which of their young players will become long-term staples on the team and to see what can be done about their expensive and mostly underwhelming veterans. However, just because they won’t make the playoffs does not mean they can’t be an entertaining team at times. A full season of Caufield, Dach, Guhle, and Slafkovsky will be very fun to watch and it will be interesting to see if their core of young players can create a winning culture.