10 Rebound Candidates for the 2023-24 NHL Season

Even if Dustin Wolf figures into the Flames’ plans, Markstrom is the key to the team returning to the playoffs this season. Goalies are voodoo, so they’re the hardest to predict for a potential rebound season. But Markstrom isn’t as bad as he was in 2022-23. 

At the same time, he isn’t as good as he was in 2021-22 when he was a Vezina Trophy finalist. He has a .907 SV% over the last three seasons, just under his career average of .909. If he can get back to that level, the Flames have a good enough roster to be a playoff team. Having one of the best blue lines in the NHL should put him in a position to succeed. 

Anton Lundell

Anton Lundell had a fantastic rookie season in 2021-22, totaling 18 goals and 44 points in 65 games for the Panthers. But he took a step back in 2022-23, finishing with 12 goals and 33 points in 73 games. Part of that was because his shooting percentage dipped from 14.4 percent as a rookie to 7.9 last season. 

That puts his career shooting percentage at 10.8 percent, where he probably is realistically as a shooter. If Lundell scored on 10.8 percent of his shots last season, he would’ve finished with 16 goals.

Lundell’s on-ice shooting percentage dropped by about five percent between his rookie and sophomore campaigns. I don’t expect his on-ice SH% to jump above 12 percent again. But the Panthers should score more when he’s on the ice, especially if his individual shooting percentage regresses positively. It’ll also be his third season in the NHL, so he could take a significant jump forward since he’s still developing. 

Ross Colton

Ross Colton’s production didn’t slip much from 2021-22 to last season, but his impacts did decline. His GAR fell from 6.3 in 2021-22 to 0.9 this past season, and he didn’t have the same kind of two-way presence that he did in 2021-22 when he finished with 22 goals and 39 points. 

Colton is the ideal candidate for a rebound season due to a change of scenery after getting traded to the Colorado Avalanche this offseason. He’s skated alongside Tomáš Tatar, who’s one of the most underrated play drivers in the NHL, at the start of training camp. Line combos change throughout the season, but he could rebound quite a bit if Tatar is his most common linemate. 

It’s also worth noting that Colton’s five-on-five shooting percentage (9.76 percent) was the lowest of his career last season. He should get more consistent top-nine minutes with the Avalanche, meaning he could return to being a 20-goal scorer with improved impacts. 

Anthony Duclair

Duclair’s 2022-23 season got off to a late start due to him rehabbing from a torn Achilles he suffered training last offseason. He played in just 20 games for the Panthers, finishing with two goals and nine points. He did pick it up a bit in the playoffs, totaling four goals and 11 points in 20 contests. 

It’s fair to assume that Duclair was never 100 percent, even after returning from his injury. A torn Achilles can take time to recover from, especially for a player who relies on his speedy skating, such as Duclair. He’s a good rebound candidate for this season, but it will come on a new club. 

With the Panthers needing to clear some cap space, they dealt Duclair and his $3 million cap hit to the San Jose Sharks this offseason. The Sharks will likely be a bottom-feeder this season, but there’s some decent top-six talent for Duclair to work with in San Jose. 

If he gets consistent ice time with Logan Couture or Tomáš Hertl, he could return to being a 25-goal scorer. His GAR declined from 9.8 in 2021-22 to minus-3.3 last season, and it’s safe to assume that was injury-related. He should rebound if he’s back or close to 100 percent healthy. 

Kailer Yamamoto

Another player whose 2022-23 campaign didn’t go as expected due to injuries, Kailer Yamamoto has bounce-back potential if he can stay healthy. He finished last season with 10 goals and 25 points in 58 games, but his underlying numbers were relatively encouraging, as he had a positive impact at even strength and on the power play:

The Edmonton Oilers chose not to tender Yamamoto a qualifying offering this offseason, making him an unrestricted free agent. He’d end up signing a one-year deal worth $1.5 million with the Seattle Kraken, who should be a playoff contender this season. 

With Daniel Sprong signing with the Detroit Red Wings in free agency, Yamamoto could replace Sprong’s minutes in Seattle. It’s a good opportunity for him, and he could return to being a 20-goal scorer if he can stay healthy. 

Andrew Mangiapane

I promise this is the last Calgary Flame in this article, but Andrew Mangiapane may have the most bounce-back potential of any player on the team. After being one of the better finishers in the league over the previous three seasons, his shooting percentage dipped to a career-low 9.3 percent in 2022-23, well below his career average of 14.3 percent. 

Mangiapane did finish with 17 goals and 43 points, so he was still productive. It just wasn’t at the level we’re used to seeing from him. If he had scored on 14.3 percent of his shots a season ago, he would’ve finished with 26 goals. 

It’s also worth noting that Mangiapane’s individual point percentage dipped to 60.34 percent. That is closer to the league average for forwards, which is around 68 percent, but it’s also well below the IPP he posted in his previous two seasons (75.5 and 83.87 percent). That further strengthens the argument that he’s the Flames’ best bounce-back candidate, even more so than Huberdeau and Markstrom. 

Bryan Rust

Bryan Rust has long been one of the Pittsburgh Penguins’ more reliable top-six scorers. He was still solid a season ago, finishing with 20 goals and 46 points in 81 games, but he was also the victim of some uncharacteristically poor shooting luck. 

Rust finished the 2022-23 season with a 9.5 shooting percentage, below his 12.3 percent career average. Had he scored on 12.3 percent of his shots a season ago, he would’ve totaled 26 goals. That might not seem like a significant difference, but it could matter for a team that missed the playoffs by one point and is looking to return in the postseason.  

The one thing to consider with Rust is his age (31), but there are no signs of age-related decline in his game yet. His shot generation rates at five-on-five in 2022-23 were some of the best of his career. He just didn’t convert on them at his usual rates. With a new front office in place and some shakeups made by Kyle Dubas, namely acquiring Erik Karlsson, it’d expect Rust to experience better shooting luck in 2023-24. 

Ondrej Palát

The New Jersey Devils took a significant step forward in 2022-23, totaling 52 wins and 112 points in the standings. The hope was Ondrej Palát, their big free-agent signing in 2022, would play a significant part in that leap up the Metropolitan Division. But groin surgery just a few games into the regular season derailed those plans before they could begin.

Palát finished last season with only eight goals and 23 points in 49 games and never looked 100 percent after he returned from surgery in early January. The hope is that with him fully healthy to begin 2023-24, he can help provide scoring depth in the Devils’ top-nine. 

There are reasons for Devils fans to be cautiously optimistic about a Palát rebound year. His microstats, particularly his playmaking and transition, graded out well last season. They need his forechecking to return to the level it was with Lightning, but perhaps it does with him now healthy. 

The Devils don’t need Palát to be a 55-60 point scorer with their lineup, but if he contributes 45-50 points, they’ll gladly take it. His IPP of 58.06 in 2022-23 was a bit below the 63.78 IPP he averaged in his previous three seasons, so there’s a bit there to suggest he’ll bounce back. 

Lucas Raymond

Lucas Raymond had an excellent rookie season in 2021-22, totaling 23 goals and 57 points in 82 games. But he had the typical sophomore slump last season, finishing with 17 goals and 45 points in 74 games. What was most concerning about his game wasn’t poor shooting luck. Instead, it’s his microstats profile. 

Raymond did not fare well off the rush, which looked like it’d be a strength of his as a draft-eligible prospect. Perhaps that dropoff is partly related to head coach Derek Lalonde’s system. Perhaps it isn’t. But if his work in transition takes a significant step forward, he could be in line for a breakout season in 2023-24. 

This is more about believing in a top prospect who didn’t have a great second year in the NHL but has the talent to rebound rather than focusing on any metric. He’s just 21 years old, and there’s a good chance he’ll get ice time in the Red Wings’ top-six alongside Dylan Larkin and possibly Alex DeBrincat, who the Wings acquired this summer. That should work in his favor to help him rebound in his third NHL season. 

A player can regress just as easily as one can rebound. While it’s no guarantee that the 10 players listed here will bounce back in 2023-24, they have the most potential to get back to scoring levels they hit before the 2022-23 campaign. 

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey