With season on the line, Klemm and the big boys must come up large for Patriots vs. Jets

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Or, at least, Klemm has enough to figure this out.

The new line coach is a fairly big unknown. While he did some nice work for a couple of seasons at Oregon, he didn't last a full season in the same role with the Steelers. To this point, and it's not a great sample size, Klemm's work has been underwhelming. None of the rookies have popped, and they've been out there the entire run dating back to OTAs. The pad level has not been great, and it's been a big part of their struggles. There have blown blocking assignments on some fairly basic stuff.

To this point, according to ESPN, the Patriots rank 31st in pass block win rate, and 19th in run block win rate.

There's never enough good (padded) practices to enable great line play, but every team is playing on the same level. Klemm has to put his foot down and get everything cleaned up - and fast - or this season will be over and he'll be in the crosshairs. 

This is a very tough challenge. In base, the Jets feature RDT Quinnen Williams and LDE John Franklin-Myers as mismatch issues. Williams should get Strange a lot, and RT will have to deal with Franklin-Myers. RDE Jermaine Johnson and LDT Quinton Jefferson are tough against the fun. In nickel, Bryce Huff comes in at LDE and Franklin-Meyers moves to LDT. 

The Jets are 18th in pass rush win rate and 12th in run block win rate. That doesn't seem that daunting, but the Dolphins are 11th/32nd and Eagles 15th/3rd and they whipped the Patriots the first two weeks.

Things did not go well for the line in last year's matchups with the Jets with one big caveat: Andrews was limited to just 15 snaps in the second matchup.

Matchup 1: Pressure 48.9%, Run Stuff 46.9%

"Collectively, just awful. The pressure percentage was bad enough, but they were also terrible run blocking. It wasn't anything the Jets did — they just physically manhandled the Patriots across the board. ... Ferentz and Brown held their own most of the day. Onwenu was largely solid but was a little off for him. ... Strange had three good weeks against the Packers, Lions and Browns but he's had his two worst games the last two weeks. I don't think it's bad enough to be benched but something to monitor."

Matchup 2: Pressure 35.3%, Run Stuff 37.9%

"It was a little better than last week but it's still not sustainable. ... One big worry: Onwenu had 6 of his 7 minus plays (previous high: 5) in the second half. When that happens, you worry about an injury. He is not on the injury report, but that often doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to linemen. ... Strange gets a lot of help from the centers in pass protection, so his numbers are good there, but he's punching out of weight class in the running game against some of these teams.

The pressure, especially, is on Strange and Onwenu, who had some of their worst performances against Williams and Co.

Factor in the rain and wind forecast for the game on Sunday, and you can see why the Patriots have to step their game up.

The weather is not going to be as bad as the Buffalo wind game a few years ago, but it may be that type of game. The Patriots won that game because their offensive line was stellar and just straight up push the Bills around:

"If you take away Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu, this group was virtually perfect in a virtuoso performance, and those guys weren't even bad — they just weren't as good as the other four. ... All told, this group had 18 plus run blocks, which is unheard of. Ted Karras led the way with five, followed by David Andrews' four. ... In order of effectiveness: Andrews, Mason, Wynn, Karras, Brown, Onwenu."

The Patriots may very well need that kind of performance out of their line. Can they do it? Can Klemm get them ready to play at that level?

We will find out, as the Patriots' season perhaps hinges on their effort.

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NICKEL PACKAGE

1. The Patriots seem to be playing 3rd quarterback roulette with all the comings and goings. Next up wearing No. 19: Will Grier, the Panthers' third-round pick in 2019 out of West Virginia. Patriots are his fourth NFL team. He last appeared in two Panthers games in 2019, completing 53.8 percent of passes at 4.4 yards per attempt, 0 TDs, 4 INTs and 6 sacks. Panthers lost those games a combined 80-16 (Cam Newton's final season there). Grier comes from the Air Raid system and as is typical of most of those QBs, he's not great reading defenses after the snaps, and he can be reckless with the ball. Arm is good. "Like him more than (Matt) Corral…has gotten better over time," said one AFC evaluator.

2. Interesting that Bill Belichick said Grier will be the emergency third QB on Sunday. They didn't seem to be in a rush to do that the first two games, why the rush to do it now? Could there be an injury concern with Jones? Not out of the question. It seems clear the Patriots are looking for better than Bailey Zappe, and Grier could be that (he's also almost 6-3).

3. The Patriots downgraded CB Jonathan Jones (ankle) to out for this game. Most weeks that would be a big worry, especially with Marcus Jones (shoulder) on IR, but against Zach Wilson in bad weather ... better to rest up for the Cowboys. Still, Shaun Wade out there will be pretty tempting for the Jets, but Jalen Millis is another option. Expect to see a lot of zone.

4. It's better news for the Patriots that Jets LT Duane Brown (shoulder/hip) was downgraded to out. They are in rough shape on the offensive line, and the Patriots defensive front needs to win their trench ware up front.

5. Zach Wilson knows what he needs to do ... can he do it? Wilson is 0-4 against the Patriots with two touchdown passes, seven INTs — all coming in the Jets’ two home games — and a passer rating of 50.6 while completing just 50.9% of his passes. 

“I just need to be smart with the ball,” Wilson told reporters this week. “Especially last time we played them at home, a lot of them were just dumb plays by me. I need to play one play at a time, be efficient with the football, trust what I’m seeing and play ball.”

Jets might have won both those games if Wilson was more of a runner than a passer. That would be an interesting wrinkle in this game if the Jets went that route.

GAME PICK

Fanduel odds: Patriots -2.5, 36.5 o/u

Bedard's 2022 record: 15-2 straight up, 14-3 vs. spread. 2023: 1-1, 1-1.

Welp, I was wrong about last week. Did not expect the Patriots to get pushed around on both lines like that. I see them correcting that decisively in this one and doing just enough. I can't consider an 0-3 and perhaps 0-4 Patriots team. Can't do it.

Patriots 15, Jets 12