Will the Colts pick up Kwity Paye's 5th-year option?

The Colts drafted Paye with the 21st pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Since then, he has appeared in 43 games and recorded 129 total tackles, 21 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks. He is also coming off his best season as a pro yet setting new career highs with 52 total tackles and 8.5 sacks. 

Paye has been one of the most consistent run defenders on the Colts roster since coming into the league and is easily the single best run defender in the team's edge room at the moment. And he finished last season 2nd on the team in sacks, just one behind Samson Eburkam, who had 9.5. While some may question if Paye has lived up to the hype, I think the argument could be made that he is the most well-rounded player in their edge room.

I think as a pass rusher, Paye is better suited to be the complementary piece to a truly dominant top-tier pass rusher. And now enter 2024 1st round pick Laiatu Latu. There are some questions about Latu's abilities in the run game, but you can't question how dominant he is as a pass rusher. A duo of Latu and Paye could end up being special, with the Colts also having Dayo Odeyingbo and Ebukam as rotational pieces.  

Should the Colts pick up Paye's 5th-Year Option? 

If the Colts pick up Paye's fifth-year option, it will give him a fully guaranteed $13.4 million for 2025. If they decline it, he will be set to hit free agency following this upcoming season. I think Paye is a talented player whose overall skill set gets overlooked at times because he hasn't produced as a top-tier pass rusher after being selected in the first round. I think pushing off his free agency for another year and guaranteeing two years of Latu and Paye playing together would be wise for the Colts, so I'd pick up his option if I were making that decision. 

Will the Colts pick up Paye's 5th-Year Options? 

This is a more challenging question to answer, but if I had to guess, I think the Colts end up declining Paye's option. They've let this go up to the buzzer for a reason, and I think their choice to draft Latu with the 15th pick could lean them toward declining Paye's option and working to get a long-term deal done at potentially a lower number than the fully guaranteed $13.4 million 5th-year option. But it would also allow them to see what the duo of Latu and Paye looks like together. There is a risk with this choice, though, because if the Colts decline Paye's option and he and Latu form a dynamic duo, his asking price could increase beyond that of his 5th-year option.