Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott. Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Will the Bills' flaws matter against the Vikings in pivotal Week 10 matchup?

By Andrew Marshall | Last updated 11/12/22

After beating Aaron Rodgers and the team from dairy-loving Wisconsin, the Buffalo Bills offensive line looked like Swiss cheese against a dominant New York Jets defensive front in a Week 9 upset loss. Now the Bills must play against the red-hot Minnesota Vikings (7-1) on Sunday, perhaps without injured quarterback Josh Allen.

Bills head coach Sean McDermott expressed confidence in backup Case Keenum, who would get the start against a team he took to the NFC Championship Game in January 2018. In his only action in 2022, Keenum completed two passes on seven attempts in garbage time against the Titans and Steelers.

Buffalo is flawed for a Super Bowl favorite. Allen has now made major mistakes in consecutive weeks, which he more than took accountability for after the game. His only other game against Minnesota came in Week 3 of 2018, when he led the Bills to a road upset as a 17-point underdog while famously embarrassing former Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr in the process.

Josh Allen just HURDLED Anthony Barr pic.twitter.com/9103YxPwG4
— NFL Stats (@NFL_Stats) September 23, 2018

The Bills' rushing game is reliant on their star quarterback and perimeter runs that inflate their overall yards per carry. Buffalo's coverage-oriented defense also periodically allows bigger rushing performances.

Interestingly, the Bills gave up only 3.9 yards per carry in 2021 on 271 opponent "under center" rushing attempts, and 3.3 yards per carry on 88 attempts on these runs this year, per Pro Football Reference.

Minnesota runs from "under center" 76.59% of the time this year (144 of 188 total runs) as many of their play-action concepts are tied to these runs — something that should prove advantageous for Buffalo this week.

The Bills are likely overvalued at their current betting odds because of season-long point differential, a metric that many books favor heavily when determining Super Bowl odds. Hopefully, they're just marginally overrated by Vegas or none of this really matters in the end — but the cause for concern isn't an overreaction.

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