Week 16 AFC East predictions: Dolphins earn statement win over Cowboys

Last week, the New York Jets became the second AFC East team to be eliminated from the playoffs, joining the New England Patriots. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills strengthened their case as legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Here are our predictions for the AFC East in Week 16. 

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9): The surging Bills have firmly re-established themselves as a Super Bowl contender and are perhaps the most dangerous team in the AFC at this point. QB Josh Allen needed to throw for just 94 yards in Buffalo's convincing 31-10 win over the Dallas Cowboys, as RB James Cook stole the spotlight by racking up 221 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. 

Buffalo has seemingly become a run-first team since Joe Brady replaced Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator, averaging 171.8 rushing yards, the second-most in the NFL across the last four games. However, it could look at Saturday's meeting with a Chargers team that recently fired Brandon Staley as head coach and Tom Telesco as general manager as an opportunity to refine the passing attack. Los Angeles has surrendered the most passing yards per game this season (283.2) and gave up 63 points, including five touchdown passes, to the Las Vegas Raiders in its last contest.

Over the years, we've seen plenty of teams come together to win the first game following a mid-season coaching firing, with Las Vegas doing so earlier this season. Nonetheless, given how dominant the Bills have been since Brady's promotion, that shouldn't be much of a factor, and they should take this one easily. 

PREDICTION: Bills, 35-10

Dallas Cowboys (10-4) at Miami Dolphins (10-4): One of the most anticipated matchups on the week's slate, the loser of this game will surely have their Super Bowl candidacy called into question. As mentioned, Dallas saw its five-game winning streak snapped in deflating fashion to Buffalo last week, whereas Miami responded to a gut-wrenching loss to the Titans by thrashing the Jets 30-0.

Regardless of the Cowboys' offensive difficulties in Buffalo, this matchup has all the makings of a shootout. Miami and Dallas are the top two scoring offenses in the NFL, with the Dolphins also ranking first in yards per game (414.1) while the Cowboys sit sixth in that category (368.1). 

Even though Miami has yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, it is 6-1 at home, which doesn't bode well for the Cowboys, given that they're 7-8 on the road since 2022. Count on the Dolphins to win a thriller behind a massive outing from wide receiver Tyreek Hill. "Cheetah" missed last week's contest with an ankle injury and must amass 458 yards over the final three games to accomplish his goal of becoming the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history. 

PREDICTION: Dolphins, 24-21

Washington Commanders (4-10) at New York Jets (5-9): With last week's embarrassing loss to Miami, the Jets have officially extended their playoff drought to 13 years, the longest active streak in North American sports. As a result, QB Aaron Rodgers indicated on Tuesday that he won't play this season after targeting a potential return from his Week 1 Achilles injury. Zach Wilson, who exited with a head injury last Sunday, will start against the Commanders if he clears concussion protocol, though Trevor Siemian would take over as the starter if he doesn't.

While both are underwhelming options, if there's ever a spot where the 32nd-ranked offense in terms of yardage (255.1) can break through, it's against the team allowing the most points and (30.2) yards per game (384.5). Additionally, the Jets defense has remained dominant despite the latest blowout loss and has allowed the fewest yards on average over the last three games (206.3). Although New York hasn't picked off a pass during that span, it should have a greater chance of doing so against Washington's Sam Howell, considering he has thrown six interceptions in his last four games. 

PREDICTION: Jets, 20-17

New England Patriots (3-11) at Denver Broncos (7-7): New England fought hard against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, jumping out to an early 10-7 lead before things quickly unraveled. With a defense allowing the fewest points per game this season (13.3), the Patriots can keep any game close, but QB Bailey Zappe's inconsistency hinders their chances of winning, which could be a similar storyline in this matchup.

Despite starting games relatively strong, Zappe's dreadful second-half performances continue to cost New England. The 24-year-old has completed 69.2% of his pass attempts for 376 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions in the first half of games, posting a 115.5 passer rating. In contrast, Zappe has thrown for 343 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions in the second half while registering a 53.5% completion percentage and 43.3 passer rating.

Having lost two of their last three games, the Broncos likely squandered their chances of clinching a playoff berth. Even so, they've been one of the better teams in the NFL since their Week 9 bye, making it likely that they'll remain in the hunt for at least another week with a win over New England.

PREDICTION: Broncos, 21-14