Week 14 NFL underdog report: Bears, Bills better after bye

Detroit quarterback Jared Goff played well against the Saints but lost three fumbles against division rival Green Bay on Thanksgiving. If the Bears get to Goff, he’ll give them the ball. The Lions would like to lean on David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and their fourth-ranked running game this week, but no team gives up less yards per game than the Bears.

Expect a tight, low scoring and possibly ugly game that Chicago can easily win with a few good breaks.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Don’t look now, but the Chiefs have lost three of their last five games. After averaging a league-best 413.6 yards and 29.2 points per game in 2022, Kansas City ranks eighth and 11th in those categories in 2023.

So what’s the problem? Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes remains the NFL’s eighth-leading passer, but the team barely cracks the top-10 in yardage this season. Tight end Travis Kelce has just two touchdowns in his last seven games and while wide receiver Rashee Rice has shown steady improvement, he’s only the NFL’s 40th-ranked receiver.

The Bills offense has been better. After 13 weeks they rank fourth in yardage and fifth in points scored. Quarterback Josh Allen had 420 total yards and four touchdowns against Philadelphia heading into last week’s bye.

That week off could be the difference for Bills. Buffalo is 6-0 coming off a bye under head coach Sean McDermott. More importantly, with the Dolphins practically a lock to win the AFC East, Buffalo can’t afford to go 6-7. 

According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Bills have a 15% chance of making the playoffs. On the other hand, Kansas City’s chances of reaching the postseason are 99%. Buffalo may be 1-3 in its last four games, but it has enough talent to beat the Chiefs in a game it desperately needs.