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Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Two 'MNF' bets: Opting for alt-yardage props for the Buffalo Bills

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 11/12/23

The Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos as touchdown favorites in much need of a win on Monday night. My impression of this one is some Bills dominance, and I'm attacking a few of their key pieces to have big games in this one.

1u: Dalton Kincaid 60+ receiving yards (+120 DraftKings)

I've bet on Dalton Kincaid two straight weeks and see no reason to stop now. Since Dawson Knox got hurt, Kincaid has exploded, showing us why he was drafted in the first round this past April.

The Bills tight end has been targeted 26 times in the last three games, hauling in 23 catches. He's finished with yardage totals of 75, 65 and 81 during this stretch, and here we are getting plus-money for him to hit 60+.

The matchup makes it all the better. Denver is allowing the fourth-most receptions/game to the tight end position and the most yards per game at 71.1.

I love Kincaid tonight.

1u: James Cook 100+ rushing & receiving yards (+205 DK)

On paper there's everything to like here when it comes to a running back playing the Broncos. Denver came into Week 10 allowing the most rushing yards per game to running backs at 130.88 and leading the NFL with 5.4 yards allowed per rush attempt. DVOA agrees with these more traditional metrics, grading out the Broncos as the second-worst run defense.

Denver also has issues slowing down RBs through the air, allowing the third-most receptions/game to the position and the fourth-most receiving yards/game.

Cook is the clear top back on Buffalo and seemingly set to pop. I considered a few different paths, I thought Cook looked good for 60+ rushing yards and 20+ receiving yards, but I'm taking a shot here on 100+ rushing & receiving yards combined, a mark he's hit in three games this season.

What I've done here is read into what the sportsbooks are telling us they think happens for Cook in this one. They have his line set at 2.5 receptions and 13.5 rush attempts. When Cook catches 2+ balls, he's over this 100 rushing & receiving yards line in three of his last five games. When he logs 13+ rush attempts, he's gone over 100+ total yards from scrimmage in four of six.

When he hits both marks (13+ rush attempts, 2+ receptions), Cook is a perfect 4-4 in his young career at going over the century mark, averaging 119.5 total yards.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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