TNF long play prop: Rookie receiver offers betting value

I bet Alec Pierce's long catch Week 1 because of the explosive play ability he displayed in college. He dropped a pair of long catches in that game and got hurt, missing Week 2.

I then basically forgot he existed, and what does he do but record a 33-yard catch in Week 3 and notch two 20+ yard catches in Week 4, with his long going for 44 yards.

I think you see where this is going.

Alec Pierce over 17.5 longest reception (-114 FD)

Pierce has seen 11 targets over the past two weeks and is playing nearly half of the Colts offensive snaps. His aDOT of 14.6 tops the team, and he's averaging 20.1 yards per catch this season.

Yes, 20.1 yards per catch, and yet we can get his longest reception at only 17.5 yards on Thursday. Pierce has been targeted three times 20+ yards down the field, catching all of them. Both of those marks lead this Colts team, and it isn't particularly close. This with him missing a game, mind you.

Pierce averaged 17.5 yards per catch throughout his college career at Cincinnati, and the 6'3" speedster has translated that big-play ability to the pros.

Denver has allowed 10 passes of 20+ yards this season, with seven of them coming from the wide receiver position. With Patrick Surtain surely on Michael Pittman, that will leave Pierce with Ronald Darby, a corner who has been burned many a time over his career.