Three potential breakout wide receivers in fantasy football

As the NFL preseason draws to a close, fantasy football drafts are about to get underway. The wide receiver position has never been more prevalent in fantasy than today, so here are three breakout candidates that you cannot afford to leave your draft without. 

Garrett Wilson, Jets (ESPN ADP: 18.9)

After recording 83 receptions for 1,103 yards with terrible quarterback play en route to winning the 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, Wilson feels like the most obvious breakout candidate this season. Wilson hauled in just four touchdowns last season, none of which game in the nine games Zach Wilson threw to him. Now he finds himself as the focal point in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense, which should make him an instant fantasy superstar. 

It might be premature to dub Wilson as the next Davante Adams, but when looking at the now-Raiders' numbers with Rodgers, it's impossible not to be excited. Adams finished as a top-11 receiver in PPR points per game from 2016 to 2021 and had two seasons where he was the top per-game scorer by a wideout.

Considering his potential to finish as a top-12 wide receiver, drafting Wilson can provide you with plenty of flexibility during your draft, allowing for a variety of creative team builds. 

Chris Olave, Saints (ADP: 31.4) 

If you decide to pass on Wilson in round two, there is an opportunity to select a cheaper alternative in his former Ohio State teammate during the third round.  

Even with a washed-up Andy Dalton throwing him the ball last year, Olave produced a historic rookie season. Per Late-Round Fantasy Football’s JJ Zachariason, Olave ranked fifth in yards per route run by a rookie receiver since 2011 (2.42), trailing Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase.

Why is that a noteworthy statistic? Well, as Fresh Fantasy's Alex Caruso mentioned, every rookie wideout to exceed 2.25 yards per route run finished as a top-seven wide receiver in their sophomore season.

Oddly enough, even with the quarterback upgrade in Derek Carr, Olave is undervalued by ESPN, as he's coming off the board as the WR14. Meanwhile, Underdog Fantasy, a sharper platform, ranks Olave as the WR12, giving him a second-round price tag. It may seem like a subtle difference, but any small advantage you can get will improve your odds of winning your league.

Christian Watson, Packers (ADP: 56.2) 

Despite being a league-winning waiver wire pickup last season, the fantasy community is divided on Watson due to Rodgers' departure and the fact that his production mainly came from touchdowns (nine in 14 games). However, his talent and situation make Watson an intriguing target in fantasy drafts where wide receivers are sure to fly off the board early. 

While Jordan Love is a downgrade at quarterback, the Utah State product has impressed during the preseason, and Watson will be his clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game. 

Similarly to Olave, Watson had an all-time rookie season in terms of yards per route run, ranking seventh by a first-year wideout since 2011 (2.26). With receivers Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and tight end Robert Tonyan leaving behind 217 targets, Watson should see a huge increase in production and shouldn't be as touchdown-dependent to be effective.