Tampa Bay Buccaneers ceiling and floor for 2023

No Tom Brady spells big problems in Tampa Bay. The question surrounding the Bucs isn't whether the team suffers a decline but how steep their fall is.

Ceiling: 7-10

No one should expect the Bucs to be any better this season than in 2022 when they went 8-9 with Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are in competition for the starting role and neither inspires much confidence. Mayfield posted the worst QBR among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts last season while Trask has thrown the ball nine times in the NFL.

Even the most optimistic supporters should be wary of the team's prospects for 2023. Per ESPN, Tampa Bay is the underdog in its first five games and is only favored twice all season.

If the team avoids taking a giant step backward, it will have its defense to thank. Offensive coordinator Dave Canales will also play a role by recreating the magic he found with Geno Smith in Seattle last season, forcing us to reconsider Mayfield's (or Trask's) future in the pros.

Floor: 4-13

Last season didn't go as planned but it could have been even worse without Brady being the architect of four fourth-quarter comebacks. He was essentially the only offense the Bucs had as the rush offense ranked worst in the league, averaging 76.9 yards per game.

In the nine seasons prior to Brady's arrival, Tampa Bay averaged 5.4 wins and had a .340 winning percentage overall. It's easy to envision how the Bucs revert to that form. Games against Philadelphia, Buffalo and San Francisco are likely losses. Minnesota, Detroit and Jacksonville are three other formidable opponents. The Bucs went 4-2 against their division in 2022 and could easily go 2-4 this season. That puts them at 2-10 with games against Chicago, Houston, Tennessee, Indianapolis and Green Bay remaining.

The Bears are likely to improve on a disappointing 2022 while the Packers are in a similar position as the Bucs in replacing a Hall of Famer at QB. The Colts, Texans and Titans aren't as threatening but all have more upside at QB than Tampa.