Super Bowl prop: Two QBs looking to make their mark

We very nearly got a Super Bowl rematch between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, which from a quarterback perspective is as good as it gets. Instead, we get a different kind of old guard vs. new guard QB battle between Matt Stafford of the Rams and Joe Burrow of the Bengals. 

Stafford toiled in Detroit for years posting pretty good numbers for teams that never won. The assumption was that in a better situation he could be just as good as other elite signal callers and the results have proven that to be true. Now he has a chance to win a Super Bowl and punctuate what might be a Hall of Fame career.

Burrow's career has started similarly to Stafford's in that both are quarterbacks who were drafted #1 in their drafts to teams without much success historically. Burrow has quickly flipped the narrative in Cincinnati to the point that they look like they could be a contender for the next decade with him at the helm. We know he can be great in big games too. He lead LSU to an NCAA Championship just a couple of seasons ago. 

Quarterback Super Bowl Props

While the limits are going to be higher at your sportsbook, betting quarterback props for the Super Bowl is going to be pretty much the same as doing so during the season.

You should be able to get down on:

• passing yards
• TDs
• attempts
• completions
• longest completion

For Matt Stafford, those numbers break down as

281.5 Yards1.5 TDs Over (-162)/Under (+122)
36.5 attempts
24.5 completions
39.5 longest completion

The odds for Joe Burrow...

276.5 Yards
2.5 TDs Over (+148)/Under (-200)
36.5 attempts
24.5 completions
39.5 longest completion

What stands out at first is how close these numbers are. That can't be the norm but these are two players who had strong regular seasons and have the complete confidence of their coaches.

If you are looking at regular season stats Stafford and Burrow are very comparable. Stafford finished 3rd in the league in passing yards (Burrow 6th) but it was close and he also had the benefit of an extra game as Cincinnati was able to rest Burrow the final week of the season. Stafford did throw for more touchdowns (41 to 34) but he also had more interceptions too (17-14) and that is how Burrow bested him in passer rating.

Both of these quarterbacks know that if you are going to make big plays you are going to make some mistakes too. They have both been great in the clutch, especially Stafford, who has been amazing in the second half of games. 

In looking at the props one of those really jumps out and it might not be the one you expect. I really like the over on the 39.5 yards longest completion for both players. 

Stafford led the league this season with 18 passes over 40 yards and Burrow was tied for second (with Justin Herbert) with 15. Those are the only players in the league with more than 11 such plays and with their arms and the ability of receivers such as Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to get yards after the catch, both teams should have opportunities for big plays. 

When you are handicapping QBs you are also handicapping gameplay to the extent that teams tend to throw more when they are losing. 

Cincinnati has put Burrow in harm's way all season long. Nobody got sacked more in during the regular season and that has carried over to the playoffs. If you like the Bengals' chances then you might want to fade Burrow a little bit. Those numbers have been right around his averages but if they are playing with a lead I can see how they might want to let Joe Mixon do some heavy lifting. That being said, the Rams were 22nd against the pass during the season and when Burrow is dealing the Bengals don't take the ball out of his hands. 

Matt Stafford has seen his passing attempts go up with each playoff game. The 17 attempts he had against the Cardinals were an outlier but the 38 and 45 attempts he has had in the last 2 games are very in line with what we have seen this season. Both of those games would have easily cashed the overs on all his props too. Cincinnati can put some heat on quarterbacks and they had a strong game against Patrick Mahomes last week but they are definitely susceptible to giving up passing yards. They were 26th against the pass during the regular season.

At these numbers, I am leaning to the over in most categories. A lot of these lines seem pretty fair at the moment so we will see how they move, especially if there are any drops to pounce on. 

All the extra prep time helps offenses and defenses but I don't think it is going to change the mindset of either coach. Both are pretty aggressive and they are going to let their quarterbacks decide the outcome.