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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15). Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL wild-card bets: Griffin Carroll's early looks for all six games

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 1/8/24

The NFL playoff field is set, and while it's sad to see the regular season go, we've got some exciting football ahead. The Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are on bye, leaving us with 12 teams and six games this weekend to parse through. Each offers intriguing betting value on first glance, and stick around here at Yardbarker all week as we break these games down.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Cleveland -2.5 Over/under: 44 points

Candidly, we were hoping these two teams would draw different opponents, as we're high on both Cleveland and Houston. C.J. Stroud has had a remarkable rookie season and looks the part as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. However, defense wins championships, and no team has a better unit on that side of the ball than the Browns. Amari Cooper and Joe Flacco torched this secondary just a few weeks ago, and a repeat performance could be in store.

Bet: Cleveland -2.5

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024, 8 p.m. ET
Spread: Kansas City -3.5 Over/under: 43.5 points

On one hand, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are dealing with a ton of injuries and haven't often found wins against strong teams. On the other, Kansas City has not looked right for the past month. We are going to have to back the playoff experience of Patrick Mahomes and co. at home, especially with them rested up after sitting in Week 18.

Bet: Kansas City -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
Spread: Buffalo -9.5 Over/under: 37.5 points

Good for the Steelers for clinching a playoff spot, but they are probably the worst team in the field, especially with T.J. Watt expected out. This is the largest spread of the weekend, but it does feel hard to back a Buffalo team to win by 10+, something they've done only once over their past five wins. Consider the under instead. Mason Rudolph should have a difficult time against this defense, and Josh Allen's turnovers continue to keep points off the board.

Bet: Under 37.5 points

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, 4:30 p.m. ET
Spread: Dallas -7.5 Over/under: 49.5 points

Dallas secured the NFC's No. 2 seed, and the two guaranteed home games that can come with it. That's a good sign for a Cowboys team 8-0 at home this season. Their offense should be able to pick apart a Packers secondary that has been vulnerable to explosive plays of late. Jordan Love has been good in his first season as a starter, but Dak Prescott and this passing attack are humming on all cylinders.

Bet: Dallas -7.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Detroit -3 Over/under: 51.5 points

Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit to face the Lions in their first home playoff game in decades; sometimes football really is just so poetic. This is the highest over/under of the weekend, and we agree with it, as our gut tells us this game should have fireworks. The Detroit defense, namely their secondary, has been a serious issue lately, which should give Stafford time to connect with his receivers. The Lions offense is explosive in their own right, this one is going to be fun. We lean the Rams winning, but points feels like the better place to start.

Bet: Over 51.5 points

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, Jan. 15, 2024, 8:15 p.m. ET
Spread: Philadelphia -2.5 Over/under: 44 points

No team is heading into the postseason on more of a whimper than the Philadelphia Eagles, who wrapped their season on a 1-5 slide. It makes their placement here as a road favorite all the more surprising. Tampa Bay squeaked by Carolina 9-0 on Sunday, but at home, one has to consider them the stronger play here. Philly has been figured out on both ends of the ball and has shown no fight over the past month and a half.

Bet: Buccaneers +2.5

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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