NFL Week 2: Picks and preview

STREAMING: Prime Video            LINE: Kansas City -4

The Chargers’ offense got and still gets plenty of attention, and for good reason, but their defense stole the show in Week 1. Los Angeles harassed Derek Carr into three interceptions and sacked him five times. Justin Herbert was razor-sharp against Vegas, but he’ll be without Keenan Allen, who is dealing with hamstring tightness. The Chiefs quelled fears of what life will be like post-Tyreek Hill, with Patrick Mahomes tossing five touchdowns to four different targets. He also wasn’t touched by Arizona’s defense, something that probably won’t hold true again in this game. What’s that I hear? The possibility of a Thursday night shootout? Sign me up.

Look smart to your friends:

-Even with Allen out, expect a big game from Mike Williams. He has posted 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown in two of his last three games against the Chiefs.

-Bad news for Chargers fans: Mahomes loves Thursday football. He has 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception, as well as a 114.3 passer rating in four career Thursday starts.

The pick: Chiefs 34 Chargers 31

TV: CBS            LINE: Cleveland -6.5

It was another Jets-like start to the season for New York, which is to say, a poor one. New York couldn’t stop the big play from Lamar Jackson, and Robert Saleh is already making excuses for his general manager about the state of the roster. Joe Flacco against Cleveland would normally be a good thing, but this isn’t 2012. The Browns benefited from a crucial missed call just before Cade York’s game-winning field goal against Carolina, but before that, the game was essentially their Deshaun Watson-less blueprint; run the ball, try to play solid defense, and hope that’s enough. Given the Jets’ struggles against Baltimore, it should be.

Look smart to your friends:

-Flacco does traditionally light it up against the Browns. He has 27 career touchdown passes against Cleveland, his most against any opponent.

-Kareem Hunt caught a touchdown and ran for one last week. That’s his seventh career game with a receiving and rushing touchdown, the fourth-most in the league since 2017.

The pick: Browns 27 Jets 13

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -1.5

Color me surprised that the Carson Wentz era in Washington got off to a good start. Wentz threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns and hit rookie Jahan Dotson for two scores. Dotson, for his part, became the second rookie since 1970 with a game-winning touchdown catch in the final two minutes of his first career game. That’s not the story here, though. The story is that – are you sitting down? – the Lions are favored for the first time in 24 games. Detroit certainly battled against the Eagles in Week 1, and D’Andre Swift had a monster game; there’s no question Dan Campbell’s team plays hard, but will that actually translate to a win and, dare I say it, a cover?

Look smart to your friends:

-Dotson got all the headlines in Week 1, but Terry McLaurin has been very reliably good against Washington. He’s bidding for his third game in a row against the Commanders with 5+ receptions and 70+ receiving yards.

-With his 8 catches in Week 1, Amon-Ra St. Brown became just the fifth player in NFL history with 8+ catches in seven consecutive games.

The pick: Lions 26 Commanders 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -2.5

Tampa Bay’s defense played a starring role in Week 1, stifling Dak Prescott and the Cowboys and knocking Prescott out of the game. Leonard Fournette was great too, but he, like several other Bucs, is banged up heading into this game. None of that matters, though, because we have Gisele-Tom Brady drama! Will he retire midseason? Does she really want him to find his happiness? Should any of us care about this? The mind races. The Saints survived Atlanta thanks to a late Will Lutz field goal and got themselves a nice homecoming game from Jarvis Landry in the process. Will their mastery of Brady in the regular season continue? Maybe. Will fans in the Superdome have very amusing signs about Brady’s awkward marriage dynamics? I sure hope so.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brady is 0-4 straight up and against the spread against New Orleans in the regular season. In those games, he’s been pressured on 32.2% of his dropbacks (20.9% versus everyone else), per Sharp Football Analysis.

-Don’t get too high and mighty, Saints fans. Also, per Sharp Football Analysis, the Saints had the lowest pressure rate (8.3%) and rate of hits on the quarterback (2.7%) of any team in Week 1.

The pick: Saints 28 Buccaneers 20

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -2

Carolina lost the Baker Bowl, but they have a pretty good case for blaming the officials, who picked up a late flag that they shouldn’t have, giving Cade York and the Browns the chance to steal a win. Mayfield was wretched early, but he and the offense got going as the game wore on. One thing is certain: Christian McCaffrey has to get more than 57 scrimmage yards this week. Brian Daboll’s first regular-season game ended with a bang, as hit gutsy decision to go for two and a late lead paid off and led the Giants to a 21-20 win over the Titans, with a big assist from Tennessee kicker Randy Bullock. Even more encouraging than Daboll’s bold decision was Saquon Barkley’s play. He piled up 164 yards on the ground and 30 more through the air, plus a touchdown.

Look smart to your friends:

-Mayfield has traditionally feasted on the NFC East. In four career starts versus the division, he has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions, and a 110.4 passer rating.

-Barkley could be primed for another big game. In his only career start game against Carolina, he had 129 scrimmage yards and two receiving touchdowns.

The pick: Giants 21 Panthers 20

TV: CBS            LINE: New England -2

Dysfunction. It’s a word that has never been associated with the Patriots during Bill Belichick’s reign, but it is right now. Mac Jones and the offense looked lost against Miami, and while Matt Patricia called plays against the Dolphins, he and Joe Judge are both working as quasi-offensive coordinators. The arrangement is hurting Jones and will continue to hurt the Patriots until they sort it out. Pittsburgh pulled off a shocker, entering Cincinnati and beating the defending AFC champs. They did it by turning over the Bengals five times and harassing Joe Burrow into his worst game as a pro. Even then, they needed a miraculous blocked extra point and a 53-yard field goal in the waning seconds of overtime to get the win. And they won’t have T.J. Watt for 4-6 weeks.  

Look smart to your friends:

-Hunter Henry’s only career game against the Steelers was a great one. The tight end piled up career highs with 8 catches and 100 yards and tied a career-high with 2 touchdowns.

-Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick’s pick-six against Burrow made him just the fourth player ever with an interception return for a touchdown in four of his first five seasons.

The pick: Steelers 23 Patriots 10

TV: CBS            LINE: Indianapolis -4

The Colts turned in one of the absolute stinker performances of Week 1, tying a Texans team that many feel will end up being the NFL’s worst by season’s end. It could have been much worse, of course. The Colts rallied from a 20-3 deficit to force overtime, but Rodrigo Blankenship missed a 42-yard field goal that would have won it and was subsequently waived earlier this week. Note to Indy: Perhaps focus more on why the game came to that point in the first place. Jacksonville did something very difficult, which is make Carson Wentz look good. Doug Pederson’s first game as coach ultimately ended in a thud; Trevor Lawrence’s numbers were pedestrian, and Travis Etienne was merely okay. The real issue for the Jaguars, however, is their defense. One imagines Jonathan Taylor licking his chops.

Look smart to your friends:

-Taylor already has six games with 150+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, which is tied for the fifth-most ever by a player in his first three seasons.

-James Robinson has 20 touchdowns in 29 career games, making him the second-fastest undrafted player to reach 20 touchdowns in the common-draft era.

The pick: Jaguars 30 Colts 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -3.5

Miami made short work of the Patriots in Week 1, with their defense in particular shining, though Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both made their presence felt as well. Miami’s task figures to get significantly tougher with a road trip to Baltimore, where the offense actually has an identity and even this thing called an offensive coordinator. Someone should tell New England about these novel, interesting concepts. If Lamar Jackson’s contract situation was a distraction, it didn’t show in Week 1. The Ravens weren’t firing on all cylinders or close to it, but Jackson made several big plays to make up for it, connecting twice with Devin Duvernay for touchdowns. Of course, the caveat is that they were playing the Jets. J.K. Dobbins likely returning should be a big boost now that they have a game against a real football team.

Look smart to your friends:

-The ball seems to find Melvin Ingram when he goes up against the Ravens. In his previous game against Baltimore, he had a career-high two fumble recoveries.

-Jackson has cooked the Dolphins in his two outings against them, with 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 121.3 passer rating against Miami.

The pick: Ravens 24 Dolphins 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -10.5

Atlanta actually protected Marcus Mariota well against the Saints, and they had a 16-point fourth-quarter lead. Things were going great! Then the lead evaporated, and Younghoe Koo’s last-gasp 63-yard field goal was blocked. Still, there were some encouraging signs, particularly offensively, in their performance. Cordarrelle Patterson picked up right where he left off last year, with 136 scrimmage yards. Los Angeles has had 10 days to lick its wounds after a humiliating season-opening loss. One assumes the Rams will be significantly better in this game. Matthew Stafford remembering that he’s a Super Bowl champion playing in L.A. and is no longer a Detroit Lion would go a long way towards curing what ails the defending champs. Also, might I suggest not throwing three interceptions this week? That usually helps.

Look smart to your friends:

-Drake London had a solid NFL debut. He had 5 receptions, and his 74 receiving yards were the most among rookies in Week 1.

-Tyler Higbee has become a solid target on a star-studded team. He’s bidding for his sixth game in a row with 5+ catches.

The pick: Rams 38 Falcons 20

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -8.5

Geno Smith got his revenge, at least for one night, on anyone that thought he couldn’t hack it as an NFL starter. He was outstanding in the first half against the Broncos and did enough to get Seattle a very gratifying win against Russell Wilson. The Seahawks got outgained by almost 200 yards, however, so Smith and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will have to figure out how to inject more consistency into the proceedings. The Niners stunk, to put it politely, in a swampy road loss to Chicago. Trey Lance completed less than half of his passes and threw a brutal interception that stopped a potential go-ahead drive and led to a Chicago insurance touchdown. Would another loss and poor performance by Lance lead to murmurs for Jimmy Garoppolo? I bet it would!

Look smart to your friends:

-Tyler Lockett is a road warrior. He’s bidding for his fourth-straight road game with 95+ receiving yards and his third road game in a row with a touchdown catch.

-Deebo Samuel owns the Seahawks. He’s bidding for his fourth-straight game against Seattle with 5+ catches and 100+ receiving yards.

The pick: 49ers 24 Seahawks 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -7

Two teams enter this game coming off surprising, disappointing losses, but only one of them is reeling, and it isn’t Cincinnati. The Bengals’ offensive line was atrocious in Week 1, but there’s reason to assume they’ll improve. Joe Burrow will never have a worse game than he did against Pittsburgh, either. And despite all that, the Bengals would have won had their long snapper not gotten hurt. The Cowboys? Well, I can’t find silver linings for this dark cloud. Cooper Rush apparently will be the man for the next two months or so, at which point the division may already be well out of reach. Dallas looked putrid before Dak Prescott got hurt, too, but is that even worth talking about?

Look smart to your friends:

-Burrow might have been bad, but his 338 passing yards gave him 7,637 in 27 career games and tied Kurt Warner as the third-fastest player to reach 7,500 yards in league history.

-Rush’s only previous career start wasn’t terrible. He threw for 325 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception last year against the Vikings.

The pick: Bengals 37 Cowboys 14

TV: CBS            LINE: Denver -10

I’m sure the Texans are disappointed that they couldn’t hold on to a 20-3 lead over Indianapolis, but they should feel lucky to have escaped the game with a tie. Houston was outgained by over 200 yards and gave up over 500 yards on defense. If there is a bright spot, it was Davis Mills, who went 23-of-37 for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Colts. Russell Wilson’s Seattle homecoming was filled with boos and ended in disappointment. Wilson wasn’t bad against the Seahawks, but 16 points is unacceptable, given how Denver moved the ball. What is really unacceptable is Nathaniel Hackett’s butchery of a do-or-die fourth down. What, another young offensive coach can’t manage game situations? Knock me over with a feather.

Look smart to your friends:

-Not only did the Texans back their way into a tie, but they also made a little history. Linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill and safety Jonathan Owens became the first pair of teammates each with 15+ tackles in the same game since 2015.

-Javonte Williams’ 11 catches in Week 1 were the second-most catches ever in a single game by a Denver running back.

The pick: Broncos 28 Texans 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Las Vegas -5.5

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals must feel humbled after what the Chiefs did to them in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes made everything look effortless, something I’m sure Murray’s coaches are hoping he starts to do sooner rather than later. Giving up nearly 500 yards of offense is bad, but what’s really unacceptable is for a Kliff Kingsbury-coached team to only total 282 of their own. The Raiders were victims of a Bad Derek Carr Game against the Chargers. Las Vegas could have won, but Carr’s three interceptions doomed them. The Raiders made a lot of splashy moves this offseason, but none of it will matter unless Carr can consistently outduel his fellow AFC West quarterbacks. That mission got off to a bumpy start, to be kind.

Look smart to your friends:

-Murray wasn’t bad against Kansas City. He just wasn’t nearly good enough. He has been quite good on the road lately, however, with 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating in four of his past 5 road starts.

-Carr is looking for his fourth-straight game without an interception against NFC West opponents. Raiders fans had better hope he got them all out of his system last week.

The pick: Raiders 33 Cardinals 28

TV: NBC            LINE: Green Bay -10

Other than Pittsburgh and Seattle, Chicago may have been Week 1’s big surprise winner, as Justin Fields made just enough big plays to win despite having overall pedestrian numbers in the Soldier Field soup. Making it two in a row will be a more difficult proposition on the road in Green Bay; the Bears will need to be much cleaner and more efficient on offense, which is possible, considering the fact that the game won’t be played in a lake. If last year is any indication, you should bet all of Aaron Rodgers’ overs for this game. Rodgers was atrocious against the Saints in Week 1 last season, throwing 2 interceptions and no touchdowns in a 38-3 rout. He proceeded to throw 37 touchdowns and 2 interceptions the rest of the year. His numbers in last week’s loss to the Vikings would have looked better had rookie Christian Watson not dropped what would have been a long touchdown, but even with Davante Adams gone, it’s probably unwise to bet against Rodgers two weeks in a row.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Bears have to get after Rodgers to have a chance, and to that end, defensive end Robert Quinn is looking for his third-straight game with a sack against the Packers.

-Aaron Jones is a touchdown machine at Lambeau Field; he has 31 touchdowns in 34 career home games.

The pick: Packers 40 Bears 23

TV: ESPN            LINE: Buffalo -10

I’m sure the Titans feel like they should be 1-0, and guess what – they’re right! Tennessee had a nice response after blowing a 13-0 lead, but Randy Bullock yanked a field goal that would have won the game. The good news is that Ryan Tannehill looked pretty sharp, with 266 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bad news is that Derrick Henry was bottled up, and the defense was brutal, letting Saquon Barkley run wild. Buffalo has no such concerns. No team was more impressive on both sides of the ball in Week 1 than the Bills. Josh Allen looked nearly flawless, and even his 2 interceptions weren’t much cause for concern, and the Bills dominated up front on defense. Where, exactly, are the holes with this team? I don’t see any at the moment.

Look smart to your friends:

-Buffalo’s defense is stout, and Henry scuffled in Week 1, but he’s bidding for his third-straight game with 2+ rushing touchdowns against the Bills.

-Von Miller racked up 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks against the Rams, his 21^st-career game with 2+ sacks, which is the fourth-most among active players.

The pick: Bills 35 Titans 24

TV: ABC            LINE: Philadelphia -2

Minnesota handled Green Bay with surprising ease, and Kirk Cousins soundly outplayed Aaron Rodgers. All in all, it was a perfect start to 2022 for the Vikings. The question with Minnesota is the same as it always is; can they sustain this level of performance? Given that there’s a new sheriff in town on the sideline, the answer might actually be yes. Philadelphia survived Detroit, thanks largely to a defensive touchdown and a strong game from Miles Sanders. Jalen Hurts didn’t set the world on fire, but it’s clear that Philly is fully committed to him, and early returns on the A.J. Brown trade were spectacular, as Brown tied his career high with 155 receiving yards. Both of these teams fancy themselves NFC contenders, so this is a good early measuring stick.

Look smart to your friends:

-Yes, Cousins sometimes struggles in prime time, but for his career, he has 13 touchdowns, just 3 interceptions, and a 112.1 passer rating in five road starts against Philadelphia.

-Brown is one of just three receivers, along with Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson, to post 5 games with 150+ receiving yards since 2019.

The pick: Eagles 27 Vikings 24