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NFL Week 16: Two NFL player props for Saturday's games
We have a pair of NFL games this Saturday, and naturally, we have a player prop for each of them. We're loving these spots for the two pass-catchers on our radar. Let's get the Week 16 weekend started right.
Pat Freiermuth over 25.5 receiving yards (-120 DK)
Pat Freiermuth came up all week for me, and I'm quite surprised we're able to get him at this number.
Ok, I can slightly understand this line, it's Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Still, Rudolph has targeted Freiermuth 13 times in his past two appearances, yielding eight catches.
Freiermuth is facing a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the most receptions per game to TEs, and overall their secondary has been vulnerable to passing success.
Books have the Steelers top TE at a very juiced 2.5 receptions line, suggesting they see 3+ coming his way. When the 'Muth operates with that type of passing volume, he's over this line in 74% of his games dating back to the start of last season, averaging 43.8 yards/game.
Oh, and this man has loved Cincy. He's over in four straight games, averaging 78.5 yards per game. That includes a 9-120 game against them just a few weeks ago.
Stefon Diggs over 67.5 receiving yards (-114 FD)
Diggs and the Bills should be in for a big evening against this porous Chargers secondary. Los Angeles is allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt, the fourth-most passes of 20+ yards per game, and the third-most passing yards in the NFL.
Diggs has been quiet of late, but I like taking a chance on him popping here. Books are expecting more involvement out of Diggs on Saturday, pricing his receptions line at 6.5, juiced to the under. That to me suggests 5-6 receptions at minimum are coming Diggs's way, and when he finds that, he hits this line with ease.
When Diggs has caught 5+ balls, he's over this line in 29 of his past 35 games, averaging 93.3 yards/game. That's the type of consistency I love to see against a soft opponent.
He's the most reliable receiver on this team by far and should be able to break off a few chunk plays in the air to help us hit this over.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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