Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) dives for extra yards. Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL Week 16: Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers betting picks, preview

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 12/21/23

The Buffalo Bills are growing into a popular Super Bowl pick despite still being on the outside of the AFC playoff picture, while the Los Angeles Chargers fired their coach and replaced him with Giff Smith. The betting approach seems simple at first glance, but perhaps not the way you think.

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Chargers: Betting Odds

Spread: Buffalo -12, Over/under: 44 points, Buffalo -750 | Los Angeles +525

The Bills have won two straight games to move to 8-6, blowing out the Cowboys last week 31-10 in a massive win for Buffalo's playoff hopes. Buffalo now owns the NFL's fifth-best point differential and has had a few unlucky bounces keep them being more like 10-4.

Buffalo will need to keep playing strong to wrap the season, as a win the next two weeks coupled with one Miami loss would make Week 18 vs. the Dolphins for the division.

Things aren't looking nearly as bright for the Chargers, who fired Brandon Staley following their 63-21 defeat last Thursday against the Raiders. Easton Stick is still at QB with Justin Herbert done for the year, and it's just a matter of finishing and forgetting this season for Los Angeles.

Buffalo is 6-7-1 ATS and 10-4 to the under. The Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS and also 10-4 to the under.

Betting Picks for Buffalo vs. Los Angeles

Chargers +12

Buffalo is the far better team and it truly doesn't feel close. They are playing as well as anyone in the NFL and are fighting for their playoff hopes the remainder of the season.

We fully expect Josh Allen and Co. to capitalize against this dreadful Chargers secondary and a backup QB in Easton Stick.

With all that being said, a 12-point spread feels like a bit too much for a road team on short rest against a team with a brand new coach. How often do we see a new coach stay competitive or win their first game? Lately, it feels like the majority of the time.

The Chargers are more rested, and while we don't think they win, we'll grab the 12 points here for the team looking for a vibe shift to close out the season.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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