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Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26). Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 15 bets: A player prop for each Saturday game

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 12/15/23

It's a beautiful thing when the NFL has some Saturday games, and it's made even better when all three games offer up some fantastic value for player props. We've got a pick for each game here for a strong Week 15 start.

T.J. Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN)

Before I get to why I love T.J. Hockenson on Saturday, let's address the two negatives working against him. The first is simple: we have Nick Mullens in at quarterback this week, and who knows how effective he can truly be.

The presence of Justin Jefferson (questionable) has had a negative skew on Hockenson's yards this year (51.2 yards/game with him vs. 76 yards/game without him), but the matchup to me still calls for a big game from the Vikings TE.

Cincinnati has been unable to slow down tight ends. Over the past six games, here are the results from opposing TEs who see the Bengals:

Evan Engram: 9 catches, 82 yards
Pat Freiermuth: 9 catches, 120 yards
Mark Andrews: injured on first drive, 2 catches, 23 yards
Dalton Schultz: 4 catches, 71 yards
Dalton Kincaid: 10 catches, 81 yards
George Kittle: 9 catches, 149 yards

It doesn't get much better than that, and now it's Hockenson's turn to capitalize.

When Mullens came in, no player was targeted more than Hockenson's four, with all four targets converting to receptions for 45 yards. I am happy to spin Jefferson's absence or presence as a positive in this game. If he plays, great, less attention on Hockenson from the Cincinnati defense. If he doesn't, or if he has to leave early, great, more targets coming Hockenson's way.

Najee Harris 50+ rushing yards, Jaylen Warren 40+ rushing yards (+167 ESPN)

This is a combo I've run a few times, and it's paid off. Over the last six games, Harris has 60+ yards four times, and Warren has 49+ in five of his last six.

Both should see carries here against an Indianapolis defense allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs.

10 straight RBs to see Indy have gone over their yardage prop, including five straight going for 75+. If you wanted to choose just one, Najee Harris feels like the best choice for the bigger game.

Jahmyr Gibbs 50+ rushing yards (-120 FD)

The late Saturday game is another that looks best for some running back props, but in this instance, I'm focused in on just Jahmyr Gibbs.

First, the matchup. No team is allowing more rushing yards per game than the Denver Broncos at 124.69. A big reason why is that they are also around the top in two key metrics: yards per rush attempt (first) and explosive runs allowed (fifth-most).

Gibbs's longest rush has been a popular play this week, and I certainly support it at 13.5. It's a bit too juiced for me, and considering he has a 20+ yard run in six of his last seven games, I think his standard over should be in play here.

When Gibbs does log a 20+ yard rush, he's over this line in all seven games of his young career, averaging 79.6 rushing yards per game.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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