Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33). Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

NFL futures: Javonte Williams is worth a bet to lead NFL in rushing

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/1/23

It's time to go deep down the board for some future bet value, and it doesn't get much deeper than Javonte Williams leading the NFL in rushing yards at +3500. This is certainly not a bet I'd recommend you put serious units behind, but I'm liking a sprinkle on the Broncos running back a year after from his ACL injury.

Javonte Williams: +3500 to lead NFL in rushing (DraftKings)

I outlined my high-level approach to this market yesterday. I want to find running backs who are facing some of the worst rush defenses in the league. I broke down what teams fit into that bucket earlier this week on my Substack, and a quick look at the schedules brings Denver onto the radar.

The Broncos, and Williams, face five of the projected 10 worst rush defenses, and two of them (Chargers, Raiders) they get to face twice.

What about Sean Payton? Isn't he known as a pass-first coach? On the whole, yes. However, in three of his final four seasons at the helm of the Saints, New Orleans ranked fifth or higher in total rushing attempts per game.

Payton was brought to Denver to make the most of Russell Wilson and this offense, and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see his focus be on the quick passing game and establishing the run.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

In that vein, Williams stands to benefit, and assuming his health, he's the clear top running back on this offense with Samaje Perine behind him likely vulturing goal line duties.

Williams has averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry in his short career, and finally getting the chance to run as the top running back could yield quite the year. I'm excited about his potential, and at just age-23, we have yet to see Williams hit his prime.

We may be a year early, but at +3500, I'm buying some stock.

More must-reads: