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Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL futures bets: Most rushing yards in 2023 season

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/26/23

We recently broke down the futures market for who leads the NFL in passing yards this coming season, and now our attention turns to the rushing yards market.

We've got quite the selection near the top of the board, and it does feel likely to be one of the favorites bringing home the title of rushing leader. Health is of course paramount in this market, and few positions suffer the injuries that running backs tend to suffer. With that in mind, we'll explore both the betting favorites and where we see some value.

Favorites for most rushing yards in 2023

Odds are courtesy of DraftKings.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland (+700)
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis (+800)
Derrick Henry, Tennessee (+850)
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas (+1200)
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota (+1200)
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta (+1400)
Saquon Barkley, NY Giants (+1400)
Tony Pollard, Dallas (+1600)
Miles Sanders, Carolina (+1600)
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco (+2000)
Breece Hall, NY Jets (+2000)
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England (+2000)

Josh Jacobs brought home the 2022 rushing title, finishing the season with 1,653 yards. It was the third time in the past four years that Jacobs finished in the top-10, and with Jimmy Garoppolo the expected starter, plenty of carries seems likely once again for the 25-year-old Las Vegas running back.

Nick Chubb is the favorite and understandably so. He was third last season with 1,525 yards and second in 2021 with 1.259 yards. With Kareem Hunt currently a free agent, more carries may be up for grabs for Chubb in this Cleveland offense.

Derrick Henry led the NFL in rushing in both 2019 and 2020, but one has to fear that his mileage is set to catch up with him. Henry is now 29 and has carried the ball 300+ times in three of his last four seasons.

For that reason, we'd also like to avoid some other older runners on this list, including Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, who will be 28 and 27 by the time the season gets started.

Two bets in this market

Jonathan Taylor +800

The Colts' Jonathan Taylor easily led the NFL in rushing in 2021 in what was his second NFL season. His 1,811 rushing yards were nearly 600 more than the next closest player, and his 5.5 yards per carry mark showcased a player who wasn't simply a volume hog but incredibly efficient with the ball in his hands.

2022 was certainly a down year for both Taylor and the Colts. The Indy RB played just 11 games as he dealt with injuries throughout, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and finishing with 861 yards.

Assuming his health, Taylor feels like a tremendous bet here in 2023. Indianapolis is beginning a new era, having drafted QB Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick. Whether it's Richardson starting the year at quarterback or Gardner Minshew, Taylor figures to be the featured element of the Colts offense.

At just 24 years old, there's every reason to expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor. We like this bet even more if it's Richardson starting from Day One. His rushing presence figures to open up plenty of lanes for Taylor, as defenses will have to account for what the young passer can do with his legs.

Bijan Robinson +1400

Bijan Robinson is one of the most hyped running back prospects in quite some time, with the most recent comp Saquon Barkley, who was taken second overall in 2018. Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott were the past two volume running backs to be taken so high, and that's the type of role Robison figures to have from the offset with Atlanta.

Can a rookie runner really lead the NFL in rushing yards? Why not? Elliott did just that in 2016, finishing with 1,631 yards, and Barkley was second in his rookie season, tallying 1,307 yards.

Robinson is an every-down back with low mileage, and the Falcons figure to get him going immediately. You don't draft a running back as a foundational piece for the next decade, you draft them for what they can do right now.

Atlanta coach Arthur Smith came from Tennessee, where Derrick Henry was the featured back that twice won the rushing title. He knows what a talented RB can do to an offense, and if 2022 is any indication, Smith's preference is to run the football.

The Falcons were third in the NFL in rushing yards per game last season and led the NFL with 559 rushing attempts. That all points to a huge year coming for Robinson, our favorite value play in this market.

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