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NFL futures, 2 Dallas Cowboys bets: Can Dallas turn it around?
Dak Prescott. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)

NFL futures, 2 Dallas Cowboys bets: Can Dallas turn it around?

We turn our attention back to the NFC and dive into the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys haven't found much postseason success in 30 years. Is 2023 the year their fortune turns?

Cowboys high-level odds

  • Wins: Over 9.5 (-165) | Under 9.5 (+140)
  • To Win Division: +190
  • To Win Conference: +600
  • To Win Super Bowl: +1400

Dallas finished second in the NFC East in 2022 with a 12-5 record, winning a Wild Card round game and falling in the Divisional Round to San Francisco.

Dallas' +125 point differential was fifth-best in the NFL, made more impressive by the fact that they needed Cooper Rush to play a significant amount of games as their quarterback.

The Cowboys no doubt have talent throughout. Dak Prescott may have plateaued a bit as a quarterback, but in the NFC he's still one of the best options at the position. Ceedee Lamb is an elite receiver, their offensive line remains one of the best starting fives in the NFL, and the defense is packed to the gills with studs, namely Micah Parsons.

And yet, postseason success has eluded them. Dallas has not been to an NFC Championship Game since 1995 despite a bevy of quality chances. They have their work cut out for them this season in the form of divisional rival Philadelphia, but the conference beyond that should offer them a comfortable playoff spot barring injuries.

Two futures bets to make on the Dallas Cowboys

Tony Pollard 100+ rushing yards in 8+ regular season games (+800 DK)

Found under "Team Specials"
Found this fun value spot that seems like a solid horse to hitch ourselves to. In case you missed it, Ezekiel Elliott was released and Tony Pollard was slapped with the franchise tag, suggesting 2023 is the year Pollard gets his chance to show what he can do as a featured back.

In a time share, it's been clear for at least a year now that Pollard is better than Elliott, averaging 5.1 yards per carry over the past four seasons.

It doesn't feel unreasonable to suggest Pollard could see 300 carries this season, assuming of course he stays on the field. As we've seen with the running back market, teams for the most part are catching on that RBs don't last long, and playing on a one-year tag I'd expect the Cowboys to get the most on their investment in the 26-year old Pollard.

In his prime, Elliott saw 300+ carries three times. In 2016, Elliott finished with eight 100+ yard rushing games. In 2018, he also saw eight such games, and 2019 yielded seven.

In two games without Elliott last season, Pollard finished with 131 and 115 rushing yards. The path is there for a big season; I like taking a chance on a season-long market like this, at this price.

Dallas to lose in Divisional Round (+380 DK)

Found under "Futures: Team Result"
Come on, let's have a little fun. Dallas losing in the playoffs is a tale as old as time. A bet here is hardly even a fade of the team (OK, just a little). It's no small feat to be one of the last four teams standing in your conference, and the Cowboys seem well-equipped to get there.

Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Trevon Diggs, Stephon Gilmore and rookie Mazi Smith make up just a portion of this defense. This side of the ball has serious potential to be one of the NFL's best, and that alone should secure them double-digit wins and a playoff berth.

Let's wager a guess that Philly wins the NFC East again, that likely means the Cowboys are one of the top Wild Card teams, with a likely date against either the NFC North or NFC South winner. A matchup with whoever wins that atrocious NFC South would be quite the gift in the Wild Card round, which would only further aid the Cowboys case of advancing a round. 

It's there they meet their bitter end, once again.

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