NFL Contract Expert Projects Massive Deal for Chris Jones. Can the Chiefs Afford It?

As NFL free agency nears with the legal tampering period opening on Monday and free agency fully beginning on Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs are entering the homestretch with pending free agent defensive tackle Chris Jones. The Chiefs would assumedly like to find finality with Jones as soon as possible, giving them the most time and flexibility to sign other players or to determine their post-Jones steps. On the other hand, Jones and his camp could gain additional leverage by hitting free agency, allowing other teams to (legally) submit their best offers, forcing the Chiefs to contend with the open market.

With free agency almost here, one former agent and NFL salary cap and contract expert has projected a major payday for Jones that could test the Chiefs' willingness to commit to Jones at that price point.

Joel Corry of CBS Sports wrote about Jones's potential contract and delivered his best projection of what Jones could sign for this offseason: Four years, $132.5 million total, $90 million guaranteed, averaging $33.125 million per year. Corry went on to explain why he believes Jones could get this massive deal.

[Aaron] Donald sets the pay scale for interior defensive linemen with the three-year, $95 million contract, averaging $31,666,667 per year, he received from the Los Angeles Rams in 2022. [Nick] Bosa replaced Donald as the league's highest-paid non-quarterback a couple of days before the regular season started when he signed a five year, $170 million contract extension, averaging $34 million per year, to end his own holdout. The midpoint of Bosa's and Donald's contracts, which are for $265 million collectively over eight years, is $33.125 million per year.

Jones has repeatedly said he wants to spend his entire career with the Chiefs. Some sort of sizeable hometown discount to accomplish this goal would be a major shock. Jones had so much conviction about his market value during negotiations last year that he racked up $2.25 million of mandatory fines ($50,000 per day) for missing training camp, lost one week's regular-season salary worth $1,083,333 and forfeited a $500,000 workout bonus because he didn't participate in the offseason conditioning program. He should ultimately join Bosa and Donald as the only defensive players in the $30 million-per-year club whether with a new team in free agency or by staying in Kansas City.

What does this projection mean for Chris Jones's future with the Chiefs?

Well... it wouldn't be great. 

As reported by Nate Taylor and Dianna Russini of The Athletic on Feb. 29, "Jones wants a contract that will pay him an average annual salary of $30 million." The duo also noted, "In early September, Jones declined a two-year, fully guaranteed extension with the Chiefs worth $54.5 million, which would have paid him an average annual salary of $27.5 million in 2024 and 2025."

Corry's $90 million guaranteed far surpasses the $54.5 million offered in Taylor and Russini's report, essentially adding an entire guaranteed year for Jones. With some back-of-napkin math, Corry's deal for Jones could reasonably be considered a guaranteed three-year deal worth $90-plus million, depending on the structure. Even if the Chiefs were willing to leap up from their September offer of $27.25 million guaranteed per year, perhaps even all the way to $30 million guaranteed per year, would they add an entire guaranteed year at the same cost for Jones's age-32 season in 2026? That would be an outlier for general manager Brett Veach. The only member of the 2023 Chiefs who is currently over the age of 30 and is under contract for the 2024 season is tight end Travis Kelce. Jones turns 30 in July.

From cryptic tweets to parade promises, Jones's saga has consistently been one thing over the last two offseasons: dramatic. Jones doesn't mind stoking the fires of speculation, and he's a top-tier player who will make a lot of money this offseason. When might the Chiefs decide the cost is too high? When might Jones decide Kansas City has offered enough money for him to join the three-peat campaign? We'll find out over the next several days.