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Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

NFC South Week 4 predictions: Tampa Bay ends the week in first

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 9/27/23

The Falcons head across the pond to take on the Jaguars, the Panthers seek their first win against the Vikings, and the Bucs travel to the Saints for an early-season divisional showdown in Week 4. Here are our predictions for this weekend's games.

Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars [in London] (9:30 a.m. ET)

Per RotoWire, the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, which bodes well for their ability to contain rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Last week, he was held to 33 yards on 10 carries in Atlanta's 20-6 loss at Detroit. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and wide receiver Tank Dell exposed Jacksonville's secondary last week, and the game may come down to Desmond Ridder's ability to do the same with Drake London.

While the Jaguars have been abysmal rushing the passer this season - Jacksonville ranks 31st (31 percent) in ESPN's pass rush win rate - Atlanta's offensive line has been problematic, too, ranking 25th in pass block win rate (46 percent). Jacksonville (1-2) is one of the more disappointing teams through three weeks, but Atlanta's offense plays directly into the Jags' strength. If it comes down to a battle between quarterbacks Ridder and Trevor Lawrence, we're taking Lawrence.

PREDICTION: Jaguars, 24-19

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (1 p.m. ET)

Injuries have sunk Carolina's season. Starting linebacker Shaq Thompson (leg) is out for the season, corner Jaycee Horn (hamstring) is on injured reserve and safety Xavier Woods (hamstring) will miss four to six weeks after sustaining his injury in Week 3. Minnesota is led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. They lead the league in passing and receiving yards, respectively, and could have a field day against a depleted Carolina secondary.

PREDICTION: Vikings, 31-21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (1 p.m. ET)

Bucs-Saints features a likely battle between quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall and arguably the most heated individual rivalry in the league. 2015 No. 1 pick Jameis Winston will probably start for New Orleans with Derek Carr (shoulder) injured while 2018 first overall pick Baker Mayfield will start for Tampa. Meanwhile, Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans and Saints corner Marshon Lattimore got ejected in a tense Week 2 meeting last year, with each banned from New Orleans and Tampa Bay establishments, respectively.

The Saints seemingly have the edge in Week 4, with their stout secondary matching up well with Tampa's wide receivers. Lattimore has consistently gotten the best of Evans in their one-on-one matchups.

A history of Mike Evans vs. the Saints since Marshon Lattimore was drafted in 2017. pic.twitter.com/y4NYiHHmVE
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 26, 2023

The Bucs rushing offense is terrible, making it difficult for Tampa to move the ball consistently. However, Tampa swept last year's series, and its defensive front headlined by Vita Vea could give a porous Saints offensive line fits. If the game goes down to the wire, we expect Mayfield's mobility to ultimately be the difference in Tampa pulling out a win. Per PFF, among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks under pressure, Mayfield's pressure-to-sack rate is third-lowest at 8.6 percent.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers, 19-16

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