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NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers betting picks, preview
We wrap NFL Sunday with the NFC Championship Game between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. Most of the impartial audience is likely hoping to see the Lions advance to their first Super Bowl, but can they pull it off against a San Francisco team that is playing in its fourth NFC Championship over the past five seasons?
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: Betting Odds
Sunday, Jan. 28, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: San Francisco -7, Over/under: 51 points, Detroit +250 | San Francisco -310
The Lions dispatched the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning 31-23, thanks to a big game from Jared Goff and the running game. Detroit has done what they've been doing for most of the season: let up big plays on defense but continue to answer on offense with one of the deepest units in football.
Detroit has allowed the most explosive passes per game this season and sweeps the board when you look at some of the worst pass defenses in football. It's there that could be their Achilles' heel as they look to deliver the city of Detroit something they haven't even come close to in this franchise's existence.
As for the 49ers, it certainly felt like they escaped the divisional round lucky to be alive. Green Bay outplayed them for most of that game, but a missed field goal and a late drive helped give Brock Purdy and the Niners a 24-21 win.
San Francisco has a loaded roster on both ends, but we'll need to wait and see if star WR Deebo Samuel can make it back on Sunday after injuring his shoulder early Saturday night. Purdy had some sloppy moments and will need to clean it up to take advantage of this Detroit defense.
The 49ers are 9-9 ATS this season, while the Lions are a league-best 13-6 ATS on the year. San Francisco is 10-8 to the over and Detroit is 12-7 to the over.
Betting Picks for Detroit vs. San Francisco
Over 51 points
As we dove into the two conference championship games, this one certainly felt like the more likely contest to offer us prop betting value. The Lions secondary has been a serious liability, and San Francisco has been vulnerable to WR production and running backs catching passes out of the backfield.
As more and more options presented themselves in the player prop market, the logical turn on this game is to double-dip on some fireworks by loading up the over. It certainly helps that these are two of the best betting teams toward the over on the season.
We like the Lions to cover, but we also would not be surprised in the slightest if the 49ers win this game by 10+. Still, Detroit has shown us that they have an elite offense jam-packed with studs who can beat you in a variety of ways. Aaron Jones and the Packers running game just gashed the Niners, and on the season, San Fran typically struggles against star WRs like Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle should find little resistance through the air. Here's to a shootout; we're on the over.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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