New mock draft has surprise at No. 1 overall

The 33rd Team's latest mock draft has a curve ball at the No. 1 overall pick, but it highlights what may be the deciding factor when it comes to which QB is drafted first April 27. It could simply boil down to which team is on the clock first.

In this latest mock draft, Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud was selected first overall by the Indianapolis Colts. The site has the Colts trading up to first overall to select Stroud, one of the consensus top three QBs in the upcoming draft.

Other mock drafts have Alabama's Bryce Young going first overall to the Texans or Kentucky's Will Levis going first to the Panthers.

Conventional wisdom says the Bears, who have promising young quarterback Justin Fields, will trade the first overall pick. The Colts, Panthers and Texans are emerging as the most likely candidates to trade up.

While Young is the No. 1 overall prospect according to Pro Football Focus, he isn't a sure thing to be drafted first if the Colts or Panthers work out a trade with the Bears.

A CBS mock draft linked Stroud to Indianapolis, and The Athletic noted general manager Chris Ballard prefers bigger QBs such as Stroud or Levis. Stroud could be a natural fit with the Colts, staying in the heart of Big Ten country and working alongside skill players such as Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor.

Reports began circulating as early as December that the Panthers were high on Levis and eyed him at sixth overall. Conveniently for Carolina, the Lions hold the sixth overall pick and aren't in need of a QB after Jared Goff exceeded expectations in 2022. 

Las Vegas holds the seventh overall pick and does need a QB, so Carolina likely must trade up to select Levis if he is the QB the team wants.

If the order in which the QBs are drafted is dependent on when each team makes its selection, Young could fall in the Texans lap at second overall.

Stroud and Levis aren't viewed as highly on big boards, which might make a trade up to first overall unnecessary. It doesn't make sense to trade draft picks to move up if a team can stay where it is and still choose the player it wants.

Stroud might be the best QB in this class, and the Colts could look like geniuses if they do zero in on him as their choice. But Indianapolis might not need to trade up to first to get its guy.

We'll have to wait and see. The Colts might be wise to do the same on draft night.