Miami Dolphins Week 17 playoff picture: A massive opportunity awaits on Sunday

The Miami Dolphins managed to overcome a big hurdle as the 2023 finish line approaches, defeating the Dallas Cowboys 22-20 on a last-second Jason Sanders 29-yard field goal.  With the win, the Dolphins clinched just their fourth playoff spot since 2001.  

Now, the Dolphins have their eye on far bigger things, and they can scratch one of those off the list on Sunday afternoon against the Baltimore Ravens. 

The Ravens at 12-3 hold the top seed in the AFC by virtue of their emphatic 33-19 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night.  Kansas City's 20-14 loss to the Raiders puts them two games behind the Dolphins with two weeks to play. 

Here are the AFC standings through Week 16: 

1) Baltimore 12-3
2) Miami 11-4
3) Kansas City 9-6
4) Jacksonville 8-7
5) Cleveland 10-5
6) Buffalo 9-6
7) Indianapolis 8-7

In the hunt: Houston 8-7, Pittsburgh, 8-7, Cincinnati 8-7, Las Vegas 7-8, Denver 7-8

The Dolphins now face a scenario where they will likely need to win both of their final games in order to finish above the Ravens after Baltimore's win.  The Ravens finish with Pittsburgh at home, a game they will be substantially favored in, so a win over the Ravens and a loss to Buffalo would likely see Miami as the #2 seed.  However, a win in both games for Miami would put the Dolphins at the #1 seed at 13-4 and with a much-needed first round bye. 

As for the AFC East, the Dolphins sit two games in front of Buffalo with two games to play. 

1) Miami 11-4
2) Buffalo 9-6
3) New York Jets 6-9
4) New England 4-11

It's simple for Miami.  Any combination of a win or a tie by Miami or a loss or a tie by Buffalo over the final two weeks hands the AFC East to the Dolphins for the first time since 2008.  Buffalo gets New England this weekend at home, so the odds are strong that Miami will need to avoid a loss in Baltimore on Sunday to avoid a winner-takes-all matchup with the resurgent Bills for the division title in Week 18.   

According to the New York Times' playoff tracker, the Dolphins' chances of winning the division jumped from 61% last week to 79% after the win over the Cowboys, while the Bills' dropped from 39% to 21%. 

Miami could end up as high as the #1 overall seed or as low as #6.  That's a huge swing.  However, a win on Sunday would mean the Dolphins can finish no lower than the #2 overall seed.  

As such, Sunday in Baltimore marks one of the biggest opportunities - and challenges - that the Dolphins have been presented with in a long time.