Miami Dolphins ceiling and floor for 2023

The Miami Dolphins overcame a late-season skid to reach the wild-card round in 2022 and nearly upset the AFC East champion Bills with a third-string quarterback. With Tua Tagovailoa in full health and ready to lead the offense, perhaps this is the year Miami finally wins a playoff game.

Now that the 2023 season is finally upon us, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL. Here's what we said about Miami back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 11-6 (originally 12-5)

The Dolphins have plenty of star power to contend for a championship, but in light of recent injuries, we're revising our initial prediction and tacking on another loss to their record. All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, this offseason's marquee acquisition, will likely be out until December after tearing his meniscus in training camp, which will obviously hurt a defense that allowed the ninth-most points last season (399). 

Additionally, the offense is dealing with injuries to start the season. Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead is already out for Week 1 with back, knee and ankle injuries, and running back Jeff Wilson Jr. will miss the first four games of the season after being placed on IR. 

Even so, as long as Miami has Tagovailoa along with receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the team will be in a position to win any game. Not counting the two games Tagovailoa exited early from because of concussions, Miami was 8-3 and had a top-five offense when he started. 

Floor: 7-10 (originally 9-8) 

Considering the injury situation coupled with having the second-most difficult schedule based on their opponents' 2022 records, it’s just as possible for the Dolphins to finish last in the division as it is for them to make the playoffs. 

After all, the division should be far more competitive than it was last season now that the Jets have added future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, while Buffalo and New England have improved as well. If the Dolphins endure another lengthy losing streak like the five-game slump they had from Weeks 13 through 17 last year, they might not have the same opportunity to turn things around.  

Miami is also at risk of starting this season off with a loss. Even before Armstead was ruled out on Friday, Miami was heading into Inglewood to face the Chargers as a three-point underdog, per OddsChecker. Should the Chargers beat Miami, it must bounce back with a victory over the Patriots in Week 2, or the season could begin to unravel before it has really gotten started.