Five ways Steelers can stun Bills in wild-card round

The Steelers (10-7) are 10-point underdogs in their wild-card matchup against the Bills (11-6) on Sunday. But here are five reasons why Pittsburgh could pull off the upset in Buffalo.

1. Bad weather game

According to The Weather Channel, a high of 25 degrees, a 42 percent chance of precipitation and 22 miles per hour winds are expected in Buffalo on Sunday. That means there will likely be a heavy dose of the running game, which is the Steelers' bread and butter.

RB Najee Harris has been hot as of late, rushing for 312 yards and four touchdowns on Pittsburgh's three-game win streak. He has a good opportunity to continue his dominance on the ground against the Bills, who have the 28th-ranked defense in yards per carry allowed in the NFL.

2. Sticking with the hot hand

Head coach Mike Tomlin named QB Mason Rudolph the starter for the fourth straight week, saying he wants to stick with the "hot hand." That's exactly what Rudolph has had over the past three games, completing 53-of-71 passes (74.6 percent) for 716 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Not turning the football over will be a priority for the Steelers if they want to have a chance to win the game. It won't be easy against the seventh-best defense in passing yards allowed per game (196.6), but Rudolph hasn't given the team a reason to not stick with him as the starter yet.

3. Fitzpatrick is back

Losing NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate LB T.J. Watt, who's already ruled out after suffering a Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 18, is a big blow to the defense. But with one All-Pro leaving the lineup, another is expected to return. Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick told reporters on Sunday that he "will play" if Pittsburgh got into the playoffs.

Tomlin didn't confirm or deny Fitzpatrick's comments but said that he'll be limited early in the week, adding "They're optimistic in his inclusion." Getting back Fitzpatrick, who has been a ball hawk with 17 interceptions over the past five years, would be a big boost to the defense.

4. Turnover-prone QB

Bills QB Josh Allen leads the NFL with 44 total touchdowns (29 passing, 15 rushing). However, he also has the second most interceptions (18) in the NFL this season, throwing at least one in all but three games.

Allen will still make big plays as he seems to do every week, but if Pittsburgh's defense can capitalize on his sometimes sloppy play, it may give its offense enough chances to win the game. Winning the turnover battle doesn't always guarantee a win, but it certainly helps a lot.

5. No deep threat?

Buffalo could be without one of its top playmakers on Sunday. WR Gabe Davis suffered a PCL sprain last weekend and his status is now up in the air. That's good news for the Steelers, who were torched by the fourth-year wide receiver when the two teams last played in 2022.

Davis had three catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns in the Bills 38-3 smackdown last season.