Denver Broncos ceiling and floor for 2023

After hiring head coach Sean Payton, a former Super Bowl champion, the Denver Broncos are attempting to spark a quick turnaround after missing the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season. 

How much better Denver will be from a season ago, when it finished 5-12, is still up for debate. Here's our best guess at worst- and best-case scenarios for the Broncos in 2023.

Ceiling: 10-7

Payton is an elite coach who can immediately turn a franchise into a winner. As Saints HC from 2006 to 2021, he won 152 games — sixth among active HCs — and seven division titles. He's also an offensive guru who can supercharge a unit that finished last in scoring in 2022.

Denver's defense can help it win games after it finished eighth in yards allowed last season. Third-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II is a budding star who earned a 2022 First-Team All-Pro nod. The Broncos also recently signed edge-rusher Frank Clark, a two-time Super Bowl champion and three-time Pro Bowler.

Plus, the Broncos have an easy stretch from Week 1 to Week 5. (Complete schedule analysis here). In that span, they only face one team that made the playoffs (Miami) last season, and three of the five games are at home. Denver could use the favorable portion of the schedule to launch itself into the playoff hunt early.

Floor: 7-10

The biggest question on the Broncos is quarterback Russell Wilson, who posted career lows in passer rating (84.4) and passing TDs (16) in 15 games last season. If he struggles again, Denver will endure another below-.500 season. Backup QB Jarrett Stidham has only started two games in three seasons, so he's inexperienced and can't carry a franchise.

To get over .500, Denver's discipline and late-game execution — two areas in which it struggled in 2022 — must improve. The Broncos tied for second in penalties (113) and lost nine one-possession games last season. Even a great coach like Payton may not fix this problem in one season.

The AFC West is a difficult division, which could result in Denver losing three or four games. The Broncos have lost 15 straight games to the Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions and the favorite to return to the title game, per OddsChecker. The Chargers could make another postseason appearance and vault to the next level if quarterback Justin Herbert becomes a bona fide MVP candidate.