NBA best bets: Top 5 betting picks for Wednesday, Jan. 31

Bulls vs. Hornets

Wednesday, Jan. 31, 7 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Bulls -2.5 (Caesars)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Bulls absolutely own the Hornets. Chicago has won and covered in six of the last seven meetings, including the past five consecutively.

Chicago has struggled lately, losing three of its last four games, and now it finds itself on the second night of a back-to-back. But a game against the Hornets — who have the second-worst against the spread (ATS) record in the NBA — is just the remedy to cure a rough patch.

The Bulls are 4-2 ATS in their last six games — but against some lighter competition. They covered against the Raptors, Grizzlies, Suns and Blazers, but that's fine for this cap. The Hornets are about as light as it gets from a competition standpoint, and Chicago is 9-2-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage below 40%.

Lamelo Ball is doubtful for Charlotte, and Miles Bridges is probable. As long as Alex Caruso and Demar DeRozan aren't announced out at the last minute, I don't care who else goes for either team.

This is a get-right spot for the Bulls, and I expect them to get right. Back Chicago down to -5 with Caruso and Derozan in.

Pick: Bulls -2.5

Kings vs. Heat

Wednesday, Jan. 31, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 3s (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

With the Heat’s trade for Terry Rozier, the team is undergoing a series of changes. One of those modifications has been how Rozier and Tyler Herro share the floor, because they both have similar skill sets with their ability to score at all three levels.

The change has come via Herro’s shot selection. Prior to the trade, Herro had exceeded his 3.5 3s line in 57% of games but is now 4-out-of-5 with Rozier. He actually is taking fewer total shots per game, but there has been an uptick from 8.2 3PA prior to the trade to 9.6 in the five games after.

This is a significant swing: Herro was taking 43.1% of his shots from 3-point range before Rozier but an incredible 60% from 3 after. This aligns with some of his comments to the media about being a team player and how being a spot-up shooter is something that’s valuable.

Considering Herro is shooting 40.3% from 3-point range, more volume from deep is a good thing.

In a matchup against the Kings, a team that allows opponents to shoot 40% from 3 — the second-highest mark in the NBA — I like Herro to exceed his 3.5 3s prop.

Pick: Tyler Herro Over 3.5 3s

Pelicans vs. Rockets

Wednesday, Jan. 31, 8 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points (BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

Zion Williamson has a great matchup against the Houston Rockets in this Wednesday night contest. While his fellow frontcourt partner, Jonas Valanciunas, has struggled with fouls against the Rockets’ Alperen Sengun, Williamson has dominated on the interior.

In three games against Sengun over the last two seasons, Williamson has scored 26, 24 and 28 points, with two of the three games coming alongside both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram. Williamson has the best matchup in this spot, especially without Tari Eason.

Williamson has exceeded this line in just over half of his games this year, but against a Rockets interior that does not have anyone as strong nor as fast as him, he should be able to attack the rim with ease.

I like him to exceed his 22.5 Points prop.

Pick: Zion Williamson Over 22.5 Points

Bucks vs. Trail Blazers

Wednesday, Jan. 31, 10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Malcolm Brogdon Over 16.5 Points (-115, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

On the other side of Damian Lillard's return, Malcolm Brogdon gets to face his old team again, and I like him over 16.5 points. Lately, every time I've looked up, I've seen Brogdon gettin' buckets.

He's over 16.5 points in five of his last six, and the only miss was 16 flat. In that stretch, he's averaging 21.7 points per game on 47/47/97 stretch, which isn't even that ridiculous (from an efficiency standpoint) for Brogdon for a six-game period.

Also, blah blah blah Milwaukee's perimeter defense, you know the rest. Uncle Malcolm for 17 or more on ESPN.

Pick: Malcolm Brogdon Over 16.5 Points (-115)

Damian Lillard Over 25.5 Points (-105 BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Though I am still seeing a slight edge here, this recommendation is based largely on feel.

Damian Lillard is returning to Portland tonight. The split between Portland and Dame wasn't ideal, but tonight on ESPN, you know he's gonna smile, wave, get a moving tribute video, and then try to put 40 in their eyehole on the court he's done it so many times before.

I think so many people are going to bet this that it'll be one of the most popular plays of the night, which may drive it up to 26.5, and I'd still take it. I might even sprinkle on him to get 30 or more points if I could get it at +150 or better odds.

From a numbers standpoint, Lillard has gone over 25.5 points in five of his last nine, and won't face a ton of resistance against the Blazers, with respect to Malcolm Brogdon, whose over I'm also on tonight.

Pick: Damian Lillard Over 25.5 Points (-105)