NBA best bets: Expert picks for Friday, Feb. 23

Raptors vs. Hawks

Friday, Feb. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Jalen Johnson Over 24.5 PR (Caesars)

By Joe Dellera

Jalen Johnson has been tremendous for the Hawks, especially when he has seen extended run. Clint Capela returns tonight, but he will be on a minutes restriction and Onyeka Okongwu will be out.

This is a strong matchup against a Raptors team that has struggled in terms of defense (22nd in aDRTG) and rebounding (21st in RB%) all season.

In the one game Johnson played against them with 30-plus minutes since his role expanded, he recorded 17 points and 12 rebounds. In the two games he has played without Okongwu, he had games of 37 and 31 PR.

I expect Johnson to exceed 24.5 PR tonight.

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 24.5 PR

Clippers vs. Grizzlies

Friday, Feb. 23, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Vince Williams Jr. Over 11.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

It was stunning to me to find this listed at 11.5 anywhere.

Vince Williams Jr. has gone over 11.5 points in his last nine games and in 14 of his last 16. It was just -140, but I used a DraftKings boost to put it at +107. Chances are this pops to 12.5 by tip-off, and I'd still go over.

The VCU product has dropped 13 or more points in 12 of those aforementioned 16 games. He also scored exactly 12 in two of his last three.

Williams has been one of my favorite players to bet this season, and I'll gladly take his over against a Clippers team that will be traveling from Oklahoma City for the second game of a back-to-back.

Pick: Vince Williams Jr. Over 11.5 Points (-140)

Heat vs. Pelicans

Friday, Feb. 23, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Jimmy Butler went over 21.5 points in five of his seven games before the All-Star break, and for good measure, he scored over 22.5 points in those five.

Why is that relevant? Because Butler averaged about 26-6-6 after last year's All-Star break. I'm expecting another surge this year following the break, though perhaps not quite to that effect.

Tyler Herro was also downgraded to questionable with a foot injury ahead of Friday's contest. I jumped on Jimmy over 21.5 points because I think he can get this either way, but if Herro's out, you'd expect the prop to elevate some.

In general, I'd play this up to 22.5 points, but I might go even higher if Herro sits.

Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 Points (-125)

Bam Adebayo

Under 31.5 PR & 36.5 PRA (ESPN BET)

By Joe Dellera

Bam Adebayo and the Heat take on the Pelicans in New Orleans on Friday. While this is the second game of a back-to-back for New Orleans, it's Miami's first game out of the All-Star break, so it should have a slight rest advantage.

Despite the rest, this is a tougher spot for Bam Adebayo. The Heat return Jimmy Butler, so even if Tyler Herro sits, they'll have an influx of offense.

This is a tougher spot for Bam given the size New Orleans has in its frontcourt with Jonas Valanciunas, Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr.

New Orleans limits shots at the rim and has the league's sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Rating as well. Couple this with the 10th-best rebounding percentage, and it will be difficult for Bam to rack up stats.

Bam has hit this 31.5 PR line in 51% of games this season, but it drops to 43% when playing alongside Butler. The hit rate comes in at just 44% for PRA on the season and 29% with Butler.

I was debating both the PR and PRA lines, but I'm settling on splitting my wager. I'm finding an edge on both PR and PRA, but the assists are a touch more narrow despite the hit rates.

Pick: Bam Adebayo Under 31.5 PR & 36.5 PRA